Tropical Storm Florence

[toxictwister00]

Here We Go Again!


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 27.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[phw115wvwx]

Well, NHC sure doesn't have much faith in this system even making it to the Leeward Islands.  As Mac eluded earlier in another thread, it'll run into some really dry air in a few days.

[toxictwister00]

DEPRESSION UPGRADED - 8am ADVISORY

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 4
Location: 14.6°N 29.7°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical storm Florence is up to 50 mph winds as of 5 PM EDT.  I'm still weary about NHC's forecast being so pessimistic with it decaying as it approaches the Leeward Islands.  I have a hunch that Florence has a better future than expected, but it won't be an easy task due to all the dry air present in the Atlantic.

[toxictwister00]

I'm remaining pessimistic, Ernesto is enough of a headache all on it's own to track.

[Localonthe8s]

Isnt there another system (possible H storm) near the Yucatan that's being closely monitored too?

[phw115wvwx]

Isnt there another system (possible H storm) near the Yucatan that's being closely monitored too?

No, that wave has dissipated and moved inland.  We only have Ernesto and Florence.  Florence is up to 60 mph winds now.

[toxictwister00]

Both of these storms are very baffling to me in the way they're behaving. I don't see how in the world Florence is so strong. The convection appears to be dying off and Ernesto REFUSES to slow down which is part of the reason it's so pathetic again, the other being now that the LLC is exposed the dry air finally can attack it.

[Localonthe8s]

Will Florence threaten the us or is it too hard to tell?

[toxictwister00]

Will Florence threaten the us or is it too hard to tell?

Flo will commit suicide not harming any landmasses. It's starting to look like it's dying out now.

[Nathan - a.k.a. NWRGeek]

Flo will commit suicide not harming any landmasses. It's starting to look like it's dying out now.

How do you know the storm will dissipate? (Besides models.)

[Mr. Rainman]

The massive amount of dry air ahead of it and forecast increase in shear over the next few days is a pretty good indicator. It's already lost some of its organization on satellite this morning.

[toxictwister00]

Flo will commit suicide not harming any landmasses. It's starting to look like it's dying out now.

How do you know the storm will dissipate? (Besides models.)

1. Dry Air
2. Increasing Wind Shear to it's west
3. Marginally Warm Waters (27c compared to the 30c + waters Ernesto is around)

If you got the first two working against a tropical system, it's about a given it's on it's last legs very soon. Not only is the wind shear disrupting thunderstorm development around the center, it's allowing dry air to easily filter in prohibiting development also.

[TWCToday]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sh8mNjeuyV4

[toxictwister00]

^LOL can we get the same treatment for Ernie too?