Tropical Storm Emily

[Localonthe8s]

i say emily will strike kansas city

[Mike M]

i say emily will strike kansas city

Sounds right

[Mr. Rainman]

Latest model runs from 00Z. All the tracks have taken a rather noticeable jump to the east, quite a few offshore.

[KevOwensby]

i say emily will strike kansas city

We got 1.62" of rain all of July in Topeka. There's cracks in the ground that would swallow a buffalo. Tropical moisture wouldn't hurt. It hit 109 today here breaking a record since 1980.

On the real note of Emily: Kinda surprised TWC isn't hyping this up already... I suppose it's coming, but really hardly any mention of it now that it's become an actual storm. Maybe they don't want another Don situation making them look kinda foolish?

[TWCToday]

Rule #1. Don't hypecast or do any variation of it.

Don't tell the media that!

[phw115wvwx]

Any of you can make an initial guess as to where it will hit right now, but realize that when you put yourself out there early that you'll face scrutiny in this field.  Do you have enough confidence in your forecast to bet your money on it?  That's how you ought to think about it.  If you do, you need to be prepared to explain yourself with good reasons to defend your forecast.  We have lives and property at risk, so let's please not turn this issue into a major feud here.  You're more than welcome to critique others, but don't turn those into personal attacks.

My opinion is that FL doesn't have to panic yet but simply monitor the progress of Emily.  After all, look at NHC's forecast track.  There's more confidence that Emily will go through Haiti and the Dominican Republic.  The mountains in those two countries have torn up many good tropical cyclones in the past.  Since I have reasonable doubts, I'm going to wait until I see more evidence that it will survive and move closer.

[Mike M]

From the looks of things, this storm is gonna take a similar track that 1999's Floyd did. I hope we get impact from this.

[twcctornado77]

I thnk Emily will pull a Floyd and go right up the Eastern Seaboard, landfalling between Charleton and Myrtle Beach, SC.

[Donovan]

Emily looks better IMO this morning! Majority of the models have been keeping it below/just below hurricane strength. Looks like the mountains on the major islands out there might slow this system down and cause it to weaken significantly combined with some shear possibly to the north ot it, but I don't think that will do too much damage to the system.

[Localonthe8s]

I wish we had a cat 4+ hurricane making US landfall. Even though it'll cause more harm than good, I, for some reason, think the rain from such a system is a much needed relief

[toxictwister00]

Something worth noting, as of the 11pm advisory, Emily is stationary.

[Eric]

I wish we had a cat 4+ hurricane making US landfall. Even though it'll cause more harm than good, I, for some reason, think the rain from such a system is a much needed relief

It's very possible to get a decent soaking rain with a tropical storm or even a tropical depression.  An area in need of rain doesn't have to get hit by a category 4 hurricane in order to solve the problem.  And the additional effects of a category 4 hurricane - serious wind damage, not to mention the storm surge and vastly increased risk of tornadoes - makes such a scenario FAR more dangerous than need be.

[Eric]

Something worth noting, as of the 11pm advisory, Emily is stationary.

As I understand it, Emily is in a process of reorganization.  Finding the center of circulation has been hard enough, and it seems as if the system is still working out exactly where it's going to be, especially considering the shear, meaning the circulation, like Don, is probably tilted across levels.

[Localonthe8s]

Yeah, but think about it, we will get into full fledged storm alert mode

[Mr. Rainman]

The models keep shifting east and east with every run....again, models can change, but I'm starting to doubt more and more that this storm poses a definite direct threat to the U.S. mainland. We're still four days out, though, so let's see.