Tropical or subtropical trouble in the Atlantic

[TWCToday]

Could be seeing something develop out here in the Atlantic.

[Localonthe8s]

Nice! Can't wait to see what this will unfold

[Eric]

To me, it looks possible, though not probable.  Yes, it is in the Gulf Stream, but it's still a rather out of the ordinary place for a storm to form in May.  Stranger things have happened, but my guess would be, at the absolute maximum, a weak tropical depression.  And that's the absolute maximum.

[toxictwister00]

It's interesting, if it ends up coming more west, I might get showers out of it. We could really use the rain, it hasn't been that wet this Spring, in fact I can already tell La Nina is going to make a comeback unfortunately. 

[TWCToday]

It's interesting, if it ends up coming more west, I might get showers out of it. We could really use the rain, it hasn't been that wet this Spring, in fact I can already tell La Nina is going to make a comeback unfortunately. 

Yea it looks like the models are trending towards La Nino.

[TWCToday]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005211219
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010052112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010052012, , BEST, 0, 270N, 718W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052018, , BEST, 0, 272N, 717W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052100, , BEST, 0, 274N, 717W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052106, , BEST, 0, 276N, 720W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052112, , BEST, 0, 275N, 723W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1221 UTC FRI MAY 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100521 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100521 1200 100522 0000 100522 1200 100523 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.5N 72.3W 27.5N 73.1W 27.4N 74.4W 27.1N 75.7W
BAMD 27.5N 72.3W 27.4N 69.8W 28.0N 68.7W 29.3N 68.7W
BAMM 27.5N 72.3W 27.3N 72.4W 27.2N 73.0W 27.2N 73.6W
LBAR 27.5N 72.3W 27.9N 71.3W 28.2N 70.7W 28.7N 70.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 24KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100523 1200 100524 1200 100525 1200 100526 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.6N 77.3W 25.4N 80.6W 24.6N 83.6W 24.5N 85.7W
BAMD 30.9N 69.1W 34.6N 70.0W 36.6N 74.4W 36.3N 79.7W
BAMM 26.8N 74.3W 25.4N 75.4W 25.5N 71.4W 31.0N 66.6W
LBAR 29.2N 69.7W 30.9N 68.7W 35.2N 66.9W 38.7N 65.6W
SHIP 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.5N LONCUR = 72.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 71.7W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 71.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[TWCToday]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N69W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1008 MB
LOW NEAR 25N70W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CURRENT LOW AND WILL BE ADDED AT 23/1800 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N AND E OF THE LOW WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM 22N58W TO 29N69W AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N67W
TO 23N65W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
64W-70W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AND BE N OF THE
REGION BY LATE TUE NIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT E THROUGH THU.

[TWCToday]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL
TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THE NEXT
STATEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[WeatherWitness]

I wonder if Hurricane Season is going to start a bit early this year. I think it was two years ago that TS Arthur had formed on only the second day of the season.

Is this year also supposed to be more active? I thought I remember reading/hearing some place that the 2010 Hurricane Season could be like that of 2005, the unforgettable one with Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc.

[TWCToday]

Is this year also supposed to be more active? I thought I remember reading/hearing some place that the 2010 Hurricane Season could be like that of 2005, the unforgettable one with Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc.

Actually Subtropical storm Andrea formed sometimes around this time a while back. Yep this is supposed to be a fairly active season

[Localonthe8s]

I hope so. For some reason, a crappy summer always occurs during a nonactive Hurricane season.

[TWCToday]

I hope so. For some reason, a crappy summer always occurs during a nonactive Hurricane season.

Certainly makes things more interesting