Tropical Storm Debby

[toxictwister00]

It might just sit and spin along the GC missing the trough and the ridge unfortunately. It should come my way, we still need the rain.

[Mr. Rainman]

NHC has halted its westerly track altogether and has Debby continuing north. Debby is no longer expected to become a hurricane. The warnings in Louisiana have been discontinued.

[Zach]

Debby gave me (here in Thonotosassa) a tornado warning!!

[phw115wvwx]

I can envision a third possibility where both models are wrong, and Debby just moves slowly northward and stalls out over the Southeast before something finally boots it eastward.

Apparently, NHC now agrees with what I envisioned a few hours ago in my last post quoted above!   Have a look at the 5 PM EDT advisory track on NHC's website.

[twcfan68]

Darn. They don't need any more rain around the Mobile-Pensacola region like Louisiana does. I somehow knew it was going to miss my area. Good call, Patrick!

[TWCCraig]

I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby. A directly north track is not out of the question though like what Patrick said.

[phw115wvwx]

I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby.

The reason is because the ECMWF has been the better model over the GFS by a wide margin during the past months.  It certainly weighs on you as a forecaster when you have that information.  I'm worried neither will be right and may follow the new track displayed now.  It's a really challenging forecast, and we're all struggling in trying to figure out where Debby will go.

[WeatherWitness]

Though it's still too early to tell, I struggle to see any western track with the system anymore.  I see several possibilities, and it's still questionable.   Will this thing travel north and make landfall somewhere at the Florida panhandle then continue traveling north, will it travel north then turn to the northeast, or will it continue moving northeast, and off to the Atlantic Ocean?

I feel so sorry for those residents in the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama.  I am sure they were watching and hoping that this system would not move their way because they are already saturated with rainfall, and that's exactly what it's doing.  I am also surprised by how SLOW they expect this system to move!!

[toxictwister00]

The ECMWF is soooooo overrated.  j/k or am I?....

Seriously though, I agree 100% with NHC's current track. I've been thinking that since this morning. Plus I've been hoping against hope we get some heavy rain from it to wipe away this God forsaken drought. 

EDIT: I feel awfully bad about this, but I kinda want the 12z Euro today to be right, Debby sits right over my backyard Wed/Thu and it kills any chance of us hitting the century mark by week's end next week that's always a plus. 

[TWCCraig]

I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby.

The reason is because the ECMWF has been the better model over the GFS by a wide margin during the past months.  It certainly weighs on you as a forecaster when you have that information.  I'm worried neither will be right and may follow the new track displayed now.  It's a really challenging forecast, and we're all struggling in trying to figure out where Debby will go.

True. Though the GFS did well with Beryl as well compared to the ECMWF. My opinion is this, and hope this isn't arguemental, you shouldn't rely on a model just because it's been the most accurate, because that doesn't mean the model will never be wrong. I think the NHC discouraged the other models when making this forecast, and I understand that it was a hard forecast to make considering that the models were 50/50 on it's track. The GFS is the 2nd most accurate model behind the ECMWF. I guess I'm being a little biased here, after all I'm a GFS fanboy 

[Mr. Rainman]

I'm still surprised at NHC's track. I'd estimate that at least 80% of the models have this storm going northeast over North-Central Florida. While the other 20% have it going the other way and they may be part of the more accurate models (ECMWF, which has actually been wrong with Debby), one model, the GFS, has been doing extremely well with Debby.

The reason is because the ECMWF has been the better model over the GFS by a wide margin during the past months.  It certainly weighs on you as a forecaster when you have that information.  I'm worried neither will be right and may follow the new track displayed now.  It's a really challenging forecast, and we're all struggling in trying to figure out where Debby will go.

True. Though the GFS did well with Beryl as well compared to the ECMWF. My opinion is this, and hope this isn't arguemental, you shouldn't rely on a model just because it's been the most accurate, because that doesn't mean the model will never be wrong. I think the NHC discouraged the other models when making this forecast, and I understand that it was a hard forecast to make considering that the models were 50/50 on it's track. The GFS is the 2nd most accurate model behind the ECMWF. I guess I'm being a little biased here, after all I'm a GFS fanboy 

NHC didn't discourage the other ones because they weren't as accurate as the ECMWF. They discounted the other models initially because the scenario that the others played out seemed likely at the time - a ridge building over the central and eastern United States forcing a turn to the west.

[phw115wvwx]

True. Though the GFS did well with Beryl as well compared to the ECMWF. My opinion is this, and hope this isn't arguemental, you shouldn't rely on a model just because it's been the most accurate, because that doesn't mean the model will never be wrong. I think the NHC discouraged the other models when making this forecast, and I understand that it was a hard forecast to make considering that the models were 50/50 on it's track. The GFS is the 2nd most accurate model behind the ECMWF. I guess I'm being a little biased here, after all I'm a GFS fanboy 

Don't worry, Craig.  I enjoy the discussion as it helps you appreciate the complexity of forecasting.   The reason I came up with my solution is because the operational models were designed for the mid-latitudes more than the tropics.  Anytime I see a sharp contrast between the ECMWF and the GFS, I consider the untouched middle ground.  The NAM is currently showing my solution.  While it may be inferior on average to the other models, it can outperform them in tropical weather and severe weather.

[TampaMillTWC88]

An absolutely tremendous wind gust moved through Temple Terrace a few minutes ago. It might have been a small tornado, too. 

EDIT: There are now reports that there was a tornado near the USF/Temple Terrace area.

http://twitter.com/#!/abcactionnews

[toxictwister00]

I honestly can't remember the last time I've seen so much severe weather reports in a single state just from a tropical storm. It's been pretty crazy in the Sunshine State today.

[Localonthe8s]

I honestly can't remember the last time I've seen so much severe weather reports in a single state just from a tropical storm. It's been pretty crazy in the Sunshine State today.

Hey could you get a microburst from a hurricane? I was wondering if a microburst could be the blame because we had a similiar thing happen when Irene struck.