Hurricane Richard

[Mike M]

Just formed in the Atlantic.

...New tropical depression forms in the northwestern Caribbean
Sea...

 

 
summary of 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...17.5n 81.1w
about 125 mi...200 km S of Grand Cayman
about 220 mi...355 km NE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on nic/Hon border
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/hr
present movement...E or 100 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches

 

 
watches and warnings
--------------------
interests in the northwest Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this depression.

 

 
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 17.5 north...longitude 81.1 west.
The depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph...4 km/hr.  A
turn toward the south...followed by a turn toward the west...is
expected over the next 48 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 35 mph...55
km/hr...with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected
on Thursday...but the depression could become a tropical storm in
the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

 

 
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
the depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches over Jamaica...with possible isolated amounts of
15 inches in areas of higher terrain.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the Cayman
Islands.

 

 
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 am EDT.

 
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch

 


      

[phw115wvwx]

If Tropical Depression #19 is able to intensify in the western Caribbean, it'll be given the name of Richard.  It might be worth pointing out that there's only five names remaining on the 2010 list right now.  This depression doesn't appear to be a threat to the United States at this time, but Central America could be seeing a lot more rain soon.

[Eric]

If Tropical Depression #19 is able to intensify in the western Caribbean, it'll be given the name of Richard.  It might be worth pointing out that there's only five names remaining on the 2010 list right now.  This depression doesn't appear to be a threat to the United States at this time, but Central America could be seeing a lot more rain soon.

I doubt this year is going to be like 2005 when the Greek alphabet had to be used, but certainly any season that makes it to "R," or even close, is quite a busy one!  And it's amazing how quiet the start of the season was, considering that all of the forecasts were for a very busy season.  Even I started to have my doubts!  I began thinking that the only way the season could be considered "above average" would be a huge explosion of storms later on... and that's just what happened!

[jtmal0723]

We now have Richard! Florida and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico needs to keep an eye on this one...

Code: [Select]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL192010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

...THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 80.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RICHARD.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST...AND WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND RICHARD
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND. 

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[phw115wvwx]

It appears that NHC is being more aggressive with the intensification forecast for Richard now.  I see it could try to become a hurricane while in the western Caribbean.  The track forecast is also shifting a little, too.

[phw115wvwx]

Richard has just been upgraded to a hurricane, which makes it the 10th hurricane of the Atlantic season.  Winds are now at 85 mph.  It's expected to make landfall around Belize and cross through the Yucatan Peninsula.  However, it's expected that the wind shear will be too much for it once it comes back out into the Gulf of Mexico, and it'll likely become extratropical.