Tropical Storm Andrea

[toxictwister00]

I'm gonna pull the trigger early, but the writing looks to be on the wall...

Code: [Select]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052126
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M,

[TWCCraig]

Yeah I posted it earlier in the general thread. Though high shear, I wonder how much more this can intensify, and if it does, how would that effect its outcome here.

[toxictwister00]

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6:00 PM EDT Wed Jun 5
Location: 25.3°N 86.5°W
Moving: N at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
It's hard to see on this map, but Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings are in effect from FL to the Carolinas.

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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


[Lightning]

Why is this thing so sluggish?

[Mr. Rainman]

Not much to move it. Once the upper-level trough starts to close it, it'll shoot off to the northeast.

[phw115wvwx]

Tavores, here's a better version of the NHC track map.  You had the 5-day cone turned on earlier, and I've turned it off to only show the 3-day cone here to illustrate the warnings better.  Andrea is just going to be a big flood threat with some severe weather possible based on what I see.  It's not going to have much warm water or light wind shear to allow the winds to increase, so NHC only has 45 mph winds at most in this forecast.  Hope everyone in the Southeast takes appropriate actions.

[toxictwister00]

Sidenote: Score 1 to the GFS for sniffing this puppy out 2 weeks in advance.

[TWCCraig]

Sidenote: Score 1 to the GFS for sniffing this puppy out 2 weeks in advance.

I'm tellin' ya. You'll be surprised how often the GFS can pick up on tropical disturbances. Not all the time it is right, but most of the time it is. 

[toxictwister00]

I'm tellin' ya. You'll be surprised how often the GFS can pick up on tropical disturbances. Not all the time it is right, but most of the time it is. 

Agreed. I notice that quite a bit.

Yeah I posted it earlier in the general thread. Though high shear, I wonder how much more this can intensify, and if it does, how would that effect its outcome here.

Apparently a lot Craig, I woke this morning to a 60mph TS with a 997mb pressure.


...ANDREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING...

7:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 27.7°N 85.1°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[Zach]

There were 5 different tornado warnings sparked off within an hour between 2:30am and 4:00am this morning by Andrea for Hillsborough and Manatee Counties. And here's how she looks right now..

The larger box is Tornado Watch #242, in effect until 11:00am this morning

[toxictwister00]

What a wild time to be in FL right about now. All FL folks here and in general I hope are staying safe and out of the water although that should come with common sense not to be out there anyway.

I'm still impressed at how rapidly Andrea got itself together overnight into today. RECON did find max outbound flight level winds as high as 71 kts (80 mph rounded off).

[TWCCraig]

Whoa hello

[toxictwister00]

Winds up to 65mph as of 5pm Advisory.

...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[toxictwister00]

Wow, Andrea made landfall not far from where I said it would a couple of days ago. (Near Cross City, FL)

[phw115wvwx]

Andrea was just declared post-tropical at the 5 PM EDT advisory as it has caught the baroclinic zone of an upper level trough to become extratropical.  However, thanks to the new rules that came from Sandy last year, NHC is going to continue issuing advisories on Andrea until it no longer poses a threat to the East Coast.  The winds are only at 45 mph, but those winds can only be found offshore or along the coast.  Thus, severe weather and flooding are the primary threats to watch.