Hurricane Katia

[WeatherWitness]

Preliminary track, it's further west than I was thinking yesterday.

This track looks at lot like Hurricane Earl's from last year. IIRC, Earl didn't affect the East Coast too greatly, so hopefully Katia will miss the U.S. as the Northeast certainly does not need any more rain at the moment.

[toxictwister00]

Preliminary track, it's further west than I was thinking yesterday.

This track looks at lot like Hurricane Earl's from last year. IIRC, Earl didn't affect the East Coast too greatly, so hopefully Katia will miss the U.S. as the Northeast certainly does not need any more rain at the moment.

It is mostly based off of that track.

[phw115wvwx]

Katia has regained hurricane status with 75 mph sustained winds.  Unfortunately, the forecast track keeps getting shifted westward.  Anyone in the Northeast should be monitoring the progress of Katia as it's expected to intensify over the next three days once it can fight off the wind shear.

[Pop Light Brown]

For some reason, I have a bad feeling about this one.

[WeatherWitness]

Wow, thep projected paths for Katia still aren't showing the curve northward, and the forecast has it getting closer and closer to the U.S. with a possible landfall that Savannah is overdue for! Maybe Katia will begin making an unexpected turn to the north sooner than what is being forecasted or make a last minute turn, but we definetely will now need to watch this one closely.

[Star4000 Fan]

The 240-hour map has Lee in the eastern Gulf and Katia east of Florida.
Could Katia have an impact on where Lee goes if Lee doesn't get the lead out?  Usually the bigger storm wins out.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Updated models

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_model.gif

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

http://flhurricane.com/images/2011/clark12latest.png

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_ensmodel.gif

[Mr. Rainman]

WOW.  Talk about a Rapid Intensification episode. Katia just went from a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane to a Category 2 with winds of 100 mph. NHC is forecasting a major hurricane by tomorrow.

[toxictwister00]

WOW.  Talk about a Rapid Intensification episode. Katia just went from a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane to a Category 2 with winds of 100 mph. NHC is forecasting a major hurricane by tomorrow.

A buoy reported a wind gust of 90mph on the NE side not long after the 8am advisory. If Katia had of been close enough for them to fly into and investigate, she probably would have been upgraded to a Cat. 2 during the 8am advisory instead.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Water Temps for Katia (Attached)

[toxictwister00]

Eye has popped out, looks rather large.

[gt1racerlHDl]

if you compare her to Earl, she is really alike compared to him.

[Mr. Rainman]

I'm starting to get a tiny bit iffy on landfall potential with Katia. Looking at the 12Z model guidance run, it's looking like most models turn her north and eventually northeast well offshore of the United States.

[Mr. Rainman]

Double post, my apologies.

Winds have increased again to 105 mph. Pressure down to 965 mb.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Day 5 cone pointing directly at Southern New England