Predictions for 2010 Atlantic hurricane season retirements

[IntelliStar]

Well, it has been a while since I posted here, however, I think now is the time to make our predictions on what names will be retired.

Here are my predictions:
     

• Alex - 60% - caused $1.885 billion in damage, however, there is a possiblity that it may go the way of Dolly in 2008.
• Bonnie - 1% - Minimal damage, although I think Bonnie should have been retired after the 1998 season as Bonnie in 1998 caused about $1 billion (in 1998 USD) in damage.
• Colin - 1% - Minimal damage
• Danielle - 0% - Pretty much a fishspinner.
• Earl - 10% - Did some damage but not extreme damage.
• Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
• Gaston - 0% - Fishspinner.
• Hermine - 15% - Damage moderate but not too severe.
• Igor - 50% - While damage was not extremely severe, it was one of the worst hurricanes to affect Newfoundland in many years, and Canada might request its retirement to the WMO as they did for Juan in 2003.
• Julia - <1% - Very minimal damage.
• Karl - 90% - Caused $5.6 billion in damage.
• Matthew - 40% - Casued a severe mudslide in Oxaca, although overall damage is not known at this time.
• Nicole - 15% - Damage moderate but not severe.
• Otto - 14% - Damage not extreme.
• Paula - 25% (preliminary) - Damage unknown at this time.

Does anyone have their own guesses?

[WeatherWitness]

To be honest, I don't think ANY of the storm names from this year will be retired. We had a lot of "fish" storms. The only one that may have a slight chance is Alex, and that really never hit the US (it made direct landfall in Mexico).

[IntelliStar]

To be honest, I don't think ANY of the storm names from this year will be retired. We had a lot of "fish" storms. The only one that may have a slight chance is Alex, and that really never hit the US (it made direct landfall in Mexico).

And what makes you think Karl will not be retired considering it caused $5.6 billion in damage?

Also, hurricanes do not have to affect the U.S. to be retired.  As long as a country submits a name for retirement to the WMO, it will be retired.  The WMO has never turned down any request.

[Eric]

The only one that may have a slight chance is Alex, and that really never hit the US (it made direct landfall in Mexico).

A storm doesn't have to affect the United States in order for it to be retired.  Any country affected by a tropical cyclone can submit a name to be retired.

[IntelliStar]

The only one that may have a slight chance is Alex, and that really never hit the US (it made direct landfall in Mexico).

A storm doesn't have to affect the United States in order for it to be retired.  Any country affected by a tropical cyclone can submit a name to be retired.

Exactly.  The NHC doesn't retire names, the WMO does.  The NHC, however, can submit a name to the WMO if they feel a name should be retired.

In truth, the United States actually has fairly high retirement standards compared to other countries.  For example, Hurricane Bonnie in 1998 (from my first example) caused about $1 billion in damage yet was not retired.  Also, 2008's Hurricane Dolly caused about $1.3 billion in damage (mostly in the U.S.) and was not retired.  Canada, on the other hand has lower retirement standards as they are not affected as often as the United States.  Hurricane Juan caused about $200 million (in 2003 USD) in damage, but Canada requested its retirement.  I think it is quite possible that Canada may do the same for Igor.

[TWCToday]

Perhaps Karl but I highly doubt any other storm will have its name removed

[Mike M]

I wouldn't count on any of the storms being retired this year. If anything, Karl and Paula may have the greatest chance of retirement. We still have about a good six months though before we hear an official word from the NHC.

[IntelliStar]

BTW, if I would choose preplacement names for the three most likely names to be retired (Alex, Igor, and Karl), here is what I would choose:

• Replace Alex with either Andros or Alfredo
• Replace Igor with Irving
• Replace Karl with Kirby

Does anyone have their own ideas for new names?

[Charismatic Applesauce]

I think Alex, Earl, Igor, and Karl will be retired. They did cause some damage, but not in the US.

[phw115wvwx]

This is a pretty lengthy bump, but I finally found the answer to which names have been retired even though it was decided back in March.  The names of Igor and Tomas from the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season have been retired.  They will be replaced by Ian and Tobias in 2016.  Here's a NOAA article with more information:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110316_hurricanenames.html

It just shows that you can't predict the retirements easily.

[Mike M]

Honestly I didn't think these storms would be notable enough for retirement. Quite surprising if you ask me.

[toxictwister00]

Honestly I didn't think these storms would be notable enough for retirement. Quite surprising if you ask me.

Not notable to the US, but notable for the Caribbean and Bermuda. A lot of damage and deaths were reported in those areas from them.