Tropical Storm Chantal

[toxictwister00]

Info still updating
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

EDIT:

[Mr. Rainman]

Oooh, a depression along the Florida coast. How terrifying. 

Regardless, seeing that it slows down, it could be a big flood concern along the Florida coast. We'll see what happens.

[toxictwister00]

Chantal as a top 10 analog track for Chantal.



My preliminary thought right now is we'll have track between Lili (2002) and Bertha (1996).

[Mr. Rainman]

Looking at this again, I am feeling increasingly pessimistic about this storm. Shear is expected to pick up just as the storm gets close to Hispaniola, and this makes me think of what happened to Emily in 2011.

NHC mentioned it, but I'll say it here - there is the possibility Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low or even completely dissipate before it makes it to Florida.

[WeatherWitness]

Looking at this again, I am feeling increasingly pessimistic about this storm. Shear is expected to pick up just as the storm gets close to Hispaniola, and this makes me think of what happened to Emily in 2011.

NHC mentioned it, but I'll say it here - there is the possibility Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low or even completely dissipate before it makes it to Florida.

Ugh, darn it.  Based on no meteorological analysis whatsoever, I wish the storm would be strong enough and take a track between Allen in 1980 and Lili in 2002.  Texas and parts of the west desperately need the rain!

My preliminary thought right now is we'll have track between Lili (2002) and Bertha (1996).

You guys don't need the rain.  We need the rain.

[toxictwister00]

You guys don't need the rain.  We need the rain.

lol, believe me when I say I'm not begging or asking for it to come this way. I'm sure if Florida could turn into a sponge they would squeeze all the feet of rain right onto your area. They DEFINITELY don't want any Chantal coming their way.

Current Forecast Track (06z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013.png

Intesnity Forecast (06z)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png

Atlantic Visible Satellite (Look to the bottom right during the last few frames) It looks pretty good there at a glance.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[phw115wvwx]

From what I can tell, Chantal is heading toward the Bahamas by Friday and could wobble east of Florida for a while as just a depression due to too much wind shear and land interaction.  The reason it will slow is due to an approaching cold front that may stall along the coast and dump more rain over areas that don't need it.  We will see what happens, but it really depends on how strong the Bermuda high becomes later this weekend for steering reasons.

[toxictwister00]

What an interesting change in model guidance today. There's definitely been a westward trend taking place from 24 hrs. ago. In fact, quite a few models make a hard left turn into the northern Gulf once past the East Coast of FL.

If the westward trend continues, Hispanola might become a non-factor in Chantal's demise. Wind shear and Cuba would still be an issue though, in addition, Chantal won't slow down! Moving at 26 mph isn't going allow for Chantal to intensify efficiently, it needs to be moving more in the 10-15 mph range.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013.png

The intensity forecast is quite a shift as well, before it was expected to remain on a down spiral after about 36 hrs, now about 96 hrs out it's on the upswing again. Some a lot more bullish than others.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032013_inten.png

[toxictwister00]

Chantal certainly has strengthened a lot since last night. It was a 50 mph TS during the 11pm update, now as of 2pm (new advisory coming out soon) it's up to 65 mph. I wouldn't be surprised to see Chantal make a very brief run at a 75 mph Cat 1 hurricane before it hits the shredder. We'll see if that happens over next 24 hours.

[phw115wvwx]

The latest models seem to be shifting westward a little with Chantal, which NHC hinted at the end of their forecast discussion.  That forward speed is way too fast for normal tropical cyclones, which will matter for tracking purposes.  Chantal might go for it to reach hurricane intensity during the next 48 hours, but there's way too much against it to allow a decent tropical storm near Florida by the end of this week, especially if Chantal ends up going over Cuba in addition to Hispaniola.

[TWCToday]

This thing is not a 60mph tropical storm. Hurricane Hunters couldn't even find a center tonight much less winds that high. This storm is going to have to fight to keep from being torn apart as it passes over the islands. Even NHC said in their discussion it was a "generous" forecast. Model forecasts could be affected too without an exact fix on the center. Not saying it won't survive or restrengthen but its pretty pathetic looking right now.

[toxictwister00]

This thing is not a 60mph tropical storm. Hurricane Hunters couldn't even find a center tonight much less winds that high. This storm is going to have to fight to keep from being torn apart as it passes over the islands. Even NHC said in their discussion it was a "generous" forecast. Model forecasts could be affected too without an exact fix on the center. Not saying it won't survive or restrengthen but its pretty pathetic looking right now.

I believe it already is, the past few days there seemed to be some decent agreement on where Chantal was going even in the long range, now this morning, model guidance are diverging greatly in the long range. About half want to take Chantal to the GOM (in the direction of Texas) and another half want to take Chantal up to the FL/GA/SC coast.

If there's anything left of Chantal once it's past Cuba, the track from the NHC is interesting. Right now they're going for a GA coast landfall. I might be wrong, but I think Hurricane David (1979) was the last tropical system to make landfall on the GA coast when it hit Savannah.

A landfall on the GA coast is very rare.

[toxictwister00]

Here are my current thoughts.

I stopped at Friday Morning because that's where my uncertainty kicks in. Chantal (or whatever is left of it) could head into the G.O.M or it could still head towards the SE coast. I'm leaning towards the Gulf because it looks like a Gulf landfall is increasing.

[toxictwister00]

Last nail jammed into the coffin. What a short lived and pathetic storm. It never could catch a break.

...CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE... ...COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...

5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 10
Location: 16.5°N 73.7°W
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

FINAL ADVISORY

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical cyclones hate wind shear, but Chantal's ridiculously fast forward speed (never went below 20 mph) actually created wind shear on itself.  If this storm was only moving 10-15 mph, we would have a very different story.  Just because Chantal has dissipated into an open tropical wave doesn't take away the fact that a lot of tropical moisture will spread over Hispaniola, Cuba, and eventually the southeastern United States.  Flooding is going to be a serious issue as none of these areas need this excessive rainfall.