TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Trevor on May 25, 2012, 10:46:13 PM
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We now have Subtropical Storm Beryl in the Atlantic Basin.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0212W5_NL_sm2+gif/024328W5_NL_sm.gif)
Tropical Storm Warning from Titusville, FL to Beaufort, SC.
Landfall expected near St. Augustine, FL as a Tropical Storm.
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I think this year officially throws the arbitrary season dates of June 1 - November 30 out the window. :P We have yet another extratropical cyclone that transitioned over into subtropical and probably will complete tropical transition in a day or two. The environment isn't great for Beryl to intensify much, but rain is going to be a big issue when landfall occurs.
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Out of curiosity, what is the most number of storms that have formed before the "official" start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season? We're already at two this year. :P
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Out of curiosity, what is the most number of storms that have formed before the "official" start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season? We're already at two this year. :P
Now that we have Beryl, 2012 just achieved a tie with 1887 for the most storms before June 1. The 1887 "season" also had two December storms to bring a total of four storms outside the season, which is the largest total on record.
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The tropical storm warning covers my area. It looks like I'll be walking to and from work in the middle of quite a rainstorm. This reminds me of the not-quite-a-tropical-system that I had to trudge through in October, and that was NOT fun!! :cry:
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Oy. Here we go again. I'm already kinda tired of these tropical systems! It's only one week since I just dealt with the last one, and I dealt with that one for a WEEK. None the less, GA needs quite a bit of rain ditto for Florida.
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IMO, even though it's "Sub-tropical", it's one of the most non-tropical looking storms I've ever seen. Looks like a nor'easter actually. I check some of the model runs, the GFS showed that Beryl had a cold core of circulation. :thinking: Anyway, you guys should stay safe, the winds shouldn't be the problem, more so the rain and flooding.
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IMO, even though it's "Sub-tropical", it's one of the most non-tropical looking storms I've ever seen. Looks like a nor'easter actually. I check some of the model runs, the GFS showed that Beryl had a cold core of circulation. :thinking: Anyway, you guys should stay safe, the winds shouldn't be the problem, more so the rain and flooding.
A subtropical storm means that it has some characteristics of a tropical storm, but it's more a hybrid between a tropical cyclone and an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone. You'll still see a cold core in its circulation until it's able to develop a warm core to complete tropical transition.
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IMO, even though it's "Sub-tropical", it's one of the most non-tropical looking storms I've ever seen. Looks like a nor'easter actually. I check some of the model runs, the GFS showed that Beryl had a cold core of circulation. :thinking: Anyway, you guys should stay safe, the winds shouldn't be the problem, more so the rain and flooding.
A subtropical storm means that it has some characteristics of a tropical storm, but it's more a hybrid between a tropical cyclone and an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone. You'll still see a cold core in its circulation until it's able to develop a warm core to complete tropical transition.
I knew what a sub-tropical storm was. :thumbsup: I was just saying that it didn't look like one. It may take a while before it develops into a true tropical cyclone. It will most likely move away from it's main moisture source and intake which appears to be the cold front it has and then develop directly using the Gulf Stream; from there it probably will transition into a warm core.
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Looks like Beryl has gotten it's act together since last night. Probably too late to make much of a difference strength wise.
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Looks like we can get a piece of this too.
(http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2012/beryl_precip_hwrf.png)
Image Credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL
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Beryl has completed her transition to a tropical storm, winds are up to 65mph also. (She's getting stronger than I anticipated.)
EDIT: I don't think a brief brush at 75mph Cat 1 hurricane intensity is out of the question now.
...BERYL STRONGER...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 79.9°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
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I'm calling it a 25% chance at becoming a hurricane. As Tavores said, definitely not out of the question.
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Beryl's center is now over a cold water shelf, and there is still a good bit of shear working against it. I'm surprised it's gotten winds above 45 knots at this point. Although current trends do suggest a strengthening to a hurricane, the odds are probably very low - I'll be daring and go lower than Trevor with 5-10% chance. The fact that NHC has no hurricane watches up at this point reinforces this.
Regardless, Florida and Georgia should continue to expect gusty winds and upwards of 6 inches of rain throughout the next 24-48 hours. Yeah. Happy Memorial Day to you guys down there! :wave: :pinch:
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Corrected the title. When I saw 65 MPH, it really shocked me.
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Hmmm...I was wondering when (if) the full transition to a tropical storm was ever going to be made. :P 65 MPH...wow, that is quite a bit stronger than predicted. I only remember seeing 50 MPH as the forecasted top speed yesterday. :thinking:
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Latest Advisory winds remain the same at 65mph, but pressure dropped to 996mb. It should be bearing down on Jacksonville between 8-10pm tonight if it stays on it's current pace.
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If I read this correctly, the Hurricane Hunters have found a wind of 73 KTS, or about 84 MPH in the Northwest portion of the hurricane. We may have a hurricane in the next advisory.
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URNT12 KNHC 272151
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/21:16:00Z
B. 30 deg 03 min N
080 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 62 kt
E. 295 deg 24 nm
F. 016 deg 73 kt
G. 294 deg 27 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 12 C / 1526 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 21:07:30Z
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If I read this correctly, the Hurricane Hunters have found a wind of 73 KTS, or about 84 MPH in the Northwest portion of the hurricane. We may have a hurricane in the next advisory.
000
URNT12 KNHC 272151
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012
A. 27/21:16:00Z
B. 30 deg 03 min N
080 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 62 kt
E. 295 deg 24 nm
F. 016 deg 73 kt
G. 294 deg 27 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 12 C / 1526 m
J. 19 C / 1527 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 21:07:30Z
That is a maximum wind speed, so I'm guessing that's a gust. If I had to guess, I'd say the next advisory will stick with 65-70 mph.
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I feel like the NHC should issue a Hurricane Watch just incase though...The pressure had been dropping....
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Beryl has completed her transition to a tropical storm, winds are up to 65mph also. (She's getting stronger than I anticipated.)
EDIT: I don't think a brief brush at 75mph Cat 1 hurricane intensity is out of the question now.
...BERYL STRONGER...NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
2:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 79.9°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Those winds were found on the left side of the storm in a thunderstorm squall that looks to have weakened a little on radar. The NE side of the storm is less impressive. I don't see any chance of hurricane force winds personally
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Winds up to 70mph, pressure continues to drop, down to 992mb...This girl isn't giving up without a good fight.
...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY ON THE COAST...
8:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
Location: 30.1°N 80.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
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3.5 ft. storm surge in Dungeness, FL.
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I think 70 mph is going to be the peak for this storm as it's about to make landfall. I included a picture of the drought map to let you all see how much this area really needs the rain, but I fear it may come too much all at once.
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It made landfall shortly after 12am EDT May 28 (Memorial Day). It's right over the Extreme Drought area, so it's a blessing. The bad part is that the rain will need to be just slow enough to activate absorption and not run off. I am not sure about Florida soil (I remember it being rust colored - hey, I am from Ohio :yes:!), but I would hope that this rain would help.
I noticed that everybody has been mispronoucing the name. I remember the last time this storm name came up. It is supposed to be pronounced "BERLE" as in Milton's last name!
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Beryl may likely regain tropical storm status as it parallels the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today. Once it's well offshore, it will merge with the cold front that just went through my area and become extratropical.