Hurricane Maria

[gt1racerlHDl]

as of 5pm AST

Location: 11.8°N 37.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

[Mr. Rainman]

Yikes. Still a little too far out, but it looks like the United States will want to watch this one. Not sure if it's gonna be a Gulf or East Coast threat, though.

[toxictwister00]

Biggest threat area will be the FL panhandle to the Carolinas. It's amazing how the GFS and Euro models are worlds apart on TD 14 and the disturbance in the GOM. Euro shows both making US landfalls, but the GFS has been recurving OTS with TD 14. I don't buy that, I think the Euro model's solution is more likely. Maybe we should ask Ms. LaRosa where she thinks she's goin'. 

[gt1racerlHDl]

I think TD14 will avoid the islands all together, Florida to New England needs to keep an eye on this concerning area.

[toxictwister00]

Slightly further north days 4 to 5



I see four possible scenarios with this right now:
1. It could travel the NHC track and head somewhere on the SE coast.
2. Same as above, but moves fast enough to turn north quicker sending it OTS.
3. Could hit E. Coast of FL.
4. Travel south and west enough to head into the GOM.

[toxictwister00]

My Projected Path for TD 14 - I believe FL is the highest threat for a landfall atm. Of course it's subject to change that's why the SE coast is highlighted in red.

Also, my placement of TD 14 is an estimate. I'll have to find a blank map w/ coordinates because that would help.

[toxictwister00]

We have Maria LaRosa uh just Maria. 



Notice they are no longer forecasting a hurricane.

[toxictwister00]

My forecast path for today

[phw115wvwx]

The models aren't very aggressive with this one as there's a fair amount of shear ahead.  NHC never shows it as a hurricane in the 5-day forecast.  It's moving pretty fast for a tropical storm, so we may have to watch by next week if it will do anything to the East Coast.

[WeatherWitness]

Does anyone know the longest-lasting tropical storm that actually never became a hurricane? This one seems like it could fit that criteria, as it looks to be alive for several days but not form into anything major.

[phw115wvwx]

Does anyone know the longest-lasting tropical storm that actually never became a hurricane? This one seems like it could fit that criteria, as it looks to be alive for several days but not form into anything major.

I don't know an official answer to that question, but Allison from 2001 would be a good candidate as it lasted 15 days from formation to dissipation without becoming a hurricane.

Maria is still a minimum tropical storm with winds of 40 mph, but its forecast track and anticipated gradual intensification should be watched over the next few days.

[TWCToday]

Maria is going to have a tough time ahead

[gt1racerlHDl]

NHC predicting Cat 2 @ 110mph on day 5, if the trend continues then New England will just have the same effects Katia gave (Rip Currents, High Surf, Clouds.)

[WeatherWitness]

Maria is going to have a tough time ahead

Looks like you are correct, Martin. The intensity levels keep changing for this storm. Now Maria is forecasted to become no more than a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph as we head into Thursday of next week.

Current winds are 40 mph as of the 11 AM EDT advisory, and Maria may even weaken to a TD before slightly strengthening again on Monday morning.

[toxictwister00]

My thoughts on Tropical Storm Maria
http://theweathercenter.weebly.com/maria---discussion.html