Hurricane Isaac

[toxictwister00]

Now we got the HWRF, GFS, and the last ECMWF run (for verbatim) calling for a major hurricane.

Below is the HPC's 5 day rainfall forecast

 

[Localonthe8s]

Time to roll out the storm alert music

[Donovan]

Time to roll out the storm alert music

I agree! 

[TWCCraig]

They didn't do it last year for Irene but who knows about this time around. 

[toxictwister00]

They didn't do it last year for Irene but who knows about this time around. 

Irene wasn't a major hurricane. Although Isaac isn't forecasted to be one either, the possibility is there especially if any RI manages to take place across it's journey into the Gulf. They might use it again.

Ike in 2008 was an exception, but because of it's pressure you could argue it was a major hurricane anyway regardless of it not being classified as one.

[TWCCraig]

Irene was a major hurricane, of course not on landfall but it was. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it was once forecast to hit NC as a Cat 3, contradicting the fact that they use storm alert for major hurricanes only.

They may only use it when a hurricane is forecast to strike as a Cat 3 or higher. That said, they would have used it last year with Irene when it was a major hurricane.

[toxictwister00]

It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.

I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently)

EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see...

[TWCmatthew]

To be honest, I don't think we'll ever hear the Storm Alert music on the local forecast again. By tomorrow (before Isaac hits the Keys), they will probably preempt all regular programming (if they haven't already today), and reduce the local forecasts to the :28's and :58's.

Anyway, as of 2PM EDT, Isaac weakened ever so slightly due to it impacting Cuba. It's pressure is now up to 1000mb, but winds remain at 60 mph.

[toxictwister00]

To be honest, I don't think we'll ever hear the Storm Alert music on the local forecast again. By tomorrow (before Isaac hits the Keys), they will probably preempt all regular programming (if they haven't already today), and reduce the local forecasts to the :28's and :58's.

Anyway, as of 2PM EDT, Isaac weakened ever so slightly due to it impacting Cuba. It's pressure is now up to 1000mb, but winds remain at 60 mph.

Longform hasn't been on since about Thursday afternoon if I'm not mistaken. Many of the OCMs have mentioned they will be live nonstop for several days possibly as late as the end of next week.

A new 5pm advisory is out, pressure has dropped once again to 997mb. wind speed remains at 60 mph, however it has sped up once again to 21 mph still moving NW.

On the new forecast cone it appears in the short term they shifted the cone a little more north away from the North/Central half of Cuba's coast, in fact that area is no longer in the cone.

[TWCCraig]

It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.

I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently)

EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see...

Not to argue, but then how can TWC start playing storm alert music if it has made landfall yet as a Cat 3. According to you, the criteria for storm alert music to start wouldn't be determined until after the storm makes landfall. Any storm can rapidly intensify or de-intensify. So the only way to determine whether or not to play storm alert music lies in the forecast, and Irene was forecasted at once to make landfall as a Cat 3.

Anyway, the way the music has been going on TWC, I don't think storm alert music won't be used. It'll probably be like last year where they executed the L-Bar squeezeback LF's, boy were those detailed. 

Here's the latest image from GOES project:

[Localonthe8s]

Twc showed longform this morning..hurricane hunters and weather classroom until 4:30. Perhaps tonight that'll change though

[Zach]

Twc showed longform this morning..hurricane hunters and weather classroom until 4:30. Perhaps tonight that'll change though

Those are part of "Weather in the Classroom", so that is likely bound for exemption.

[toxictwister00]

 

It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.

I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently)

EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see...

Not to argue, but then how can TWC start playing storm alert music if it has made landfall yet as a Cat 3. According to you, the criteria for storm alert music to start wouldn't be determined until after the storm makes landfall. Any storm can rapidly intensify or de-intensify. So the only way to determine whether or not to play storm alert music lies in the forecast, and Irene was forecasted at once to make landfall as a Cat 3.

Anyway, the way the music has been going on TWC, I don't think storm alert music won't be used. It'll probably be like last year where they executed the L-Bar squeezeback LF's, boy were those detailed. 

Here's the latest image from GOES project:

That's ok, I wasn't trying to start an argument anyway, I was just stating what seemed to have been the general assessment of how SA was done in the past, to be honest I don't know if that's true or not. From what I can remember from the times when SA started in the past I believe  it was about 24 hours or less prior to landfall. That's probably when that criteria would be used to decide whether it was necessary or not. I'm sorry if it came across as if I knew for certain that's how it was implemented, it was really just an assumption going by what they did for Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc.

The contradictory you speak of lies with TWC also if that's really how the criteria was done for SA. It doesn't make any sense if it was decided several days prior or only 24 hours prior for the same reasons you mentioned because tropical cyclones can weaken or strengthen without much of a moment's notice. They could have used it for all hurricanes regardless of category for that matter.

EDIT: This validates my concerns...From the 5pm discussion.

A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

[toxictwister00]

I'm really not liking this, NOLA doesn't need this, neither does Mobile, Biloxi, or Slidell. 

[TWCmatthew]

As of this morning, Jim Cantore was in Tampa. If other 00z runs are in agreement with an even further west track, they better quickly fly him over to Biloxi if possible.