Tropical Storm Emily

[TWCToday]

The models were always showing a curve back out to sea with only a few outliers going into the Gulf or Florida. The NHC track was more a compromise and their own discussions indicated the low confidence of the forecast. This is a tricky storm since it is very poorly organized. Over the next few days it is going to be going over some very rough terrain too that will make intensity forecasts tricky. Recently though it has been trying to get its act together.

[TWCToday]

Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone...at this time, that looks like the most reasonable location, and people need as much notice as possible. I'm pretty sure that local Miami meteorologists aren't brushing this off...

That is exactly what you shouldn't do this far out. Everyone along the Gulf and East Coast should always be prepared for that big hit. At this point this far out the best you can do is monitor the situation. By making landfall predictions this far out you only scare people or throw people off on what to believe. I spoke with the NHC director recently and he talked about how when people look at the 5 day cone they A. Don't think it will hit , B. Think it will weaken, C. Think it will hit in the center of the cone and nobody else.

Take a look at this chart and look at forecast accuracy.


Perhaps when making predictions you should back them up with facts and reasoning (besides saying its in the center of the cone). Start looking at model and satellite data.

[ruhgster]

Here is a perfect example on why this storm is so hard to forecast based on models right now, try to give me an intensity forecast based on this.

http://image5.flhurricane.com/images/2011/clarki5latest.png

[phw115wvwx]

There's something you all should know about the forecast cone, and NHC kindly quotes it on their site:

Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

So, you can only expect the center to stay in the cone about 2/3 of the time with an average storm, which is a really significant statistic.  The situations around Emily don't make this forecast average at all.  That spaghetti plot above looks like the models are tossing a salad with the spaghetti.

[twcctornado77]

I think Emily's gonna fire on and off until it reaches Wilmington, NC.

[Mr. Rainman]

Donovan showed off his forecast earlier, so I figured I might as well show mine. The following is my model discussion and how my forecast goes by that. And yes, the policies have been resolved. We have to wait for NHC to call a system now; the bosses saw our point.  This is a little long, so mods, if you have to trim it down, go ahead. This is the only time I'm posting my forecast on the forums.

...Model Discussion...
No significant changes have been made in intensity or track forecasts from the 11 AM update.

The 18Z model runs continue to show growing consensus of Emily moving to the NW by 24 hours out...with many models taking the center of the storm directly over Santo Domingo by 36 hours. After this...models split. BAMS and BAMD take the most western route...taking Emily over Cuba and towards the Keys before heading towards the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the models take her NW past the Dominican Republic and Haiti towards the Bahamas.

At this point...models vary again...disagreeing how long Emily will maintain it's NW track before turning to the NE. However...at this time...no models currently take the center of Emily over any portion of the East Coast.

Intensity models are currently all over the place...causing great uncertainty in the forecast. Models are in good agreement in the next 24 hours that Emily will intensify gradually...but after 24 hours split into a variety of scenarios. Will not go into details over the specific models...but it is worth mentioning that almost all models have Emily at hurricane strength by 120 hours. Again...it is important to emphasize that interaction with land and forecasted environmental conditions make intensity forecasts difficult.

EDIT: Trimmed down at moderator's request.

[toxictwister00]

Donovan showed off his forecast earlier, so I figured I might as well show mine. The following is my model discussion and how my forecast goes by that. And yes, the policies have been resolved. We have to wait for NHC to call a system now; the bosses saw our point.  This is a little long, so mods, if you have to trim it down, go ahead. This is the only time I'm posting my forecast on the forums.

...Model Discussion...
No significant changes have been made in intensity or track forecasts from the 11 AM update.

The 18Z model runs continue to show growing consensus of Emily moving to the NW by 24 hours out...with many models taking the center of the storm directly over Santo Domingo by 36 hours. After this...models split. BAMS and BAMD take the most western route...taking Emily over Cuba and towards the Keys before heading towards the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the models take her NW past the Dominican Republic and Haiti towards the Bahamas.

At this point...models vary again...disagreeing how long Emily will maintain it's NW track before turning to the NE. However...at this time...no models currently take the center of Emily over any portion of the East Coast.

Intensity models are currently all over the place...causing great uncertainty in the forecast. Models are in good agreement in the next 24 hours that Emily will intensify gradually...but after 24 hours split into a variety of scenarios. Will not go into details over the specific models...but it is worth mentioning that almost all models have Emily at hurricane strength by 120 hours. Again...it is important to emphasize that interaction with land and forecasted environmental conditions make intensity forecasts difficult.

EDIT: Trimmed down at moderator's request.

I couldn't agree more. Emily is looking the best she has looked in her entire lifespan right now. I think she has a decent shot at peaking to 60-65mph before running into land the next 36 hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[Mr. Rainman]

Latest satellite imagery shows convection just exploded around Emily's center in the last few hours...and then I got this image sent to me just a few minutes ago. I have no idea what to think about it. 

[phw115wvwx]

Latest satellite imagery shows convection just exploded around Emily's center in the last few hours...and then I got this image sent to me just a few minutes ago. I have no idea what to think about it. 

That's a satellite brightness map.  The red colors are the colder cloud tops, which you can tell by looking at the Kelvin temperature scale on your plot.  It means that Emily is finally beginning to develop deep convection, which is a signal that it could finally be getting its act together.

[Lightning]

looking at the drought monitor GA/FL will get rain they desperately need

The drought has gotten better, though, in Georgia and Florida. No D4 areas (exceptional) in Florida, like there had been and much less areas of exceptional drought in Georgia. Still, they do need more rain to help out more and hopefully they'll get it.

[Lightning]

Excuse me for looking at the NHC forecast and finding out the city in the middle of the cone...at this time, that looks like the most reasonable location, and people need as much notice as possible. I'm pretty sure that local Miami meteorologists aren't brushing this off...

That is exactly what you shouldn't do this far out. Everyone along the Gulf and East Coast should always be prepared for that big hit. At this point this far out the best you can do is monitor the situation. By making landfall predictions this far out you only scare people or throw people off on what to believe. I spoke with the NHC director recently and he talked about how when people look at the 5 day cone they A. Don't think it will hit , B. Think it will weaken, C. Think it will hit in the center of the cone and nobody else.

Take a look at this chart and look at forecast accuracy.


Perhaps when making predictions you should back them up with facts and reasoning (besides saying its in the center of the cone). Start looking at model and satellite data.

The thing is, do not look at the center of the cone. Look at the entire cone. Anyone in the cone should pay attention. Not just the people in the center.

[TWCToday]

This is interesting and more concerning.


THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.

[toxictwister00]

This is interesting and more concerning.


THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.

Which ridge? The Bermuda ridge? If so that is interesting.

[Eric]

The local media in central Florida is generally sending Emily farther and farther to the east of here.

[Pop Light Brown]

Looks like Emily's center has become exposed as the thunderstorms are now south and southeast of the center.

I'm also noticing that Emily has yet to make that turn to the northwest toward Hispanola as forecasted the past few days. If and when she does make that turn, she may not go over the middle of the island, but over the western part of the island (Haiti).

I also have an issue with the forecast track. That is quite a hard right Emily is forecasted to make when she gets east of Florida/Georgia. I can't see a turn that sharp.