Hurricane Isaac

[Mr. Rainman]

The NHC track has shifted west again and the intensity forecast has been increased ever-so-slightly. Also of note is that the circulation of Isaac has remained entirely offshore of Cuba, so it has a better chance of remaining organized and strengthening quite a bit. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a rapid intensification episode, especially given the low shear and very warm waters over the Gulf.

Side note: Anyone else notice Isaac should make landfall at the same day as Katrina did?

[toxictwister00]

The NHC track has shifted west again and the intensity forecast has been increased ever-so-slightly. Also of note is that the circulation of Isaac has remained entirely offshore of Cuba, so it has a better chance of remaining organized and strengthening quite a bit. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a rapid intensification episode, especially given the low shear and very warm waters over the Gulf.

Side note: Anyone else notice Isaac should make landfall at the same day as Katrina did?

Yes, that's what makes it even more eerie. I could imagine anyone from New Orleans on over to Mobile are on pins and needles about this.

Looks like Isaac is sick and tired of playing games...RECON will be flying in giving updates around 1:30am, something tells me they may be able to find strong enough winds around the center to knock this back up to at least around where it was before Haiti at 70 mph.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120826&endtime=0052&nframes=150&band=2&res=4&aniwidth=1280&aniheight=1024

[Localonthe8s]

According to wcau, they expect it to strengthen to a Cat 2 during landfall near mobile

[toxictwister00]

I was going to make a final track/intensity map today, but honestly I'm more turned upside down now than I ever have been. I was certainly NOT expecting this sudden change in events for a westward trend. It looks like most models are in agreement that the trough in the Northern Plains will not dig far enough south to pick up Isaac and pull him north and east quickly. If the 12z runs today continue this, the chances will be greatly increasing for a MS/LA hit. Emergency management in those areas might want to consider evacuation options today. The unfortunate thing is they don't have much more time to do so, I'm not sure if this is true because I can't really recall, but I hear it would take up to 72 hours to evacuate NOLA again, that's about how much time they have left before Isaac is to strike so if they don't go into action on something now they could be in for some problems.

EDIT: Isaac continues to organize nicely this morning, it fact the SW portion of the COC had been lacking convection last night is now starting to flare up with convection. If it continues we might have a closed convective circulation later on today. Convection is also firing up on the S and W side of the storm overall which was also lacking.

[Zach]

My school district is taking a bit of extra precaution and has decided to cancel classes tomorrow.

[toxictwister00]

My school district is taking a bit of extra precaution and has decided to cancel classes tomorrow.

Better to be safe than sorry especially if the storm surge forecasts verify.

[Trevor]

Hurricane Watch extended. I've got all the details

here

.

[toxictwister00]

FYI, Evacuations are starting on the oil rigs out in the Gulf.

[TWCCraig]

12z GFS taking Isaac all the way to the Texas/ Louisiana border. 

[Trevor]

5 PM ET Advisory:
Winds: 60 MPH
Pressure: 992 mb (down from 995 mb)
Moving: WNW at 16 MPH
Location: 24.2 N; 82.3 W

Watches/Warnings:
Hurricane Warning in effect from Morgan City, LA to Destin, FL
Hurricane Watch from Destin, FL to Panama City Beach, FL
Tropical Storm Warning from Panama City Beach, FL to Palm Bay, FL (including Lake Okeechobee).

New Track:

[toxictwister00]

Bold prediction here: I believe we'll have Hurricane Isaac between the 11pm - 5am advisories given how things are trending tonight.

[Mr. Rainman]

Latest Dvorak estimate is 3.6 with estimated pressure at 985 mb. VMax is now 57 knots.

[TWCCraig]

As 11PM advisory, still a 65mph tropical storm, pressure up from 991 to 993mb.

[twcfan68]

The people here at LSU are very aware of the situation and are urging students and faculty to prepare. I don't plan on evacuating, so I'll take pics and video if anything exciting happens--safely, of course.

[toxictwister00]

HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 radar suggests an eye is forming in #Isaac.It is elliptical with major axis WNW-ESE and diameter 30 nm. In major bands to west.

HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 noticed a low level swirl of clouds as we passed through the center of #Isaac on this pass. Clouds and radar suggest eye forming.

HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 is tracking west 100 nm north of #Isaac center just outside the major rainband in and out of sun. Huge cumulonimbus to our left.

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA