Tropical Storm Nicole

[TWCToday]

Warnings up

[TWCmatthew]

Fcst wind speeds expected to reach 45 mph or so. There will soon be too much impact with land to sustain a hurricane. Therefore, rainfall will be the main threat with this soon-to-be Nicole system.

[WeatherWitness]

Those of you begging for rain, this system might bring you something. However, as of now, future Nicole (if it even gets the name) is going to remain a very weak tropical storm. The only threat is going to be rain from this system.

[phw115wvwx]

I'm really puzzled with what happened here:  Tropical Depression #16 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole earlier today at 11 AM EDT with winds of 40 mph.  Nicole was over Cuba during the upgrade as the center had relocated over land.  After it emerged into open waters north of Cuba, the center of circulation became elongated and untrackable as it approached the frontal zone off the East Coast.  NHC has issued the last advisory for Nicole at 5 PM EDT.  It really makes me wonder if this system should have ever been declared anything in the first place.

[Eric]

I'm really puzzled with what happened here:  Tropical Depression #16 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole earlier today at 11 AM EDT with winds of 40 mph.  Nicole was over Cuba during the upgrade as the center had relocated over land.  After it emerged into open waters north of Cuba, the center of circulation became elongated and untrackable as it approached the frontal zone off the East Coast.  NHC has issued the last advisory for Nicole at 5 PM EDT.  It really makes me wonder if this system should have ever been declared anything in the first place.

Certainly.  Why would the National Hurricane Center ignore a storm based on the length it was active, which, by the way, is impossible to accurately predict ahead of time?

The storm did make landfall (as a tropical depression) in Cuba, and its effects were felt throughout Florida, the Bahamas, and elsewhere.  The fact that the storm didn't complete a month-long marathon trek across the Atlantic doesn't mean it should have been paid any less attention.

[TWCToday]

This NEVER should have been a TS. Technically I think the center was just leaving Cuba when it got upgraded. The NHC is being bullish with it. Listen to their own words:

"THE CENTER...WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM."

Yet the first advisory clearly contradicts this SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[phw115wvwx]

Certainly.  Why would the National Hurricane Center ignore a storm based on the length it was active, which, by the way, is impossible to accurately predict ahead of time?

The storm did make landfall (as a tropical depression) in Cuba, and its effects were felt throughout Florida, the Bahamas, and elsewhere.  The fact that the storm didn't complete a month-long marathon trek across the Atlantic doesn't mean it should have been paid any less attention.

I didn't mean to argue that this storm should have never been anything because its duration was so short.  I made that statement because I'm just unsure if it ever became a true tropical cyclone as it was so poorly organized.  By definition, tropical cyclones should have reasonably well-defined centers of circulation.  Martin pointed out some of the inconsistencies that I'm talking about here.  The fact that it suddenly dissipated just after being declared a tropical storm also has me suspicious.  Was there really that much wind shear to tear it apart in six hours, or was this storm ever a real tropical cyclone?  I'll be curious in seeing what this particular post-storm report will say once it's written after the season.

[TWCToday]

You are not the only met thinking suspicious thoughts Patrick. I honestly think the NHC did it to get through another named storm. Too much politics in weather!

[cc17926]

Yay! A place for me to upload related XL videos in regards to this storm!

Willow Grove Weatherstar XL - Many advisories for Nicole - 9/30/2010

[TWCToday]

Nicole actually looks better than it ever did when it was a "tropical storm". Some models still hinting at some extra-tropical intensification. We have a long few days ahead with this rain

[TWCToday]

 

[Mike M]

The NHC is unfair about a lot of things these days...

[TWCToday]

Gusts of up to 60 being reported from the remnants in my region

[jtmal0723]

KDIX won't load for me, so I'll use KDOX...

Lots of intense rain in my area the past 12 hours...

[cc17926]

Willow Grove Weatherstar XL - Many buckets of rain! - 10/1/2010 2:38am

Willow Grove Weatherstar XL - Nicole moving off the coast - 10/1/2010 4:38am

Enjoy!