Hurricane Leslie

[toxictwister00]

Might skirt close to Bermuda....

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 30
Location: 14.1°N 43.4°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[Trevor]

Everyone give a warm welcome to the 12th named storm of the Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Leslie! Expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Winds: 40 MPH
Pressure: 1005mb

[Localonthe8s]

TWC: Leslie not a threat to land - yet.

[phw115wvwx]

Leslie doesn't appear to pose any threat to the United States.  It will also turn northward and out to sea, but it does slow down a little as it tries to go north according to NHC's track.  It might pose a small threat to the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda, but I do not foresee anything else other than it could become a hurricane in a few days.

[toxictwister00]

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.

Also FWIW (Not much 240 hrs out) 12z ECMWF wants to tease the East Coast with Leslie.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Also FWIW (Not much 240 hrs out) 12z ECMWF wants to tease the East Coast with Leslie.

What Hurricane Category would that be in the graphic?

[toxictwister00]

Also FWIW (Not much 240 hrs out) 12z ECMWF wants to tease the East Coast with Leslie.

What Hurricane Category would that be in the graphic?

For verbatim, I'm guessing it's probably a low end Category One. The barometric pressure was 991mb in that image. However I'm just using that 991mb pressure as a guesstimate to the possible wind speed since there's no clear or precise way to know for sure.

[toxictwister00]

12z GFS wants to tease you guys too...actually it switched places with the ECMWF, the GFS on the 12z run is much closer to the Northeast region than the 12z ECMWF was today. It's closest point I would say is when it's about approx. 150 miles to the east of NYC/LI at hr 276. Leslie is also moving about 36 hours slower this run compared to the 00z run last night. It was near NYC at 240 hrs out, but now it's not near there until 276 hours out on the 12z run today. In addition, Bermuda is slammed HARD on the 12z run, it's worse since it makes me think of Isaac it's moving so slow once it gets there. That's probably because the Ridge in the Atlantic is much weaker as well as the trough in the CONUS this run compared to the 00z run.

For verbatim from both runs today, the Northeast would see rough surf/rip currents at least.

[TWCCraig]

06z GFS had it even closer and making landfall in the New England with a pressure of about 964mb. One major concern is that it's going to go so slow while over the Atlantic, it's going to intensify greatly. This will be a fun storm to track.

[toxictwister00]

06z GFS had it even closer and making landfall in the New England with a pressure of about 964mb. One major concern is that it's going to go so slow while over the Atlantic, it's going to intensify greatly. This will be a fun storm to track.

NHC has changed their cone significantly to reflect this from when I saw it this morning.
[/img]

Looks like they're forecasting a 85 mph (75 knots) Cat 1 hurricane right now though...

[TWCToday]

Its really getting ripped apart now from shear. Its going to have a decent fight over the next couple days

[phw115wvwx]

The center of Leslie was being exposed due to the shear a couple days ago.  It has held together and will try to become a hurricane over the next couple days.  Winds are at 65 mph, and it's expected to move slowly northward toward Bermuda and bring some good surf for the East Coast.  None of the models show a landfall over the United States as a trough will keep it offshore.

[TWCToday]

The center of Leslie was being exposed due to the shear a couple days ago.  It has held together and will try to become a hurricane over the next couple days.  Winds are at 65 mph, and it's expected to move slowly northward toward Bermuda and bring some good surf for the East Coast.  None of the models show a landfall over the United States as a trough will keep it offshore.

While not a landfall, the Euro had a decent sized storm with impressive winds onshore. Doubtful but still intriguing.

[gt1racerlHDl]

While not a landfall, the Euro had a decent sized storm with impressive winds onshore. Doubtful but still intriguing.

Does that mean the most Southern New England could get from Leslie is Scattered Showers at her closest pass?

[TWCCraig]

While not a landfall, the Euro had a decent sized storm with impressive winds onshore. Doubtful but still intriguing.

Does that mean the most Southern New England could get from Leslie is Scattered Showers at her closest pass?

I say it's too early to tell but if it does what the Euro is showing us, then yes, scattered squalls and windy conditions can be possible. But this can all change and we can't all rely on one model. Especially the Euro since I think it's a little too overrated and it exaggerates on some storm's intensities.