I have family in Orlando. The statements of gloom and doom made by him and the NHC made me worry a lot about them and I worry a lot anyway and it just preyed on me. I did not turn out to be that bad in Orlando, in all honesty. In fact, none of my family there even lost power. However, yes of course that flooding by the storm surge in St. Augustine and other locations along the immediate coast was very bad. You're are correct, the highest percentage of hurricane injuries and fatalities comes from the waters, not from the winds. So, I have clarified my statement from my post yesterday. How bad is it now? Is it lashing Georgia and South Carolina as expected?
Also, my concept of Bryan Norcross is that he speaks mainly for south Florida and his former audience in that portion of the state, since he's famous for talking on the telephone with viewers during Hurricane Andrew's landfall 24 years ago.
I understand, some affects of Matthew didn't pan out exactly as NHC had anticipated for Central FL (Orlando area) and part of that is because Matthew didn't make the brief landfall in that portion of FL as the models were suggesting 36-48 hrs prior. In fact the models started shifting the track of Matthew's eye further east offshore (which did happen) Thursday afternoon which ultimately meant lesser impacts further inland for Orlando.
I've mainly been watching local media and as far as flooding goes it was very bad in places like Brunswick, Savannah, Tybee Island, etc. in GA during the height of the storm yesterday, but it seems like the flooding issue is resolving quickly since the winds shifted offshore (W winds) and is pushing a lot of the storm surge back out into the Atlantic after Matthew moved NE towards Charleston, SC. As far as wind damage (particularly on the beaches in these areas) I don't know how bad it was because as recent as this morning local media wasn't allowed to go out there and do reports because the police was barricading the roads.
I know the beach erosion in Jacksonville Beach was severe, there was lot of beach homes that looked like they were teetering on the edge of a cliff. I worry from what I saw this morning some of those houses may partially collapse because that's just how sharp the divide is in terms of where the beach erosion begins and ends.
Regarding Bryan Norcross, if he was hyping S. FL to have a greater impact from Matthew than the central and northern areas of FL then I completely agree with you he definitely blew it because that was never expected to be the case. I wouldn't know what he's been saying anyway since I don't have cable anymore. I was mainly talking about the whole news media in general. I think (and still think)it was a valid move to hype the concerns with Matthew specifically for those who lived on the immediate coastlines of FL/GA/SC. We have to remember Matthew was the first major hurricane to affect the US since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005! That was reason alone to think people may be complacent and not take a Cat. 3/4 hurricane serious enough. However, our 11 year drought on a land falling major hurricane (Cat. 3 or higher) continues.
As tragic as the deaths and devastation is in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. I think the after effects of Matthew's eye going over SW Haiti and extreme eastern Cuba helped us more than I (and others) initially thought. People may have forgotten or didn't know but Matthew was a Cat. 5 (160 mph) at his peak for a short time last Friday (Sept. 30th) before it struck the SW tip of Haiti earlier this week. If Matthew had of managed to skirt perfectly between the open waters of Eastern Cuba and Western Haiti, there is no doubt in my mind Matthew would have been a Cat. 5 again while it was barely riding offshore the FL coast. The fact that it weakened to a Cat. 2 once it left Cuba and ramped back up to a Cat. 4 once it was in the Bahamas proves that so the actual outcome turned out to be a mixed blessing in disguise for the US.
