Hurricane Arthur

[WeatherWitness]

The Atlantic is alive!  Our first tropical depression has formed.  Based on the projected path, the system could become a Tropical Storm very soon and would be named Arthur.  The system may also skim the East Coast, so we'll have to watch out for this over the next few days.

[Eric]

My area (Daytona Beach) is already under a tropical storm watch.  TWC's cell phone alert got to me about 10 minutes (!) before NOAA Weather Radio broadcast the alert.

[TWCToday]

Watching this one closely

[WeatherWitness]

11 AM EDT update shows we have TS Arthur.  Max sustained wind 40 mph.  Now could become a hurricane by 8 AM Friday based on latest forecast.  East coast needs to watch this closely.

[toxictwister00]

A lot of people are comparing Arthur to Alex (2004). Still too soon to say for sure how strong Arthur will really get, but it'll be interesting to see if Arthur ends up being a stronger hurricane than predicted.

[toxictwister00]

Forecast Wind Speeds - It's expected to be a Cat 1 hurricane as it approaches the Outer Banks of NC.

000
WTNT21 KNHC 011455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  79.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  79.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N  79.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.8N  79.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.2N  78.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.4N  75.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N  67.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 45.5N  59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N  79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SamRichardson92]

Here are LIVEb][/b] imagery of the storm.

[toxictwister00]

Arthur is quite an amazing storm to watch develop right now. Right now, it looks like the convection is aggressively fighting back some minor dry air intrusion that affected Arthur last night and it's finally starting to wrap around all quadrants of where the eye is. I think the final stage would be for Arthur to establish a solid eyewall around the eye and who knows for sure what will or may happen after that...

I put the chance of Arthur going through a RI (rapid intensification) period over the next 12-18 hours of about 30%.

[toxictwister00]

I don't think there's anyone here who lives along the Outer Banks of NC (or slightly inland from there), but I'll ask anyway. Does anyone know whether or not they plan to do voluntary or mandatory evacuations out there? If not, I hope they are considering it (at least the voluntary evacuation) because Arthur will be passing near or through the area on the 4th of July. It wouldn't be safe to have tourists or residents out at the beaches as this likely to become hurricane is blowing through, even if it is only a Cat 1 (possibly borderline 2 at the worst)

[toxictwister00]

Arthur is beginning to look a lot more symmetrical now on the visible satellite. Even the eye (which appears to be smaller) is appearing again as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-vis-short.html

[WeatherWitness]

Surprisingly, Arthur is still a tropical storm per the 11 PM EDT update, with max sustained winds of 70 mph.  Arthur is still expected to develop into a hurricane later tonight or early tomorrow, however,

[gt1racerlHDl]

Arthur on WindStream

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.73,30.83,2048

[WeatherWitness]

While this should probably come as no surprise, Arthur is now a hurricane with max wind speeds of 80 mph. The title of this topic has been updated to reflect that.

Our first hurricane of the Atlantic season!

[toxictwister00]

Gaining momentum, movement is NNE at 14 mph, winds have increased to 90 mph (just shy of Cat. 2 intensity) and pressure down to 981 mb per 11am advisory.

NHC is now projecting Hurricane Arthur to become a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks region.

[toxictwister00]

Also if you want to look at a radar perspective of Hurricane Arthur's eye as it approaches NC, here's a great link

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LTX-N0Q-1-96

^the radar automatically updates btw.