Hurricane Isaac

[Donovan]

We have TD 9 as of this morning. NHC expects the storm to become a Hurricane and to track towards the Caribbean and then towards SE Florida. GFS indicates the storm may track up the East Coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[toxictwister00]

My God, I haven't been more excited for something to be classified a TD or a TS so badly in my life as this ting. Slow as molasses this thing was, sitting at Code Red for like the past two days.

The tricky part is figuring out what parts of Hispanola (possibility is still there it could go over that area) and Cuba it crosses over. 00z GFS is interesting, it starts off as if it will make landfall in S. FL then it heads NNE then N around Savannah! One of the vulnerable hurricane cities, their last hurricane was David back in 1979. As Donovan mentioned after that, it rides parallel offshore up the East Coast.

[Donovan]

I agree with you on that, Tavores! This reminds me of Irene so much in terms of track and timing. It would be very interesting to have a tropical system move up this way, but we don't need a hurricane again on the East Coast. Euro Model takes the system south of Cuba and into the GOM. The 110mph/Cat 2 is what is a bit concerning about the forecast combined with the track. Stephanie is going down to Miami area to report on the 20th Ann. of Hurricane Andrew and she said this morning that if we have Issac, she is already in place to report on it. Lot of things to think about this morning, but we have some time to get the details in. We may have Issac by this afternoon or possible later this morning. TWC's morning teams seem to be focusing on the worst scenario's.

[toxictwister00]

I agree with you on that, Tavores! This reminds me of Irene so much in terms of track and timing. It would be very interesting to have a tropical system move up this way, but we don't need a hurricane again on the East Coast. Euro Model takes the system south of Cuba and into the GOM. The 110mph/Cat 2 is what is a bit concerning about the forecast combined with the track. Stephanie is going down to Miami area to report on the 20th Ann. of Hurricane Andrew and she said this morning that if we have Issac, she is already in place to report on it. Lot of things to think about this morning, but we have some time to get the details in. We may have Issac by this afternoon or possible later this morning. TWC's morning teams seem to be focusing on the worst scenario's.

Yeah, the European is scarier than the GFS as far as strength, a 962mb low around the FL Keys/S. FL, that could translate to a Major Hurricane. I hope TWC doesn't put the hype machine on full blast too much now BEFORE it's past Cuba. We don't know with true certainty what effects Cuba will have on TD 9 or if it will recover once it's past there. Some tropical cyclones in the past have and some haven't.

A couple of my biggest concerns is
-If this thing manages to be further west into the Gulf it's gonna tap into some boiling SSTs in the 32-33 Celsius range.
With conditions remaining favorable that can be a dangerous combination. (This is a worst case scenario though)
-The Republican National Convention is taking place in Tampa, FL the week potential "Issac" arrives. I have no doubts at this point that Tampa won't be affected in some shape or fashion whether it's a direct hit or a complete miss.

On a side note, TD 9 looks much better this morning than it did yesterday, convection has really fired around the center. I believe we have our Issac.

Another side note, I'm not sure many realized this, but if "Issac" becomes a major hurricane affecting FL/East Coast, it will be the first since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005!


TD 9 (As the sun rises)

[Localonthe8s]

Could be our first major hurricane and first possible US landfalling hurricane of the season?

[toxictwister00]

Could be our first major hurricane and first possible US landfalling hurricane of the season?

It's increasingly likely this will be a US threat, but whether it's a major hurricane remains to be seen. All that can be said right now is the possibility is there.

12z GFS shifted more west, riding along the West Coast of FL, going for a FL panhandle hit. That actually puts it more on par with the European from last night.

[Mr. Rainman]

Hmm...well, it's still fair game for the East Coast, but looking at the 11 AM advisory forecast track it looks like Isaac would track into the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico along western Florida. Again, we'll see what happens, but right now the forecast turn for Isaac will not be soon enough to scrape the Eastern Seaboard.

[toxictwister00]

Flooding could end up being the main story here if this scenario plays out. Check out the rainfall totals from the 12z GFS. Several inches from FL to VA on this run.

NOTE: This is between Days 6-10

[Localonthe8s]

I really hope the east coast goes unscathed. Irene was an utter nightmare for the northeast despite it only being a weak Cat 1/TS by landfall

[toxictwister00]

12z CMC is the furthest east (right) of the global models. However, it has been shifting to the left/west the past few runs. It takes TD 9 across Hispanola, then into the Bahamas and makes landfall not far NE from Charleston. This is Wednesday, August 29th, so it's also two days faster with a US landfall than the GFS/ECMWF are since it takes TD 9 further NW than they do.

[TWCToday]

If it cuts across the islands its gonna have a hard time surviving. A lot of the GFS ensembles take it somewhere on the east coast. Could be an interesting one!

[toxictwister00]

Although it's lacking convection on the NE side of the center/storm itself. I really like the overall symmetrical shape of it. It also looks like it will be fairly large in size, that could work in it's favor if it interacts with high elevations across Cuba/Hispanola. Large, broad storms seem to hold their own going across those areas than small, tiny core storms do.

EDIT: WOW at the 12z Euro! It continued to shift west/left so far west in fact TD 9 misses Cuba/Hispanola/Jamaica completely staying over open waters and heads it's way to the Central Gulf putting LA/MS/AL coastlines in it's path. Pressure plummets to 956mb just offshore.

[toxictwister00]

We have Isaac.

EDIT: I personally disagree with the NHC's forecast track/intensity below, I think it should have been shifted to the west slightly from the last forecasted track and I think they may be getting too conservative on intensity in the short/mid term.

[Trevor]

My take on things. (Banner made by Donovan).

[toxictwister00]

My take on things. (Banner made by Donovan).

You seem to be more in line with the NHC, this is my first guesstimate. I took the middle road and went between the most extreme western solution (ECMWF) and the most extreme eastern solution (CMC). I'm not going to do an intensity forecast for the time being.