March 28, 2024, 12:30:38 PM

Author Topic: Hurricane Isaac  (Read 22407 times)

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2012, 06:14:28 AM »
The NHC track keeps getting worse and worse (for Isaac) another shift to the right/east over more of Cuba/Hispanola. FAIL for Isaac if it happens, it's never gonna get organized, let alone become a hurricane with a track like that which actually leads me to another issue I have with this track. With such uncertainty/disagreements between two of the most reliable global models (GFS/ECMWF) I don't get why they can't just leave the track unchanged as it is for a couple of advisories.

As far as the ECMWF is concerned, I think it helps it's case somewhat if Isaac continues to remain weak and disorganized the next few days.



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Offline Donovan

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2012, 06:43:22 AM »
The storm is at 45MPH sustained this morning. I agree with Tavores, this is way too much shifting they're doing, but each time the models are. Still, the track is generally towards Florida and Cuba. Whether or not it goes up the East or West coast of Florida, we need to think about what we'd (People living there, not all of us) do in the event that it does. Generally the median of the models are centered over Florida, although GFS has shifted this latest run. Even though this might sound idiotic, we should probably hope it does go over or towards  the East coast. If it goes into the Gulf there will be some serious trouble given the SST's out there. Some of you have already said that much though. I'm wondering if the trof that will be left over the eastern half of the US will pick the system up if it's still in place as in the upper-levels it likely will be.

Edit: If anything in here didn't make sense, blame it on the 'Case-of-the-Morning'.  :whistling:
« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 06:48:48 AM by Donovan »

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2012, 07:13:20 AM »
The storm is at 45MPH sustained this morning. I agree with Tavores, this is way too much shifting they're doing, but each time the models are. Still, the track is generally towards Florida and Cuba. Whether or not it goes up the East or West coast of Florida, we need to think about what we'd (People living there, not all of us) do in the event that it does. Generally the median of the models are centered over Florida, although GFS has shifted this latest run. Even though this might sound idiotic, we should probably hope it does go over or towards  the East coast. If it goes into the Gulf there will be some serious trouble given the SST's out there. Some of you have already said that much though. I'm wondering if the trof that will be left over the eastern half of the US will pick the system up if it's still in place as in the upper-levels it likely will be.

Edit: If anything in here didn't make sense, blame it on the 'Case-of-the-Morning'.  :whistling:

That's what makes the Euro scary, it still wants to blow Isaac up in the Central Gulf and send it west of New Orleans. It's the only model going that far west so it's technically an outliner, but that doesn't mean it's not right or doesn't have the right idea overall.

If anyone doesn't quite understand why the difference between the GFS/ECMWF is the way it is, part of it is because of the timing of how fast the Central Atlantic ridge breaks down allowing for a weakness/opening for Isaac to go through, but another reason is the GFS manages to keep Isaac's circulation in tact even after taking what seems like a vacation across all of Cuba, I don't buy into that. Meanwhile the ECMWF keeps Isaac disorganized and the circulation decoupled (not vertically stacked together from low/mid/upper levels) along with the fact that the Central Atlantic Ridge is still strong and further west towards the East Coast. It doesn't get it's act together until it's in the Gulf exploding. I don't really buy into this either, more so because it lacks any model support for this.

EDIT: Just looking at the 5am NHC track again, the center track of the cone wouldn't interfere with Haiti too much if at all and it would only brush over the Eastern edge of Cuba after that so I guess it's plausible for it to still be a Cat 1 hurricane once it's near the S. FL/FL Keys. Something else to take note of concerning the center track of the cone, Isaac will have to start moving WNW by later today, if not and it's still moving west the NHC will have to shift their track back to the south and west again. Also if it's south of Haiti by 75W, I think a SE/E Coast track can be taken off the table.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 08:03:22 AM by WxSTAR4000FTW »


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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2012, 03:23:53 PM »
Sorry for the double post, I hope my forecast doesn't turn out to be too bullish on a weak Cat. 3. I'm basing a large part of that on the fact of the GFS/ECMWF have been blowing it up once it gets into the Gulf past Cuba so I wouldn't be surprised to see R.I (Rapid Intensification) take place. :yes: The track is exactly the same as the one I posted yesterday. I feel no need to change it, I'm fairly confident in it.


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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2012, 04:24:51 PM »
I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2012, 04:27:46 PM »
Good track, Tavores. I would put the landfall point just a tad bit more east (50-75 miles or so) at this point instead of at the GA/AL border, but again, it depends on how much more the tracks shift west.

Looks like it is gonna be windy and wet for the Republicans in Tampa, regardless.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 04:30:33 PM by plane852 »
Tiddlywinks.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2012, 04:57:00 PM »
Apparently the center of circulation might be relocating further south and west. We'll see, it's still very disorganized which imo puts a little more merit into what the ECMWF has been interpreting.

Also anybody notice it's moving faster again, almost as fast as it was moving 48hrs ago.


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Offline Zach

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2012, 05:01:20 PM »
Looks like it is gonna be windy and wet for the Republicans in Tampa, regardless.
...but not for me? I'm in Tampa too. :cry: :P

Anyways, yeah, I am watching this one. The latest track on Monday has Isaac as a Hurricane just off the coast of Sarasota and Charlotte counties! :o
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2012, 05:04:35 PM »
Warnings/Watches as of 5:00 PM ET:

Hurricane Warning now in effect for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
Hurricane Watch in effect for all of Haiti's coastlines, all of Puerto Rico's coastlines, and the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical Storm Watch for the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the northern coastline of the Dominican Republic.

« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 05:10:35 PM by Trevor »

Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2012, 05:11:39 PM »
I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))

Double post, sorry. I figured that I'd upload a visualization of my forecasted track...

EDIT: Really starting to agree with the ECMWF with a LA/MS/AL border landfall. Possibly as a Cat 2 or 3.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 09:14:01 PM by Trevor »

Offline Zach

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2012, 05:29:01 PM »
I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))
Oh no, this is getting me excited! :thrilled:
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #26 on: August 22, 2012, 05:57:38 PM »
I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))
Oh no, this is getting me excited! :thrilled:

If Isaac makes landfall anywhere along the FL panhandle, I'll get to see my first possible hurricane heading toward me or close to me in years on the IntelliStar. I remember seeing Frances in '04 on the IntelliStar heading my way. THAT got me excited! :thrilled: Seeing those big, thick, heavy rainbands just barreling towards me from the south. We lost power for a little while and had some flooding, best of all no school which was great because I had a came down with a cold anyway and plus it gave me an extra day to do homework that I didn't do. :P (SIGHS) How I wish the light bulb had of gone off in my head to throw in a blank tape into the VCR to record some footage of Frances and Ivan. THAT makes me feel sad that I didn't do it. :cry3:

@Trevor - I like that track, it's very plausible. :yes:

EDIT: Starting tomorrow, NWS offices in AL/MS/GA/FL will launch weather balloons to hopefully better access the situation with the incoming trough and the position/strength of the Southern Plains Ridge so the track inconsistencies will hopefully start coming to a consensus soon. That data from the weather balloons should be ingested into the 00z model runs tomorrow night.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2012, 06:53:20 PM by WxSTAR4000FTW »


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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #27 on: August 22, 2012, 06:50:46 PM »
For those who don't know, Denis Phillips (Chief Meteorologist at Tampa's ABC affiliate) hosts a nightly weather web-chat. During the tropical season, the focus is mainly on tropics. He provides a lot of great insight and shows a lot of models. There's also a chat so you can ask him questions. I advise you to check it out if you want info on Isaac. It starts at 7 PM ET.

http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/weather/weather_blogs/Live-chat-with-the-ABC-Action-News-weather-team

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2012, 09:54:42 PM »
I'm expecting the NHC forecast cone to shift back to the left/west at 11pm tonight, Majority of the models (in the attachment below) have shifted west to the Eastern Gulf or right over FL.


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Offline Trevor

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Re: Hurricane Isaac
« Reply #29 on: August 22, 2012, 11:00:10 PM »
Well, the NHC looks to be hinting at leaning toward the EURO at the 11 PM advisory...