Hurricane Ernesto

[toxictwister00]

Ernesto is forecasted to only affect the Yucatan Peninsula and Southern Mexico. There will be no threat to the US. Ernesto is NOT forecasted to become a hurricane, which I've been thinking since yesterday. I guess the Ernesto Curse continues....

Ironically, presentation has improved and convection seems to be firing again around the center. Unfortunately, that's too little, too late.

EDIT: Playing more mind games with us now I see, Hurricane Hunters are finding a barometric pressure down around 994mb and flight level winds as high as near 77kts. (NW Quadrant) Might have a hurriane today afterall and I'll probably eat crow for doubting it.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Radar Signature: Good

11am Advisory
Winds - 65mph
Pressure - 994mb
Direction - WNW at 9mph

[phw115wvwx]

A hurricane warning is up from Mexico, and a hurricane watch is up for Belize.  The new forecast track for Ernesto shows no impact to the United States.

[toxictwister00]

It could be too premature to say this, but it looks like an eye might be trying to appear soon.

[Mr. Rainman]

It just goes to show how difficult it can be to forecast intensity with these things. Landfall intensity went from a strong tropical storm to a strong Category 1. That's impressive.

[toxictwister00]

This is my first forecast.

[Mike M]

Hurricane Warnings are out from the Yucatan Peninsula southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for the Honduras border. I know someone who is currently in Honduras so hopefully they're doing alright.

[Mr. Rainman]

Ernesto has not strengthened as expected by NHC. I'm sure they are pulling hairs out right now in Miami.

[toxictwister00]

It will probably do what it did last night and start flaring up overnight tonight. It seems like it may be slowly trying to do that now. Also the eye (once well established again) I think will be much larger than it was this morning.

EDIT: A ball of convection is starting to fire not far from the center as I had suspected.

[toxictwister00]

Ernesto has indeed been flaring up this morning. Pressure is down to 988mb, however wind speeds are still 65mph as of the 8am advisory. I suspect if trends continue to be positive, Ernesto will be a hurricane finally come the 11am advisory. We'll see, this thing has been a major roller coaster of a headache the past few days.

[Mr. Rainman]

No dice on a hurricane.

[toxictwister00]

Eh, I'm having a hard time believing this thing is not at least a min 75mph hurricane right now.

I'm also not sure why I even care anymore, but I think it will still manage to get to 75mph before landfall. Man that forecast I posted yesterday was a major FAIL.

[toxictwister00]

Everyone say hello to Hurricane Ernesto ! About time sheesh louise... I think my goatee throughout puberty grew faster than the time it has taken this thing to reach hurricane status. 

2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.5°N 85.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

EDIT: Ernesto is certainly looking much better and has probably gotten stronger in the past couple of hours. I saw a radar from Belize at another forum and you can tell an eyewall is developing and tightening pretty well so far. My final forecast is Ernesto will be able to top at a strong Category One with winds of 90 mph before making landfall overnight tonight.

Look to the right under about 19N, 86W

[Mike M]

Ernesto has downgraded to a tropical storm. Restrengthening to a hurricane is not likely but the NHC has not ruled out the chance yet, as a hurricane watch is still in effect for a small area of Mexico where Ernesto is expected to take a direct hit.

2PM ET/1PM ct Intermediate Advisory:
Location: 18.8N/90.9W
Wind: 45 mph
Moving: W 13 mph
Pressure: 998 mb/29.43 inches

[gt1racerlHDl]

WS4000 Emu Chetumal, MX Local Forecast 8/8/12

[Mike M]

Ernesto had greatly deteriorated thanks to the mountains of Mexico, and as of 10AM CDT the storm's circulation has dissipated. However, redevelopment into a tropical storm is possible as the remnant low enters the Eastern Pacific over the next two days.