That's all I can say...like previously stated, I'm sure that Miami meteorologists are warning their viewers, because they know that if it doesn't impact them, it will come close. And no, I am not a hypercaster. If there is a large hook echo ~30 miles away and moving towards a large city, are you going to wait until it is right up on them to let them know of the impending danger? I also wasn't aware that there was a 'weather rulebook"...
As it's been stated
more than once, what was shown on the models today of a Florida hit could easily be wrong. It's possible they have incorrectly projected the location of where the LLC was. If tonight most of the runs were to do a total 180 and go back to a recurve w/ no US landfall what would your forecast be then? If you noticed the model spreads throughout today, there was still a lot of diverging beyond the short range (48 hrs out) which leaves reasonable doubt in the solutions.
One rule of weather forecasting: Never model hug to what each run says, especially when it's still medium to long range. That's a big no no. There are still a lot of things that have to be addressed long before it gets to the SE coast such as, how much will it be disrupted going over DR/Haiti? How strong will it be afterward? Will it be strong/weak enough to be/not be picked up quickly by the trough? Still plenty of questions, but not a whole lot of confident answers. I'm not trying to attack you or anything, I'm just trying to relay some friendly advice. I personally wouldn't make a call like that until at least 2 days at the earliest where there's more confidence in the models.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with mentioning the possibility of a landfall in Flordia or the SE coast, but you should also keep in mind the other plausible possibilities that it could go into the GOM if it stays very weak or it could miss any landfall in the US period and quickly recurves, and even as Patrick mentioned earlier not have an Emily to track at all once it's passed the islands.
