Tropical Storm Arlene

[WeatherWitness]

Tropical Storm Arlene is the first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As of 8 PM EDT, winds are sustained at 40 mph, the pressure is 1003 mb, and the storm is moving WNW at 7 mph. It looks like this storm could bring some rain to drought-stricken south Texas, although the center of the storm is expected to stay south in Mexico.

[phw115wvwx]

If you're all wondering what happened, aircraft reconnaissance found a closed low-level circulation and estimated surface wind speeds of 35 to 40 mph earlier this afternoon.  However, NHC thought the thunderstorm activity was too weak on satellite to classify this system.  That activity has increased over the past few hours, so NHC went straight to a tropical storm with the wind speeds from the aircraft data.

Arlene will likely be a strong tropical storm when it hits Mexico.  Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic about this storm giving much-needed rain to Texas based on the track I see with the storm staying well to the south.

[Donovan]

If you're all wondering what happened, aircraft reconnaissance found a closed low-level circulation and estimated surface wind speeds of 35 to 40 mph earlier this afternoon.  However, NHC thought the thunderstorm activity was too weak on satellite to classify this system.  That activity has increased over the past few hours, so NHC went straight to a tropical storm with the wind speeds from the aircraft data.

Arlene will likely be a strong tropical storm when it hits Mexico.  Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic about this storm giving much-needed rain to Texas based on the track I see with the storm staying well to the south.

POPs in SE Texas around Brownsville area are only max 50% in the next 3-5 Days. Too bad they wont get anything "much" out of this.

[WeatherWitness]

If you're all wondering what happened, aircraft reconnaissance found a closed low-level circulation and estimated surface wind speeds of 35 to 40 mph earlier this afternoon.  However, NHC thought the thunderstorm activity was too weak on satellite to classify this system.  That activity has increased over the past few hours, so NHC went straight to a tropical storm with the wind speeds from the aircraft data.

Arlene will likely be a strong tropical storm when it hits Mexico.  Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic about this storm giving much-needed rain to Texas based on the track I see with the storm staying well to the south.

POPs in SE Texas around Brownsville area are only max 50% in the next 3-5 Days. Too bad they wont get anything "much" out of this.

That is too bad. TWC is being a little too optimistic, then. I got the information from them.

[Donovan]

If you're all wondering what happened, aircraft reconnaissance found a closed low-level circulation and estimated surface wind speeds of 35 to 40 mph earlier this afternoon.  However, NHC thought the thunderstorm activity was too weak on satellite to classify this system.  That activity has increased over the past few hours, so NHC went straight to a tropical storm with the wind speeds from the aircraft data.

Arlene will likely be a strong tropical storm when it hits Mexico.  Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic about this storm giving much-needed rain to Texas based on the track I see with the storm staying well to the south.

POPs in SE Texas around Brownsville area are only max 50% in the next 3-5 Days. Too bad they wont get anything "much" out of this.

That is too bad. TWC is being a little too optimistic, then. I got the information from them.

Well, that might just be their "wishful thinking" for these drought stricken areas.

[toxictwister00]

What a waste, good tropical rains that could help ease a drought is just gonna screw over the folks in TX who desperately needed that.  Now with the pattern about to shift into another heatwave, they can really kiss their chances goodbye for at least the next week. 

[phw115wvwx]

What a waste, good tropical rains that could help ease a drought is just gonna screw over the folks in TX who desperately needed that.  Now with the pattern about to shift into another heatwave, they can really kiss their chances goodbye for at least the next week. 

The building upper-level ridge over the country that will set up our heat wave for the 4th is also what will prevent Arlene to move northward into TX.  Only the southern tip has a chance of seeing rainfall as Arlene will just head westward or even west-southwestward through Mexico and dissipate south of the ridge.