Hurricane Otto

[jtmal0723]

We now have subtropical depression 17 in the Atlantic, which may become Otto sometime today. Based on the current track, it doesn't look like a major threat to any land.

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...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 67.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. 

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043 SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 

[WeatherWitness]

This subtropical depression has now been named "Otto" as of 5 PM EDT. However, the storm is still considered SUBtropical. Will it ever be a "real" tropical system or subtropical the entire time?

I also don't think I've seen a storm in the Atlantic that has traveled directly northeast before without starting and making a curve first.

[Zach]

This subtropical depression has now been named "Otto" as of 5 PM EDT. However, the storm is still considered SUBtropical. Will it ever be a "real" tropical system or subtropical the entire time?

I also don't think I've seen a storm in the Atlantic that has traveled directly northeast before without starting and making a curve first.

It will stay subtropical as some of the classifications of tropical are missing. Its kinda a hybrid of extra-tropical and tropical

[WeatherWitness]

This subtropical depression has now been named "Otto" as of 5 PM EDT. However, the storm is still considered SUBtropical. Will it ever be a "real" tropical system or subtropical the entire time?

I also don't think I've seen a storm in the Atlantic that has traveled directly northeast before without starting and making a curve first.

It will stay subtropical as some of the classifications of tropical are missing. Its kinda a hybrid of extra-tropical and tropical

It's weird how a SUBtropical system can be named, since it doesn't meet all requirements of being "fully" tropical. I do know what subtropical/extratropical means after Patrick's wonderful explanation in another hurricane thread. I wonder what "requirements/characteristics" of being fully tropical Otto is missing?

[phw115wvwx]

It's weird how a SUBtropical system can be named, since it doesn't meet all requirements of being "fully" tropical. I do know what subtropical/extratropical means after Patrick's wonderful explanation in another hurricane thread. I wonder what "requirements/characteristics" of being fully tropical Otto is missing?

Since storms can move from one phase to another, they can temporarily have characteristics of multiple phases.  Zach's definition was close, but one element was missing:  A subtropical storm has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones, but it cannot have any fronts!  Otto was initially completely extratropical as it was cold-core and asymmetric with fronts and an upper-level trough.  Now, it has some tropical characteristics by being more warm-core and symmetric as the fronts are gone, but Otto is a subtropical storm as the upper-level trough is still near the surface low.  However, the rising temperatures above the storm should help remove the trough and replace it with a ridge, which will allow Otto to complete its tropical transition, the process of going from extratropical to tropical.  The winds are now up to 65 mph as of 11 PM EDT, which is another factor in this transition as explained in the next paragraph.

NHC agreed to recognize and name these storms in 1972, but they weren't fully integrated into our tropical naming convention until 2002.  Subtropical storms can be just as devastating and deadly as a tropical storm, which is why meteorologists agreed to recognize them.  Not all subtropical storms become fully tropical, but some do complete the transition successfully.  I should also point that only subtropical depressions and subtropical storms exist.  Hurricanes are always fully tropical, so there's no such thing as a subtropical hurricane!  Thus, if Otto reaches hurricane-force winds, it'll automatically jump to a fully tropical cyclone as a hurricane.

[TWCToday]

  Subtropical storms can be just as devastating and deadly as a tropical storm, which is why meteorologists agreed to recognize them.

By that logic I believe the NHC should classify extra-tropical systems. Yes their classification is screwy in meteorology terms but they can cause huge amounts of damage. Names give these systems recognition in the public eye. That is sad that it takes a name to give a storm attention but if it helps get people to safety then it is worth it.

With the noreaster last year in my area we had tropical storm force winds and hurricane force gusts for 3 1/2 days. People didn't pay any attention to it. The flooding turned out to be equivalent to a hurricane.

[phw115wvwx]

By that logic I believe the NHC should classify extra-tropical systems. Yes their classification is screwy in meteorology terms but they can cause huge amounts of damage. Names give these systems recognition in the public eye. That is sad that it takes a name to give a storm attention but if it helps get people to safety then it is worth it.

NHC is only responsible for anything tropical in nature, so the rest is up to the other parts of the NWS.  Extratropical storms would be much harder as there are far more of those than tropical and subtropical storms.  We'd need a pressure threshold so that not every little storm is named.  I just wish people would listen and obey to watches and warnings for any storm.  Then, there wouldn't be an issue.

[TWCToday]

By that logic I believe the NHC should classify extra-tropical systems. Yes their classification is screwy in meteorology terms but they can cause huge amounts of damage. Names give these systems recognition in the public eye. That is sad that it takes a name to give a storm attention but if it helps get people to safety then it is worth it.

NHC is only responsible for anything tropical in nature, so the rest is up to the other parts of the NWS.  Extratropical storms would be much harder as there are far more of those than tropical and subtropical storms.  We'd need a pressure threshold so that not every little storm is named.  I just wish people would listen and obey to watches and warnings for any storm.  Then, there wouldn't be an issue.

Really is a shame

[phw115wvwx]

Otto has completed tropical transition and is now a full tropical storm with winds of 60 mph.  The warm core it developed has finally made it all the way to the top of the cyclone, which removed the upper-level trough above it.  This storm will pose no threat to land as it's predicted to head eastward towards the open Atlantic.

[Mr. Rainman]

Can you say hurricane? Otto has just now been upgraded to hurricane status, making it the eighth hurricane of the season. Winds are 75 mph, and the system is tearing ENE at 17 mph.

Otto has brought the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season into one of the Top 10 busiest in recorded history. 2010 sits at 10th, tied with 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2007.

[Eric]

Can you say hurricane? Otto has just now been upgraded to hurricane status, making it the eighth hurricane of the season. Winds are 75 mph, and the system is tearing ENE at 17 mph.

Otto has brought the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season into one of the Top 10 busiest in recorded history. 2010 sits at 10th, tied with 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2007.

I remember Nana in 1990... John Hope was explaining that this was the first time since the naming conventions began in 1950 that a storm received an "N" name.  Not an impressive storm meteorologically, but it certainly made 1990 an important year... fortunately, not for any serious landfalling storms!

[phw115wvwx]

Hurricane Otto won't stay tropical for long as it heads for the open Atlantic.  After all the time it spent to undergo tropical transition, it'll start extratropical transition in a few days.

[Mike M]

Thus, if Otto reaches hurricane-force winds, it'll automatically jump to a fully tropical cyclone as a hurricane.

Are you sure? I've read on other websites that subtropical cyclones that reach hurricane force are still referred to as "subtropical storms."

[Eric]

Thus, if Otto reaches hurricane-force winds, it'll automatically jump to a fully tropical cyclone as a hurricane.

Are you sure? I've read on other websites that subtropical cyclones that reach hurricane force are still referred to as "subtropical storms."

Though there's something of a grey area, if a subtropical storm reaches hurricane force, it is immediately classified as a tropical cyclone of hurricane force.  The National Hurricane Center does not have a category "sub-tropical hurricane," as it considers all hurricanes to be tropical cyclones.

That said, there have been several storms which probably would fit a "sub-tropical hurricane" status... I can think of several Nor'Easters I've lived through that could fit the bill.  However, they're not classified as such.  My opinion is simple: if it has winds of at least 74 mph and an eye, it should be classified as a hurricane one way or the other... and who cares what month it is?!

[phw115wvwx]

The main issue is that we're trying to classify everything into discrete boxes to understand them better, but storms and various atmospheric phenomena are all on a continuous spectrum.  As a result, we encounter all these discrepancies and gray areas that aren't explained or handled well.

Anyway, to get back on topic here, Otto is still a hurricane with winds of 80 mph.  I have a feeling it has reached its peak and will slowly weaken and turn extratropical soon.