Tropical Storm Harvey

[toxictwister00]

NHC is usually slow updating on the site, but it is official.

[toxictwister00]

Here we go!

[Eric]

Looks like we'll get another named storm, which will make it the first time every storm up to and including "H" hasn't developed into a hurricane.

[toxictwister00]

As of the 2pm advisory, we have Tropical Storm Harvey.

[toxictwister00]

It may be just me, but I'm pretty sure this is NOT a 40mph storm as the NHC is advertising. It looks much stronger than that, in fact there's a ball of convection firing around the center.

[phw115wvwx]

It may be just me, but I'm pretty sure this is NOT a 40mph storm as the NHC is advertising. It looks much stronger than that, in fact there's a ball of convection firing around the center.

It's because you're quoting outdated information.   Harvey now has winds at 45 mph according to the 5 PM advisory.

[toxictwister00]

It may be just me, but I'm pretty sure this is NOT a 40mph storm as the NHC is advertising. It looks much stronger than that, in fact there's a ball of convection firing around the center.

It's because you're quoting outdated information.   Harvey now has winds at 45 mph according to the 5 PM advisory.

I don't think it's that weak either.  I'm thinking it'll get up to between 55 - 65mph right now. NHC highlighted a 13% chance at hurricane strength.

[phw115wvwx]

Tropical Storm Harvey is up to 50 mph as of the 8 PM advisory.

[Trevor]

*** TROPICAL STORM HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND PRIOR TO LANDFALL TOMORROW IN BELIZE IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. ***

[toxictwister00]

*** TROPICAL STORM HARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND PRIOR TO LANDFALL TOMORROW IN BELIZE IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. ***

It's now up to 60mph, I knew I shouldn't have gotten conservative in my prediction of a Cat. 1 hurricane in my previous post.  I'm thinking 75 - 85mph at the max if rapid intensification does indeed occur overnight.

This also means we'll only reach a streak of 7 consecutive tropical storms w/o a hurricane.

New track w/ "Hurricane" added right before landfall near Belize.

[Eric]

I think Harvey developing into a hurricane is going to be a very touch-and-go thing, depending on exactly how close it gets to the coast and when it makes landfall.  Right now, I think it's an even 50-50 bet.  But, since I don't like even 50-50 bets, I'll make it 49-51 in favor of remaining a tropical storm, albeit a potentially maximum-strength tropical storm.

[phw115wvwx]

Harvey only reached 60 mph, and it just made landfall near a place called Dangriga Town on the coast of Belize.  It will not make it to a hurricane now as it heads westward into southern Mexico.

[Eric]

Harvey only reached 60 mph, and it just made landfall near a place called Dangriga Town on the coast of Belize.  It will not make it to a hurricane now as it heads westward into southern Mexico.

That's what I thought.  I could tell there just wasn't enough time to organize as much as it needed to in order to become a hurricane.  Even the NHC downgraded its forecast before I went to bed last night: the forecast had it with max winds up to 70 mph, and the bulletin said there was a "1 in 3" chance of Harvey getting upgraded to a hurricane.  As we saw, it didn't even get as far as this downgraded bulletin expected.

There just wasn't enough time, and there just wasn't enough space.  Even though the center of circulation was still offshore (although only barely), the storm itself was already interacting with land.