1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEANSEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVINGWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ASURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OFORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FORGRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVECOULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONSOF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTORICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARDOVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESSAND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCECONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THEDOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THENEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESSORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THEWAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICANREPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAYOR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FORSLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ITMOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
000ABNT20 KNHC 231150TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRALCARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTORICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVEFOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD ORWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEAOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OFJAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ISA MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
000ABNT20 KNHC 240536TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TOPRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OFHISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENTWATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVELCIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATEDSHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TOTHE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FORSOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ORWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANAIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELYSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERNLEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICALWAVE.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER BERG
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROADAREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURASAND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACEPRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN ANINCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOMEA TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWERACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...ANDSURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELYTO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATANPENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TOINVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICALCYCLONE HAS FORMED. $$FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOWPRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRANDCAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TODETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ATROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY ORSATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THISSYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECASTTO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATANPENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERNCARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THISSYSTEM.
000WTNT31 KNHC 252159TCPAT1BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THEWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.5N 83.5WABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICOABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HRPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HRMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THEEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TOCANCUN.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TOCANCUNA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICALDEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSIONWILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION ISEXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTWITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERNGUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUSAREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ANDMUDSLIDES.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.$$FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
000WTNT21 KNHC 252158TCMAT1TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0120102200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THEEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TOCANCUN.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TOCANCUNA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200ZAT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.9WFORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7WMAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5WMAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLANDMAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W...INLANDMAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5WMAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NMON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAYOUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5WMAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5WMAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 83.5WNEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z$$FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
Just imagine if this depression was forming an eye right now, this would look scary.
