TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: Donovan on August 21, 2012, 05:04:12 AM
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We have TD 9 as of this morning. NHC expects the storm to become a Hurricane and to track towards the Caribbean and then towards SE Florida. GFS indicates the storm may track up the East Coast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents)
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My God, I haven't been more excited for something to be classified a TD or a TS so badly in my life as this ting. Slow as molasses this thing was, sitting at Code Red for like the past two days. :P
The tricky part is figuring out what parts of Hispanola (possibility is still there it could go over that area) and Cuba it crosses over. 00z GFS is interesting, it starts off as if it will make landfall in S. FL then it heads NNE then N around Savannah! One of the vulnerable hurricane cities, their last hurricane was David back in 1979. As Donovan mentioned after that, it rides parallel offshore up the East Coast.
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I agree with you on that, Tavores! This reminds me of Irene so much in terms of track and timing. It would be very interesting to have a tropical system move up this way, but we don't need a hurricane again on the East Coast. Euro Model takes the system south of Cuba and into the GOM. The 110mph/Cat 2 is what is a bit concerning about the forecast combined with the track. Stephanie is going down to Miami area to report on the 20th Ann. of Hurricane Andrew and she said this morning that if we have Issac, she is already in place to report on it. Lot of things to think about this morning, but we have some time to get the details in. We may have Issac by this afternoon or possible later this morning. TWC's morning teams seem to be focusing on the worst scenario's.
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I agree with you on that, Tavores! This reminds me of Irene so much in terms of track and timing. It would be very interesting to have a tropical system move up this way, but we don't need a hurricane again on the East Coast. Euro Model takes the system south of Cuba and into the GOM. The 110mph/Cat 2 is what is a bit concerning about the forecast combined with the track. Stephanie is going down to Miami area to report on the 20th Ann. of Hurricane Andrew and she said this morning that if we have Issac, she is already in place to report on it. Lot of things to think about this morning, but we have some time to get the details in. We may have Issac by this afternoon or possible later this morning. TWC's morning teams seem to be focusing on the worst scenario's.
Yeah, the European is scarier than the GFS as far as strength, a 962mb low around the FL Keys/S. FL, that could translate to a Major Hurricane. I hope TWC doesn't put the hype machine on full blast too much now BEFORE it's past Cuba. We don't know with true certainty what effects Cuba will have on TD 9 or if it will recover once it's past there. Some tropical cyclones in the past have and some haven't.
A couple of my biggest concerns is
-If this thing manages to be further west into the Gulf it's gonna tap into some boiling SSTs in the 32-33 Celsius range.
With conditions remaining favorable that can be a dangerous combination. :hmm: (This is a worst case scenario though)
-The Republican National Convention is taking place in Tampa, FL the week potential "Issac" arrives. I have no doubts at this point that Tampa won't be affected in some shape or fashion whether it's a direct hit or a complete miss.
On a side note, TD 9 looks much better this morning than it did yesterday, convection has really fired around the center. I believe we have our Issac.
Another side note, I'm not sure many realized this, but if "Issac" becomes a major hurricane affecting FL/East Coast, it will be the first since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005!
TD 9 (As the sun rises)
(http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/5007/td9.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/607/td9.png/)
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Could be our first major hurricane and first possible US landfalling hurricane of the season?
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Could be our first major hurricane and first possible US landfalling hurricane of the season?
It's increasingly likely this will be a US threat, but whether it's a major hurricane remains to be seen. All that can be said right now is the possibility is there.
12z GFS shifted more west, riding along the West Coast of FL, going for a FL panhandle hit. That actually puts it more on par with the European from last night.
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Hmm...well, it's still fair game for the East Coast, but looking at the 11 AM advisory forecast track it looks like Isaac would track into the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico along western Florida. Again, we'll see what happens, but right now the forecast turn for Isaac will not be soon enough to scrape the Eastern Seaboard.
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Flooding could end up being the main story here if this scenario plays out. Check out the rainfall totals from the 12z GFS. Several inches from FL to VA on this run. :o
NOTE: This is between Days 6-10
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I really hope the east coast goes unscathed. Irene was an utter nightmare for the northeast despite it only being a weak Cat 1/TS by landfall
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12z CMC is the furthest east (right) of the global models. However, it has been shifting to the left/west the past few runs. It takes TD 9 across Hispanola, then into the Bahamas and makes landfall not far NE from Charleston. This is Wednesday, August 29th, so it's also two days faster with a US landfall than the GFS/ECMWF are since it takes TD 9 further NW than they do.
(http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/5007/td9.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/155/td9.png/)
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If it cuts across the islands its gonna have a hard time surviving. A lot of the GFS ensembles take it somewhere on the east coast. Could be an interesting one!
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Although it's lacking convection on the NE side of the center/storm itself. I really like the overall symmetrical shape of it. It also looks like it will be fairly large in size, that could work in it's favor if it interacts with high elevations across Cuba/Hispanola. Large, broad storms seem to hold their own going across those areas than small, tiny core storms do.
EDIT: WOW at the 12z Euro! It continued to shift west/left so far west in fact TD 9 misses Cuba/Hispanola/Jamaica completely staying over open waters and heads it's way to the Central Gulf putting LA/MS/AL coastlines in it's path. Pressure plummets to 956mb just offshore.
(http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/6061/td9m.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/42/td9m.png/)
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We have Isaac.
EDIT: I personally disagree with the NHC's forecast track/intensity below, I think it should have been shifted to the west slightly from the last forecasted track and I think they may be getting too conservative on intensity in the short/mid term.
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My take on things. (Banner made by Donovan).
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My take on things. (Banner made by Donovan).
You seem to be more in line with the NHC, this is my first guesstimate. I took the middle road and went between the most extreme western solution (ECMWF) and the most extreme eastern solution (CMC). :yes: I'm not going to do an intensity forecast for the time being. :no:
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The NHC track keeps getting worse and worse (for Isaac) another shift to the right/east over more of Cuba/Hispanola. FAIL for Isaac if it happens, it's never gonna get organized, let alone become a hurricane with a track like that which actually leads me to another issue I have with this track. With such uncertainty/disagreements between two of the most reliable global models (GFS/ECMWF) I don't get why they can't just leave the track unchanged as it is for a couple of advisories.
As far as the ECMWF is concerned, I think it helps it's case somewhat if Isaac continues to remain weak and disorganized the next few days.
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The storm is at 45MPH sustained this morning. I agree with Tavores, this is way too much shifting they're doing, but each time the models are. Still, the track is generally towards Florida and Cuba. Whether or not it goes up the East or West coast of Florida, we need to think about what we'd (People living there, not all of us) do in the event that it does. Generally the median of the models are centered over Florida, although GFS has shifted this latest run. Even though this might sound idiotic, we should probably hope it does go over or towards the East coast. If it goes into the Gulf there will be some serious trouble given the SST's out there. Some of you have already said that much though. I'm wondering if the trof that will be left over the eastern half of the US will pick the system up if it's still in place as in the upper-levels it likely will be.
Edit: If anything in here didn't make sense, blame it on the 'Case-of-the-Morning'. :whistling:
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The storm is at 45MPH sustained this morning. I agree with Tavores, this is way too much shifting they're doing, but each time the models are. Still, the track is generally towards Florida and Cuba. Whether or not it goes up the East or West coast of Florida, we need to think about what we'd (People living there, not all of us) do in the event that it does. Generally the median of the models are centered over Florida, although GFS has shifted this latest run. Even though this might sound idiotic, we should probably hope it does go over or towards the East coast. If it goes into the Gulf there will be some serious trouble given the SST's out there. Some of you have already said that much though. I'm wondering if the trof that will be left over the eastern half of the US will pick the system up if it's still in place as in the upper-levels it likely will be.
Edit: If anything in here didn't make sense, blame it on the 'Case-of-the-Morning'. :whistling:
That's what makes the Euro scary, it still wants to blow Isaac up in the Central Gulf and send it west of New Orleans. It's the only model going that far west so it's technically an outliner, but that doesn't mean it's not right or doesn't have the right idea overall.
If anyone doesn't quite understand why the difference between the GFS/ECMWF is the way it is, part of it is because of the timing of how fast the Central Atlantic ridge breaks down allowing for a weakness/opening for Isaac to go through, but another reason is the GFS manages to keep Isaac's circulation in tact even after taking what seems like a vacation across all of Cuba, I don't buy into that. Meanwhile the ECMWF keeps Isaac disorganized and the circulation decoupled (not vertically stacked together from low/mid/upper levels) along with the fact that the Central Atlantic Ridge is still strong and further west towards the East Coast. It doesn't get it's act together until it's in the Gulf exploding. I don't really buy into this either, more so because it lacks any model support for this.
EDIT: Just looking at the 5am NHC track again, the center track of the cone wouldn't interfere with Haiti too much if at all and it would only brush over the Eastern edge of Cuba after that so I guess it's plausible for it to still be a Cat 1 hurricane once it's near the S. FL/FL Keys. Something else to take note of concerning the center track of the cone, Isaac will have to start moving WNW by later today, if not and it's still moving west the NHC will have to shift their track back to the south and west again. Also if it's south of Haiti by 75W, I think a SE/E Coast track can be taken off the table.
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Sorry for the double post, I hope my forecast doesn't turn out to be too bullish on a weak Cat. 3. I'm basing a large part of that on the fact of the GFS/ECMWF have been blowing it up once it gets into the Gulf past Cuba so I wouldn't be surprised to see R.I (Rapid Intensification) take place. :yes: The track is exactly the same as the one I posted yesterday. I feel no need to change it, I'm fairly confident in it.
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I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))
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Good track, Tavores. I would put the landfall point just a tad bit more east (50-75 miles or so) at this point instead of at the GA/AL border, but again, it depends on how much more the tracks shift west.
Looks like it is gonna be windy and wet for the Republicans in Tampa, regardless.
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Apparently the center of circulation might be relocating further south and west. We'll see, it's still very disorganized which imo puts a little more merit into what the ECMWF has been interpreting.
Also anybody notice it's moving faster again, almost as fast as it was moving 48hrs ago.
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Looks like it is gonna be windy and wet for the Republicans in Tampa, regardless.
...but not for me? I'm in Tampa too. :cry: :P
Anyways, yeah, I am watching this one. The latest track on Monday has Isaac as a Hurricane just off the coast of Sarasota and Charlotte counties! :o
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Warnings/Watches as of 5:00 PM ET:
Hurricane Warning now in effect for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.
Hurricane Watch in effect for all of Haiti's coastlines, all of Puerto Rico's coastlines, and the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical Storm Watch for the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the northern coastline of the Dominican Republic.
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I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))
Double post, sorry. I figured that I'd upload a visualization of my forecasted track...
EDIT: Really starting to agree with the ECMWF with a LA/MS/AL border landfall. Possibly as a Cat 2 or 3.
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I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))
Oh no, this is getting me excited! :thrilled:
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I agree with Tavores' track, except I think that Isaac may take a hard right (due to the RI previously mentioned) and pull a Charley right into Florida, possibly near Tampa (sorry Zach ;))
Oh no, this is getting me excited! :thrilled:
If Isaac makes landfall anywhere along the FL panhandle, I'll get to see my first possible hurricane heading toward me or close to me in years on the IntelliStar. I remember seeing Frances in '04 on the IntelliStar heading my way. THAT got me excited! :thrilled: Seeing those big, thick, heavy rainbands just barreling towards me from the south. We lost power for a little while and had some flooding, best of all no school which was great because I had a came down with a cold anyway and plus it gave me an extra day to do homework that I didn't do. :P (SIGHS) How I wish the light bulb had of gone off in my head to throw in a blank tape into the VCR to record some footage of Frances and Ivan. THAT makes me feel sad that I didn't do it. :cry3:
@Trevor - I like that track, it's very plausible. :yes:
EDIT: Starting tomorrow, NWS offices in AL/MS/GA/FL will launch weather balloons to hopefully better access the situation with the incoming trough and the position/strength of the Southern Plains Ridge so the track inconsistencies will hopefully start coming to a consensus soon. That data from the weather balloons should be ingested into the 00z model runs tomorrow night.
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For those who don't know, Denis Phillips (Chief Meteorologist at Tampa's ABC affiliate) hosts a nightly weather web-chat. During the tropical season, the focus is mainly on tropics. He provides a lot of great insight and shows a lot of models. There's also a chat so you can ask him questions. I advise you to check it out if you want info on Isaac. It starts at 7 PM ET.
http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/weather/weather_blogs/Live-chat-with-the-ABC-Action-News-weather-team (http://www.abcactionnews.com/generic/weather/weather_blogs/Live-chat-with-the-ABC-Action-News-weather-team)
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I'm expecting the NHC forecast cone to shift back to the left/west at 11pm tonight, Majority of the models (in the attachment below) have shifted west to the Eastern Gulf or right over FL.
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Well, the NHC looks to be hinting at leaning toward the EURO at the 11 PM advisory...
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL+gif/025753W5_NL_sm.gif)
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The amount of land this tropical storm encounters in the next several days will determine everything here from intensity to impacts in the United States. Before you all go wild in predicting landfalls in the United States, keep in mind how many tropical cyclones have been torn apart by the high mountains in Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in previous years. I'm holding off my thoughts until I see better model consensus as I want to note how Isaac navigates through the Caribbean. Also, the current forward speed of 20 mph is too fast to allow good intensification.
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The amount of land this tropical storm encounters in the next several days will determine everything here from intensity to impacts in the United States. Before you all go wild in predicting landfalls in the United States, keep in mind how many tropical cyclones have been torn apart by the high mountains in Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in previous years. I'm holding off my thoughts until I see better model consensus as I want to note how Irene navigates through the Caribbean. Also, the current forward speed of 20 mph is too fast to allow good intensification.
I don't know how true this is, but I've heard large, broad, unorganized systems tend to keep their mid level circulation in tact better than small, tight core developed systems when going over high elevated areas such as Cuba and Haiti.
Anyway, this is my second forecast, shifted slightly to the left/west. (Still in between the GFS/ECMWF)
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Isaac will be an interesting storm to track
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Looks like the 0z GFS/ECMWF are more in line with my landfall track. :o GFS is only slightly east by a hair and the ECMWF is slightly west. The key thing here is both models are getting closer and closer to a consensus!
EDIT: Updated intensities, my track remains the same.
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Nice job on the track Tavores! It's a bit too early to tell, but I think we may get some TD or TS impacts here in SC from this system in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe. GFS (normal) takes the system's central pressure just offshore of Charleston/Savannah after crossing FL/GA on Sunday/Monday. Local NWS office has included in an HWO the chance for Tropical Storm conditions here, which was a bit shocking. Also on an unrelated, but 'tropical' note, they also included the enhanced risk for water spouts in coastal areas today.
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I honestly think that the COC will miss Hispaniola all together, and only scrape the northern tip of Cuba, before making landfall somewhere in the eastern Gulf.
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NAM continues to be the far-east outlier, showing a landfall likely in northern FL or as far north as NC (however, I'm just guessing since the NAM goes out to only 84 hours) but it is certainly showing a western Atlantic storm.
The Euro continues to be the far-west outlier (even though it trended ever so slightly east with the 00z run.) It shows Isaac hitting the MS gulf coast as a hurricane.
I'll analyze further, but currently I'm forecasting a cross between a 00z GFS and 00z CMC (making landfall near the Everglades.)
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Isaac weakened earlier today and winds are back to 40 mph as of 2 PM this afternoon. Assuming terrain doesn't get in the way, the conditions across Isaac's forecast path are ideal for rapid intensification and the storm could still become a hurricane within the next 2 days.
It is important to note that NHC's intensity forecast is very bullish, as their forecast is well above the majority of the intensity model spread.
Satellite presentation looks better and Dvorak numbers are at 3.0 which is indicative of winds to 45 knots. Combined with recon data which has max winds of 47 knots at the vortex, I will take a guess that Isaac's estimated winds will be back up to 40 knots - 45 mph at 5 PM. As on track, I suspect a continuation of the previous track with a slight adjustment to the west yet again.
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I guess the Canadian can't be called an eastern outliner anymore, it's FINALLY jumped ship with the GFS for FL a hit, it's east of the GFS, but it's a big shift west when previously it was still aiming for N/SC hit.
There's no other word to describe the 12 ECMWF except WILD both in track and intensity. :o It went back west for a TX/LA landfall. That would be our Doomsday scenario if it ends up coming close to verifying, but again it's the only model going that far west and in addition it made a very radical jump back west so I'm not sure I believe that yet.
00z runs will be fun and interesting, they'll be ingested with a lot more data on the upper level pattern across the CONUS/Western Atlantic Ocean that should really help out hopefully on not only track, but give more clarity on things such as what effects on the timing of the breaking down of the C.A Ridge and timing of a trough across the CONUS will have on Isaac once heading for the Western Caribbean/Southern Gulf.
FINAL THOUGHT: I've been saying for the past few days I expect Isaac to be southwest of hitting Haiti and I still believe that now. We'll see if that's the case over the next 24-48 hours.
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Someone order a hurricane?
(http://www.theimaginarywedding.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Isaac-Washington.jpg)
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Track west again, includes New Orleans in the cone.
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11 PM ET Update (Advisory #12):
Max Winds: 45 MPH
Pressure: 1001 mb
Location: 16.7 N; 68.7 W
Movement: WNW at 18 MPH
Watches/Warnings:
All Hurricane Warnings have been discontinued with this advisory.
Tropical Storm Warning in effect for all coastlines of Hispaniola, southern tip of Cuba, and the southern Bahamas.
Hurricane Watch in effect for the coastlines of Haiti.
Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Bahamas and the middle coastlines of Cuba.
New Track...looks like the NHC finally decided to jump on board with a LA/MS/AL landfall:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL_sm2+gif/025134W5_NL_sm.gif)
I also threw this together this morning as I was getting ready for school, but never posted it. Coincidentally, AccuWeather posted a similar graphic at around 3:00 PM this afternoon.
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Three changes in the new track:
1) Day 1-3 forecast track has been shifted eastward.
2) Track is assuming a faster forward speed and now points to landfall on Tuesday evening.
3) Forecast landfall point has been shifted west yet again to due south of Mobile, AL - a few more shifts and it could be headed towards Louisiana.
EDIT: Geez, seems like EVERYONE was waiting on this track to come out.
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There's way too much inconsistency in the models to pinpoint impacts for the United States with any reliability. Everything keeps shifting westward in the latest runs, but things could easily swing back eastward in a couple days as new data arrives. I still want to see how Isaac will cope in its journey ahead with crossing Haiti and Cuba.
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This 1851 hurricane looks like a decent analog right about now. (Up to landfall that is)
(http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1851_charts/at185104.gif)
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Looks like I may be boarding up windows early next week (hope not).
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Looks like I may be boarding up windows early next week (hope not).
The Euro shifted east considerably and is actually in line with the GFS for the first time. I'd shoot for a landfall between Mobile and Pensacola based on those two.
Although the hurricane hunters are having a hard time finding a center where the NHC last depicted. Might be further south and west. That could throw a wrench in things.
I also wonder how bad the mountains in Cuba are going to gut Isaac.
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I did a little quick research on past storms that have had a similar path over Cuba/Southwestern Haiti as projected by the NHC and below are those storms and how strong they were post-Cuba making landfall in the Gulf. All of these storms went across some high elevations of Cuba or in fact tracked across a large portion of Cuba and were able to steadily or quickly recover in the Gulf. In addition, most of these storms occurred around the same time as Isaac and into the peak of Hurricane Season. Keep in mind, I'm not trying to suggest or predict Isaac will have the same fate as the ones listed below, I just felt it was an interesting food for thought. My overall point here is that even though Isaac could go over Cuba and scrape the Southern part of Haiti it doesn't necessarily mean it's out when it's down. It has a decent potential to recover quickly as long as it doesn't do anything wacky like sit and stall destroying what circulation is left once it's in the Gulf.
I was gonna post some honorable mentions, but my list would have been a lot longer.
Great Middle Florida Hurricane (August 16-27, 1851)
Category Three (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane 3 (September 8-18, 1875)
Category Three (US Landfall)
Hurricane 5 (September 1-13, 1878)
Category Two (US Landfall)
Indianola Hurricane (August 12-21, 1886)
Category Four (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane 4 (September 18-October 1, 1894)
Category One (US Landfall)
Great Galveston Hurricane (August 27-September 15, 1900)
Category Four (US Landfall)
Hurricane 2 (August 8-17, 1928)
Tropical Storm (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane Cleo (August 20 - September 5, 1964)
Category Two (US Landfall)
Major Hurricane Georges (September 15-October 1, 1998)
Category Two (US Landfall)
EDIT: In other news, Isaac may be finally starting to develop a vertically stacked circulation, RECON is finding peak flight level winds as strong as 62kts. or 71mph. Surface winds are coming in at 56 kts. We might see winds bumped up into the 55-65mph range come the 11am advisory.
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
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Isaac has finally slowed down to a forward speed of 14 mph, which has helped improve its organization. The winds have increased to 60 mph. If it can somehow stay just south of the mountains in Haiti and survive the trek through Cuba, then I would be ready to start calling out the Gulf Coast for landfall with certainty.
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ECMWF is NOT wavering from a Central Gulf (Mobile) hit from the 00z run last night. For verbatim, I'm sure it's showing a major, it bombs down to 963mb! :o That's two identical runs so far.
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8pm Update: Pressure continues to fall and forward motion has slowed down. Wind speeds remain at 65mph. Something tells me Isaac has a few tricks up his sleeves. :thinking:
Location: 17.3°N 72.0°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
11pm Adivisory - Significant change to track, Isaac could possibly miss hitting most of Cuba! Strong Cat 1 hurricane expected at landfall. (90mph)
Location: 17.7°N 72.5°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL+gif/024913W5_NL_sm.gif)
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After looking over all the models today, I'm ready to say that eastern LA, MS, AL, GA, and FL are in the line of fire for this storm. I'm really worried about the areas in MS and AL that still haven't recovered completely from Katrina. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning are now in effect for southern FL. There's even a possibility that Isaac could mostly bypass Cuba to the north, which would make it a stronger storm approaching the Gulf.
Looking further ahead after landfall, Isaac may stall out over the Southeast, which would lead to major flooding problems. A front over the Mid-Atlantic and surface high pressure over the Great Lakes may block it from advancing any further northward for a long while. In short, all people in the areas mentioned above should start preparing now if they haven't done so already. My red avatar being up at this point ought to give everyone a clue.
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This storm keeps surprising me with every advisory. 24 hours ago I would have never expected it to wind up like this. Dr. Greg Postel/Brian Norcross predicted the NHC would change their forecast cone into more of a "S Bend" shape around the northern periphery of Cuba heading into the Gulf. :yes:
EDIT: Do I need to go to sleep or is that really an eye popping out? :unsure: :thinking:
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Watches/Warnings Update:
Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys and SW Florida.
Hurricane Watch for the Miami area and Haiti
Tropical Storm Warning for Lake Okeechobee, portions of SE Florida, the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, and the southern tip of Cuba
Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Western Florida, Central Cuba, and Jamaica.
*Bold indicates that the US is affected
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HPC has me getting 8-10 inches, I haven't seen that much rainfall at one time since the Great Flood of 2009 where we got about that much on September 21, 2009. That whole month alone was nothing but floods. :wacko: Ironically that should be enough rainfall to erase our entire drought or at least the majority of it. :yes:
EDIT: 11am advisory - Nothing changed as far as it's strength or pressure, but it has increased in forward speed and the NHC is now calling for a Category Two Hurricane (100mph) surprised by that change. I wonder if the HWRF had any affect on that decision, it kept showing a major hurricane striking the Central Gulf. :thinking:
11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 20.1°N 74.6°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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There is already effects of Isaac around Miami and in South Florida, and some outer bands could reach parts of the Bay Area by tonight.
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Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Bay Area as well. :yes:
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The Daytona Beach area is under a tropical storm watch... and my weather radio loudly informed me of that. As I was trying to sleep. I nearly crashed through the ceiling.
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There is already effects of Isaac around Miami and in South Florida, and some outer bands could reach parts of the Bay Area by tonight.
That's not from Isaac, that's from an upper low disturbance that's actually guiding Isaac NW. That disturbance will move to the WSW further into the Gulf so Isaac can begin to make his WNW turn towards the FL Keys over the next 24 hours.
I feel I should make notice of this, the models continue to not only strengthen (In a lot of cases bomb) Isaac. The 12z GFS today shows for verbatim a major hurricane striking west of Mobile, AL. What concerns me more is the models continue to slow Isaac down while it's in the Gulf approaching to make landfall, I don't have to tell you how much that's not a good thing. :no: That gives it the opportunity to continue to strengthen which means if that happens, the NHC's forecast of 100mph could turn out to be a little conservative we'll see how things evolve over the next 24-72hours this will be Isaac's time to shine if he plans to.
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Look at the HWRF...holy crap. That would make this a Category 3 making landfall near Destin, FL. I bet, however, that this is completely different by tomorrow. At least intensity wise...HWRF is holding strong on the track.
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Now we got the HWRF, GFS, and the last ECMWF run (for verbatim) calling for a major hurricane.
Below is the HPC's 5 day rainfall forecast
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Time to roll out the storm alert music :thrilled:
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Time to roll out the storm alert music :thrilled:
I agree! B)
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They didn't do it last year for Irene but who knows about this time around. :dunno:
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They didn't do it last year for Irene but who knows about this time around. :dunno:
Irene wasn't a major hurricane. Although Isaac isn't forecasted to be one either, the possibility is there especially if any RI manages to take place across it's journey into the Gulf. They might use it again.
Ike in 2008 was an exception, but because of it's pressure you could argue it was a major hurricane anyway regardless of it not being classified as one.
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Irene was a major hurricane, of course not on landfall but it was. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it was once forecast to hit NC as a Cat 3, contradicting the fact that they use storm alert for major hurricanes only.
They may only use it when a hurricane is forecast to strike as a Cat 3 or higher. That said, they would have used it last year with Irene when it was a major hurricane.
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It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.
I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently) ;)
EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see... :thinking:
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To be honest, I don't think we'll ever hear the Storm Alert music on the local forecast again. By tomorrow (before Isaac hits the Keys), they will probably preempt all regular programming (if they haven't already today), and reduce the local forecasts to the :28's and :58's.
Anyway, as of 2PM EDT, Isaac weakened ever so slightly due to it impacting Cuba. It's pressure is now up to 1000mb, but winds remain at 60 mph.
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To be honest, I don't think we'll ever hear the Storm Alert music on the local forecast again. By tomorrow (before Isaac hits the Keys), they will probably preempt all regular programming (if they haven't already today), and reduce the local forecasts to the :28's and :58's.
Anyway, as of 2PM EDT, Isaac weakened ever so slightly due to it impacting Cuba. It's pressure is now up to 1000mb, but winds remain at 60 mph.
Longform hasn't been on since about Thursday afternoon if I'm not mistaken. Many of the OCMs have mentioned they will be live nonstop for several days possibly as late as the end of next week.
A new 5pm advisory is out, pressure has dropped once again to 997mb. wind speed remains at 60 mph, however it has sped up once again to 21 mph still moving NW.
On the new forecast cone it appears in the short term they shifted the cone a little more north away from the North/Central half of Cuba's coast, in fact that area is no longer in the cone.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL_sm2+gif/152841W5_NL_sm.gif)
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It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.
I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently) ;)
EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see... :thinking:
Not to argue, but then how can TWC start playing storm alert music if it has made landfall yet as a Cat 3. According to you, the criteria for storm alert music to start wouldn't be determined until after the storm makes landfall. Any storm can rapidly intensify or de-intensify. So the only way to determine whether or not to play storm alert music lies in the forecast, and Irene was forecasted at once to make landfall as a Cat 3.
Anyway, the way the music has been going on TWC, I don't think storm alert music won't be used. It'll probably be like last year where they executed the L-Bar squeezeback LF's, boy were those detailed. :rolleyes:
Here's the latest image from GOES project:
(http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/5909/isaacgoes.jpg)
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Twc showed longform this morning..hurricane hunters and weather classroom until 4:30. Perhaps tonight that'll change though
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Twc showed longform this morning..hurricane hunters and weather classroom until 4:30. Perhaps tonight that'll change though
Those are part of "Weather in the Classroom", so that is likely bound for exemption.
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It was forecasted to be a Cat 3 in NC, but that never materialized. It only made landfall in NC as a Cat. 1. so it would have failed the criteria of going into Storm Alert for a Cat 3 or higher hurricane making landfall.
I forgot they also made the exception for not only Ike, but Ernesto as well. I don't remember what Ernesto was forecasted to peak up to as a hurricane, but it obviously failed even more to meet that criteria. As far as we know, the criteria may have been thrown out the window and they just decide to use it whenever they feel it's necessary. (IF it even does exist and hasn't been discontinued permanently) ;)
EDIT: Convection seems to be firing up on the east side of where the COC is, it may try to wrap back around later on tonight, we'll see... :thinking:
Not to argue, but then how can TWC start playing storm alert music if it has made landfall yet as a Cat 3. According to you, the criteria for storm alert music to start wouldn't be determined until after the storm makes landfall. Any storm can rapidly intensify or de-intensify. So the only way to determine whether or not to play storm alert music lies in the forecast, and Irene was forecasted at once to make landfall as a Cat 3.
Anyway, the way the music has been going on TWC, I don't think storm alert music won't be used. It'll probably be like last year where they executed the L-Bar squeezeback LF's, boy were those detailed. :rolleyes:
Here's the latest image from GOES project:
That's ok, I wasn't trying to start an argument anyway, I was just stating what seemed to have been the general assessment of how SA was done in the past, to be honest I don't know if that's true or not. From what I can remember from the times when SA started in the past I believe it was about 24 hours or less prior to landfall. That's probably when that criteria would be used to decide whether it was necessary or not. :dunno: I'm sorry if it came across as if I knew for certain that's how it was implemented, it was really just an assumption going by what they did for Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc.
The contradictory you speak of lies with TWC also if that's really how the criteria was done for SA. It doesn't make any sense if it was decided several days prior or only 24 hours prior for the same reasons you mentioned because tropical cyclones can weaken or strengthen without much of a moment's notice. They could have used it for all hurricanes regardless of category for that matter.
EDIT: This validates my concerns...From the 5pm discussion.
A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE
REACHES OPEN WATER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD
ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
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I'm really not liking this, NOLA doesn't need this, neither does Mobile, Biloxi, or Slidell. :no:
(http://www.texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/aal09_2012082600_track_early.png)
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As of this morning, Jim Cantore was in Tampa. If other 00z runs are in agreement with an even further west track, they better quickly fly him over to Biloxi if possible.
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The NHC track has shifted west again and the intensity forecast has been increased ever-so-slightly. Also of note is that the circulation of Isaac has remained entirely offshore of Cuba, so it has a better chance of remaining organized and strengthening quite a bit. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a rapid intensification episode, especially given the low shear and very warm waters over the Gulf.
Side note: Anyone else notice Isaac should make landfall at the same day as Katrina did?
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The NHC track has shifted west again and the intensity forecast has been increased ever-so-slightly. Also of note is that the circulation of Isaac has remained entirely offshore of Cuba, so it has a better chance of remaining organized and strengthening quite a bit. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a rapid intensification episode, especially given the low shear and very warm waters over the Gulf.
Side note: Anyone else notice Isaac should make landfall at the same day as Katrina did?
Yes, that's what makes it even more eerie. I could imagine anyone from New Orleans on over to Mobile are on pins and needles about this. :(
Looks like Isaac is sick and tired of playing games...RECON will be flying in giving updates around 1:30am, something tells me they may be able to find strong enough winds around the center to knock this back up to at least around where it was before Haiti at 70 mph.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120826&endtime=0052&nframes=150&band=2&res=4&aniwidth=1280&aniheight=1024 (http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120826&endtime=0052&nframes=150&band=2&res=4&aniwidth=1280&aniheight=1024)
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According to wcau, they expect it to strengthen to a Cat 2 during landfall near mobile
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I was going to make a final track/intensity map today, but honestly I'm more turned upside down now than I ever have been. :wacko: I was certainly NOT expecting this sudden change in events for a westward trend. It looks like most models are in agreement that the trough in the Northern Plains will not dig far enough south to pick up Isaac and pull him north and east quickly. If the 12z runs today continue this, the chances will be greatly increasing for a MS/LA hit. Emergency management in those areas might want to consider evacuation options today. The unfortunate thing is they don't have much more time to do so, I'm not sure if this is true because I can't really recall, but I hear it would take up to 72 hours to evacuate NOLA again, that's about how much time they have left before Isaac is to strike so if they don't go into action on something now they could be in for some problems. :(
EDIT: Isaac continues to organize nicely this morning, it fact the SW portion of the COC had been lacking convection last night is now starting to flare up with convection. If it continues we might have a closed convective circulation later on today. Convection is also firing up on the S and W side of the storm overall which was also lacking.
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My school district is taking a bit of extra precaution and has decided to cancel classes tomorrow.
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My school district is taking a bit of extra precaution and has decided to cancel classes tomorrow.
Better to be safe than sorry especially if the storm surge forecasts verify.
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Hurricane Watch extended. I've got all the details here (http://www.livestream.com/trevorsliveshow).
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FYI, Evacuations are starting on the oil rigs out in the Gulf.
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12z GFS taking Isaac all the way to the Texas/ Louisiana border. :thinking:
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5 PM ET Advisory:
Winds: 60 MPH
Pressure: 992 mb (down from 995 mb)
Moving: WNW at 16 MPH
Location: 24.2 N; 82.3 W
Watches/Warnings:
Hurricane Warning in effect from Morgan City, LA to Destin, FL
Hurricane Watch from Destin, FL to Panama City Beach, FL
Tropical Storm Warning from Panama City Beach, FL to Palm Bay, FL (including Lake Okeechobee).
New Track:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL+gif/152348W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Bold prediction here: I believe we'll have Hurricane Isaac between the 11pm - 5am advisories given how things are trending tonight.
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Latest Dvorak estimate is 3.6 with estimated pressure at 985 mb. VMax is now 57 knots.
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As 11PM advisory, still a 65mph tropical storm, pressure up from 991 to 993mb.
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The people here at LSU are very aware of the situation and are urging students and faculty to prepare. I don't plan on evacuating, so I'll take pics and video if anything exciting happens--safely, of course.
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HRD/AOML/NOAA @HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 radar suggests an eye is forming in #Isaac.It is elliptical with major axis WNW-ESE and diameter 30 nm. In major bands to west.
HRD/AOML/NOAA @HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 noticed a low level swirl of clouds as we passed through the center of #Isaac on this pass. Clouds and radar suggest eye forming.
HRD/AOML/NOAA @HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 is tracking west 100 nm north of #Isaac center just outside the major rainband in and out of sun. Huge cumulonimbus to our left.
https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA
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Bold prediction here: I believe we'll have Hurricane Isaac between the 11pm - 5am advisories given how things are trending tonight.
Isaac needs more time than you think, Tavores. It has not developed a persistent inner core yet, and the wind field is rather large for a tropical storm. You want to see a tightening up of that wind field and the development of an inner core, which would become the inner eyewall once it is a hurricane, to achieve overall intensification. Furthermore, the inflow for Isaac in the southeast quadrant has been disrupted for the past few days by the mountains in Cuba. It will do better once the inflow is further away from land.
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Bold prediction here: I believe we'll have Hurricane Isaac between the 11pm - 5am advisories given how things are trending tonight.
Isaac needs more time than you think, Tavores. It has not developed a persistent inner core yet, and the wind field is rather large for a tropical storm. You want to see a tightening up of that wind field and the development of an inner core, which would become the inner eyewall once it is a hurricane, to achieve overall intensification. Furthermore, the inflow for Isaac in the southeast quadrant has been disrupted for the past few days by the mountains in Cuba. It will do better once the inflow is further away from land.
I know Patrick, I wasn't really all that serious about it. I know large storms take an enormously long time to consolidate an eye, just look at how long this thing has been a tropical storm! Over a week I know, that's gotta be some kind of a record. :P Oh and speaking of an eye...about halfway there on this microwave image.
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2012_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_07.gif)
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We might have our hurricane at 5pm... :thinking:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:23Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 19:30:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°14'N 85°56'W (26.2333N 85.9333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (394 km) to the WSW (241°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,280m (4,199ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 100° at 54kts (From the E at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,543m (5,062ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,544m (5,066ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:52:30Z
CLOSE, but no cigar, winds up to 70 mph, pressure continues to drop down to 981mb and is now moving NW at 12 mph per 5pm advisory. NHC is once again forecasting a Cat. 2 hurricane (100mph) by landfall.
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The key is seeing the pressure dropping. Pressure is always the first variable to respond during intensification. The winds will respond later, so I expect Isaac to become a hurricane tonight. It's not looking good for New Orleans, LA and Biloxi, MS. Hopefully, Isaac won't bring near the impacts that Katrina did in these areas exactly 7 years ago.
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Notice the convection firing up from the NW, N, and NE sides. It's truly amazing how this thing has taken on a different shape every evening over the past week. Looks more like a textbook tropical cyclone than it ever has in it's entire lifetime. :yes:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120827&endtime=2054&nframes=100&band=1&res=4&aniwidth=1280&aniheight=1024 (http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20120827&endtime=2054&nframes=100&band=1&res=4&aniwidth=1280&aniheight=1024)
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Hi everyone!Tropical Storm Issac gave some nice breezy, rainy weather for me in Fort Myers.I took some pics of the storm.
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Starting to burst convection around the northern part of the center. It'll be interesting to see what we have over the next 10-15 hours. It might be me, but it looks like Isaac is shedding some of his skin that band that was covering up a large part of FL/southern GA seems to be detaching itself away from Isaac condensing it's size.
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What's the wind speed for the storm right now?
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What's the wind speed for the storm right now?
Still 70mph with a 981mb pressure. RECON is out investigating right now. We could have a Cat 1 hurricane within anytime over the next 12-15 hours or so.
11PM UPDATE - ISAAC'S WINDS REMAIN AT 70 MPH, PRESSURE DROPS TO 979MB!
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That dry air is something else, isn't it? The pressure has been falling for much of the day, but the winds have yet to catch up thanks to that dry air. I think we'll have a 75-85 mph hurricane tomorrow.
Some people evacuated from across the region, but most have been raiding the stores and are staying put.
Oh, and most of the New Orleans TV stations have gone to around-the-clock coverage.
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Hopefully this shows up well. Isaac's impacts from NWS New Orleans.
(if all the graphics don't show, go here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/ (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/)
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"Eye" See You Isaac.
(http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_08_2012/post-2355-0-14216400-1346149260.jpg)
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Given the reports coming in from RECON as of late, I feel 99.9% positive we have at least a 75 mph hurricane. I just don't see how we don't. :no:
EDIT: 12:20PM ET - 11 AM ADVISORY UPDATED; SPECIAL ADVISORY ISSUED; ISAAC NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. (75 mph)Surface Winds of 66kts and Flight level winds over 90kts being reported
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Isaac is now officially a hurricane. It literally crossed over the threshold just after the 11 AM EDT advisory. We shouldn't be worried so much about the terminology here between a 70 mph tropical storm and a 75 mph hurricane as flooding and storm surge are going to be the major issues, not winds. Here's a part of the summary statement:
LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB
Anyone in LA and the lower Mississippi River valley needs to be ready for major flooding problems over the next couple days.
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Isaac attempting to build an eyewall: TAKE TWO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html)
I thought about this today, well the past couple of days. Is there a chance Isaac will cause upwelling the longer it sits out there in the gulf?
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The 5 PM EDT advisory now shows Isaac is strengthening. The winds are up to 80 mph. Isaac is going to hug the LA coastline and move inland at an agonizingly slow pace, which means there will be a ton of long-lasting rain and storm surge.
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What a great looking hurricane! (from a meteorological perspective) So large, yet so symmetrically shaped now. The eye is fairly large as well.
(http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES20402012241tuee8K.jpg)
However, there's nothing great about the havoc it will continue to unleash.
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Advisories will be issued hourly from now until the next landfall. The first landfall was in SE Louisiana at 6:45pm CDT.
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At least two models are showing Isaac stalling just NW of it's current location until Thursday morning.
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Double post...sorry, but this is worth it.
There are unconfirmed reports that some of our worst fears have come true...there are unconfirmed reports of a levee breach in Southern Louisiana.
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Double post...sorry, but this is worth it.
There are unconfirmed reports that some of our worst fears have come true...there are unconfirmed reports of a levee breach in Southern Louisiana.
Oh no, this is BAD. I hope everyone has evacuated.
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Some observation ,eh?
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Some observation ,eh?
Heavy snow in Louisiana? Unheard of :P
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Wow, just look at this observation out of Lakefront Airport! :o
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Jim has been taking a beating in NOLA during WUWA this morning. This might be the first time I've seen Jim dare I say.......exhausted out there?
The is the most bizarre, yet most interesting storm to track this season and even though apparently it has made a second landfall, I doubt it will be the last, most of the center is still in the Gulf S of LA! It's just sitting and spinning and as Dr. Knabb said himself not only do large storms take longer to organize, they take longer to wind down so Isaac ain't giving up without a good fight.
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WS 4000 Emu Port Sulphur, LA AM Local Forecast 6/29/12 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDeoMazIA9c#)
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I feel pretty bad for that Plaquemines Parish Pres. His house got damaged badly, he lost most of his roof, a back wall and flooding waters is rushing in because water has overflowed the levees and they're on the brink of being compromised. He said himself he thinks this is just as worse if not more worse than Katrina in that area. :(
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At least Katrina wreaked its havoc and moved on. Isaac is just sitting pretty much in one place and barely budging, not getting any weaker, and dropping tremendous amounts of rain on the same areas that have already gotten a lot, not to mention the continuous storm surge the coast is getting.
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I have to rant as I'm hearing people and the media complaining that they were unprepared as it was only a tropical storm and later a Category 1 hurricane. Apparently, they forgot that the categories only refer to wind as described in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which NHC posted on their website months ago. Every tropical storm and hurricane is dangerous, which is why NHC issues warnings for all of them! The hurricane watches and warnings were even extended 12 hours compared to previous seasons. There are people trapped in areas that were under mandatory evacuations for the past two days.
Maybe Isaac will finally get the point across that you don't need a major hurricane like Katrina to cause extreme problems. Because Isaac is a large cyclone and is being blocked by an upper-level ridge to the north, it's going to spin over LA for the next 24 hours while dumping tons of rain and pushing lots of water onshore. It will finally move northward once the ridge clears to the east, but Isaac will continue to bring major flooding issues far inland. I'm really glad all of you in this forum are far more intelligent and know what to do with dangerous weather conditions, but I'm really shocked at how poorly the general public doesn't understand or care.
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I have to rant as I'm hearing people and the media complaining that they were unprepared as it was only a tropical storm and later a Category 1 hurricane. Apparently, they forgot that the categories only refer to wind as described in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which NHC posted on their website months ago. Every tropical storm and hurricane is dangerous, which is why NHC issues warnings for all of them! The hurricane watches and warnings were even extended 12 hours compared to previous seasons. There are people trapped in areas that were under mandatory evacuations for the past two days.
Maybe Isaac will finally get the point across that you don't need a major hurricane like Katrina to cause extreme problems. Because Isaac is a large cyclone and is being blocked by an upper-level ridge to the north, it's going to spin over LA for the next 24 hours while dumping tons of rain and pushing lots of water onshore. It will finally move northward once the ridge clears to the east, but Isaac will continue to bring major flooding issues far inland. I'm really glad all of you in this forum are far more intelligent and know what to do with dangerous weather conditions, but I'm really shocked at how poorly the general public doesn't understand or care.
Thank you! :D This is exactly what our meteorology professor was telling us yesterday. A rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale almost means nothing as it just refers to wind speeds, and he said the NHC finally updated the storm to a hurricane just so people would act differently (because, as he mentioned, it's likely that people will take more precaution when they hear the word "hurricane" than when they hear the word "tropical storm.") Yeah, at the time it was upgraded winds were probably at hurricane strength, but still. The main problems of this thing are going to be flooding/storm surge, which can be more catastrophic than winds.
It just makes me wonder, and possibly others, if NHC should think of some other scale that assesses ALL aspects of a hurricane. Is this even possible?
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Patrick, we live in a country of complacency. It doesn't matter if you issue Hurricane Warnings and warn people door to door 5 days out some people are gonna stay regardless, some are reasonable, others are just downright ridiculous and pure stubbornness as to why they ride out storms. The NHC and the media have to find a way to work together to educate folks who are ignorant to how tropical cyclones work and that they're can be unusual circumstances to certain tropical cyclones in their strength/size. Personally I think they need to get rid of the Saffir-Simpson scale and make up a scale that mainly focuses on storm surge/flooding. I don't know exactly how it should be done, but there needs to be more emphasis on those two things rather than wind.
In a way, Louisiana got spared FAR WORSE than what could have came to futon. Had those flight level winds over 110kts had of completely made it down to the surface before Isaac made landfall, there's not doubt Isaac would have been a major hurricane (Cat 3./weak Cat 4.). It's large size and the fact that it had started running out of time over water kept that from happening. Last night, I heard the Plaquemines Parish President say this about Isaac. "No one is convincing me this was a Category 1. The damage I am seeing today is worse than Katrina". Technically he's half right because of the low barometric pressure being more eqivalent of a Cat. 3 ., but that statement from him should be a wake up call to how a large Cat 1. hurricane can cause as much if not even more havoc as a small/medium sized Cat 3. or higher. Prior to that when he was being interviewed by Crystal Egger/Chris Warren, he mentioned that the water was only about 2 feet from overflowing the levees there and yet he actually believed they would be ok and it would recede because of low tide...Seriously? :huh:
When Mike Seidel was covering Isaac in Cuba he mentioned how in their government, if they told you to evacuate there was no ifs, ands, or buts about it. You were FORCED to leave on your own or they would bring a bus to pick you up and take you to safer ground because they want to limit the amount of deaths to near 0 as they can possibly do. Here, you either leave or the hell with you which is sad, it should be mandatory in a mandatory evacuation that people like the elderly for example should be provided transportation so they can leave.
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I agree that the Saffir-Simpson Scale is limited in usefulness. It was created in 1971 to communicate the threat of tropical cyclones in an easy way that the public could understand, but we've learned way more about tropical cyclones since that time. Flooding and storm surge make up 90% of all hurricane deaths, but people get caught up on the winds so much that they neglect this crucial fact. The reality is that every landfall of a tropical cyclone is unique due to size, structure, movement, atmospheric conditions aloft, sea surface temperatures, winds, coastline geography, and so much more. I could imagine creating four separate risk scales for flooding, storm surge, tornadoes, and winds. Unfortunately, they would all be highly subjective as you wouldn't know what to put as low, medium, or high risk due to all the complex factors I mentioned above. Thus, you can't quantify the risk of any landfall in one nice scale with any reliability.
Ultimately, education is the best way to deal with this problem rather than creating risk scales. The public's lack of caring about weather and not wanting to understand its complexity has to be changed dramatically, or we'll continue to see deaths due to people not knowing what to do in warnings. The media and the NHC have been trying to educate the public for years. There are tons of books, pamphlets, and shows that teach you about the weather. The NWS local offices issue warnings that tell you the threats and provide call-to-action statements that tell you what to do, but it's clear that many people still don't read them. If people aren't willing to learn, then there's sadly nothing we can do other than use Cuba's tactic of brute force.
Anyway, Isaac has been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph, but it's going to be another long night in New Orleans.
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When Mike Seidel was covering Isaac in Cuba he mentioned how in their government, if they told you to evacuate there was no ifs, ands, or buts about it. You were FORCED to leave on your own or they would bring a bus to pick you up and take you to safer ground because they want to limit the amount of deaths to near 0 as they can possibly do. Here, you either leave or the hell with you which is sad, it should be mandatory in a mandatory evacuation that people like the elderly for example should be provided transportation so they can leave.
As a guy who believes in natural selection, I am okay with this. Let the people who want to stay risk their lives while everyone else wisely gets out of town. Sorry if this sounds cruel.
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When Mike Seidel was covering Isaac in Cuba he mentioned how in their government, if they told you to evacuate there was no ifs, ands, or buts about it. You were FORCED to leave on your own or they would bring a bus to pick you up and take you to safer ground because they want to limit the amount of deaths to near 0 as they can possibly do. Here, you either leave or the hell with you which is sad, it should be mandatory in a mandatory evacuation that people like the elderly for example should be provided transportation so they can leave.
As a guy who believes in natural selection, I am okay with this. Let the people who want to stay risk their lives while everyone else wisely gets out of town. Sorry if this sounds cruel.
It doesn't sound cruel for the people who have a form of transportation to leave and choose to stay, but I can't feel that way about the people who do want to leave, but might not have a way/means of doing so. :no:
Last night I heard Jim mention something interesting pertaining to our "I" storms. He said IF Isaac is retired next year, it will be the last male "I" storm from the original list of male "I" storms when they began giving hurricanes common human names. :o
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Hernando, MS is now reporting Windy with Rain courtesy of the outermost bands of Isaac.
I'm about 3 miles North of Hernando, and all I am seeing is some sprinkles with very gusty winds.
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Jim Cantore doing what Jim Cantore does best! Is there no reason why I don't admire this man? :happy:
Jim Cantore Demonstrates The Power of Isaac's Wind (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2WOx0eUTYI#ws)
Jim Doing Push Ups in Hurricane Isaac! :P :lol:
Jim Cantore Getting A Quick Work Out In During Hurricane Isaac (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iqEacUOK1M#ws)
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The remnants of Isaac are still going and in fact producing some severe weather/possibly isolated tornadoes. In fact, last night I recieved about 0.7" of rain from a shower/band in association with Isaac's remnants.
Low level flow on the southeast quadrant of the low is still exceeding 30 knots, further aiding in a small tornado/wind potential through at least the overnight hours in parts of KY, TN, northern AL, and areas nearby.
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It looks like the remnants of Isaac are finally opening up from a closed circulation into just a normal wave of low pressure. It certainly has caused a lot of rain and severe weather for the past several days.
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The remnant low pressure that was once Isaac drifted back southward and is now over the northern Gulf. It has a 40% chance of redevelopment.
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The remnant low pressure that was once Isaac drifted back southward and is now over the northern Gulf. It has a 40% chance of redevelopment.
NHC has already determined that this new low pressure system that broke off from the remnants of Isaac will not be relabeled the same name. It has to be the exact remnant to get the same name back. The main low with Isaac stayed north, while this one developed and went southward. See NHC's Facebook page for a full explanation. Thus, if anything forms, do not post it here as it's going to be considered a new system.
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Fall River, MA (http://www.heraldnews.com/news/x1402239057/Flash-floods-wreak-havoc-in-Fall-River) ended up getting 2-4" of Rain from the remnants of Issac
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For those who are interested, here is NWS New Orleans' preliminary post-storm report on Issac.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LIX/PSHLIX (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LIX/PSHLIX)