TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on June 21, 2010, 05:03:36 PM
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1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
(http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/2640/3czt5.gif)
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NHC has just upgraded this invest up to a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Were on the verge of Code Red with this thing! :D
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif)
1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Down to Code Yellow, but maybe only temporarily (pic above is updated).
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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You were right about the temporary part! Back up!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
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40%
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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60%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
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Trying to finally pull together!
-
70%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
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80%
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
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I wouldn't be surprised for us to see Alex by 8pm or 2am tonight. RECON is already finding tropical storm force winds at the surface.
Estimated Surface Wind: From 160° at 35 knots (From the SSE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Remarks Section...
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1 (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_anis.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1)
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This thing is really getting it's act together, I don't understand why they are stalling on naming this a depression at least.
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Update: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html)
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93L has become Tropical Depression One!
(http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5061/215913w5nlsm.th.gif) (http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5061/215913w5nlsm.gif)
000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 252158
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.9W
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 83.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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Just imagine if this depression was forming an eye right now, this would look scary.
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8.GIF)
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Just imagine if this depression was forming an eye right now, this would look scary.
Eek.
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Say hello to Tropical Storm Alex! :wave:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 260847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 84.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER OF ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0110W5_NL+gif/084714W5_NL_sm.gif)
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It will be interesting to see what Alex does in the Gulf of Mexico. I had not had time to watch TWC in the last few days and on Thursday I had a visit with the local National Weather Service and he said that models had a hurricane coming in next week! I was surprised hearing that. However, with the track it is going (if it does go straight down the middle), I think that the chances of Alex becoming a hurricane are slim, but it could happen with those warm tropical waters.
Definitely going to be an interesting if this affects the oil spill.
-
Well, Alex does not look like it will have much "water space" to intensify into a hurricane (or anything greater than a Cat 1). :thinking: Also, will this affect the oil spill, because according to the projected path above, it looks like Alex will take a turn to affect Mexico and southern Texas. :unsure: Maybe it could stir up some trouble, though...IDK...projected paths always change. :dunno:
-
My Thought is Alex will become stationary by next advisory and start to move North.
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Well, it looks like the U.S. will be spared from the worst of Alex. I doubt it'll even reach hurricane strength because it's not even very well organized yet; and all land it's going to cross will only continue to hinder its organization. (Of course, watch it contradict everything I said...lol. :bleh:)
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Well, TS Alex is certainly taking a turn for the [best or worst]...your call. According to NOAA's and TWC's projected paths (Tavores' map above has been updating automatically), Alex may not even hit the US at all (or if it does, it will be Brownsville, TX). :blink: I guess this won't be the storm to "test" the oil spill. :thinking:
-
Definitely good news it is not headed to the US. We do not need anything or anyone messing with that oil spill other than BP!
The water is really warm there, and it does look like it might slow down a little, giving it some more time to develop. We will have to see what he decides to do after he gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
-
Hmm, the track has now been pushed a little further north now. :thinking: I still don't know if this will have any affect on the oil spill. :no: But according to these projected paths, Alex will reach hurricane strength by Tuesday morning-afternoon.
-
It looks like Alex will be hitting eastern Mexico or southern Texas around Thursday morning, and it'll likely be a Category 1 hurricane according to NHC at landfall.
-
According to TWC's map (which has data provided by the NHC), Alex may become a Cat. 2 hurricane before hitting land! :o This storm is certainly taking a more northern track than was predicted yesterday. :yes:
(http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/3926/strm1strike720x486.jpg)
But I guess we should remember that deviations in track and/or intensity from current projections could result in significant differences from the information on this graphic. :P
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Alex's winds are up to 60 mph as of 11 AM EDT, and a hurricane watch has been issued for the coastline between La Cruz, Mexico and Baffin Bay, TX. No changes were noted at the 2 PM EDT intermediate advisory. Alex is only moving at 5 mph, so it's allowing more time to strengthen over the very warm Gulf waters. NHC has bumped up their 48-hour forecast to 100 mph winds. I'm now starting to get worried.
-
Due to Texas getting most likely hit directly i decided to make this
WeatherScan with Hurricane Watch in South Texas: Eyes on Alex part 1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLmRQSBkZlM#)
i will make more videos of this area when Alex is close approaching.
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Due to Texas getting most likely hit directly i decided to make this
i will make more videos of this area when Alex is close approaching.
Very cool! I did this the past year or so when we had land falling systems. If by chance can you make the 8th reporting obs the same as the CC and provide me the ID?
Models continue to show a bit more of a north trend with the track.
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Due to Texas getting most likely hit directly i decided to make this
i will make more videos of this area when Alex is close approaching.
Very cool! I did this the past year or so when we had land falling systems. If by chance can you make the 8th reporting obs the same as the CC and provide me the ID?
Models continue to show a bit more of a north trend with the track.
ID: gt1racer47 and 8th CC changed to Brownsville
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I watched TWC a couple days ago and said it was not likely to develop into anything. :rofl2:
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Winds are now up to 65 mph as of 11 PM EDT, and the central pressure has dropped to 985 mb. Alex may become a hurricane in a matter of hours from now. The hurricane watch that was issued earlier today has been upgraded to a hurricane warning for the same locations.
-
Here are some maps of the Hurricane Warnings/TS warnings in effect for northern Mexico and southern Texas (easily accessible here...you don't have to go to weather.com to see them :P).
(http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/3360/strm1hurraw720x486.jpg)
(http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/4400/strm1tropw720x486.jpg)
I wish TWC would update the Alex storm track, though...that info is still from 7 PM CDT. :(
-
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif)
From the latest recon its just about at Hurricane strength. I imagine tomorrow morning or at 11am it will be
-
Updated Video
Urgent Update: Brownsville, TX under *Hurricane Warning* for Alex (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35uHCgxh0Hc#)
Notice the Radar loops at the bottom right :D
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Geez, the red track from Martin's post takes Alex right through the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. :blink: It's hard to tell what the storm is going to do...the projected paths sure keep changing in both direction and intensity at landfall. :wacko:
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I expect by the next NHC update we see Hurricane Alex
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Yeah. :thinking: Is there something hindering the strengthening of Alex? :dunno: I thought it was going to strengthen a lot faster and become stronger, but now it's already out over the open waters. :huh:
EDIT
To prove my point, look at TWC's newly-updated projected path map. Alex is not expected to have winds above 85 mph now, and hurricane status is expected tomorrow morning, not tonight. :thinking: I guess the more southerly track that this storm is taking is responsible for the lack in strength. :unsure:
(http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7572/projpathnew.jpg)
Map courtesy of The Weather Channel
I guess this should be good news for those residents in southern Texas and northern Mexico, though. :D
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Yeah. :thinking: Is there something hindering the strengthening of Alex? :dunno: I thought it was going to strengthen a lot faster and become stronger, but now it's already out over the open waters. :huh:
There is quite a bit of dry air wrapped in the system
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I don't think Alex will be that bad. If anything, the US will barely be affected by this.
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NHC states on TWC that Alex is already a hurricane but they are just waiting for data from Aircraft Recon to confirm.
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Confirmed recon found winds @ 65 knots...conclusive for Hurricane Alex @ 75 mph next update!
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I don't think Alex will be that bad. If anything, the US will barely be affected by this.
I wouldn't say that. There's still more time to go before it reaches the coast, so things could change. There's a reason they have Hurricane Warnings issued for that area of Texas - the possibility is obviously there. :yes:
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I don't think Alex will be that bad. If anything, the US will barely be affected by this.
I wouldn't say that. There's still more time to go before it reaches the coast, so things could change. There's a reason they have Hurricane Warnings issued for that area of Texas - the possibility is obviously there. :yes:
Yeah, according to Chris, Jim, and Dr. Knabb on WC tonight, because of Alex's enormous size, flooding and even high wind impacts will certainly be something that south Texas will be experiencing. :yes: In fact, I think Jim said that some impacts in some places could be worse than Dolly. :blink:
BTW, is Stephaine in Brownsville yet? :dunno: I thought she said she was going there yesterday...maybe she will be there tomorrow. :thinking:
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Hello Hurricane Alex
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NHC finally confirmed that Alex is indeed a hurricane just now.
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NHC finally confirmed that Alex is indeed a hurricane just now.
I beat you :P
Anyways....
...ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SINCE 1995...
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So Alex is now a hurricane...and first June Atlantic hurricane since 1995. :blink: Wow, and June is almost over too. :o I guess it formed at the right time. :P
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NHC finally confirmed that Alex is indeed a hurricane just now.
I beat you :P
Anyways....
...ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SINCE 1995...
Actually technically I beat you! I told you an hour ago!
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Alex's forecast track has been shifted southward by NHC at the 11 PM EDT advisory. Now, it looks like it won't make landfall directly over southern TX. There will still be impacts felt in TX due to the size of this hurricane, but the worst of it is going to be over eastern Mexico when it makes landfall Wednesday evening.
2 AM EDT update: Winds are up to 80 mph, and the pressure is down to 972 mb.
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ALEX HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING BASED ON
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A SMALL EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 0842Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
961 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 82 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A RELIABLE SURFACE
WIND OF 62 KT AND A RAIN-CONTAMINATED PEAK WIND OF 71 KT. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WAS T4.5/77 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALEX HAS WOBBLED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND EVEN
BRIEFLY STALLED. HOWEVER...TRENDING THROUGH THE SATELLITE AND RECON
FIXES YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 290/06. UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT
00Z INDICATED MODEST 10-30 METER HEIGHT RISES FROM 700-400 MB
ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...BUT ALSO TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF ALEX ACROSS TEXAS MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS
MEANS ALEX IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TO RIDGES AND IN A WEAKER STEERING
FLOW REGIME THAT NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON
BRINGING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO
STEER ALEX ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THEN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN AN
INTERESTING CHANGE IN THE 00Z AND 06 MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF
SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THIS MDOEL HAS GONE FROM
BEING THE PERSISTENT LEFT-MOST OF THE MODELS TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE MODEL SUITE...AND IT NOW HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO HWRF. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...
AND REMAINS NEAR THE EXTREME RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ALEX IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY OVER SOME
OF THE WARMEST UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...STEADY STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL SEEMS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE
RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS
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Updated Imagery: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html)
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Alex certainly wasted no time intensifying!! It isn't even making a direct hit in Louisiana, but we're still getting some pretty good effects from it, more wind than rain though. Anybody on here that's in the effected areas be safe and take care!
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Hurricane Alex is strengthening and picking up forward speed as shown in the 2 PM EDT advisory:
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
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It's amazing how something so devistating can be so beautiful at the same time. I love seeing views of hurricanes from satellites.
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Hurricane Alex is only a few hours away from making landfall over eastern Mexico, and the winds are up to 90 mph at the 5 PM EDT advisory. I hope everyone in Mexico and southern TX stays safe.
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Could Alex become a Cat. 2 before it makes landfall? :dunno: I know there is little time left, but my FOX4 weatherman was saying that such strengthening could happen.
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Could Alex become a Cat. 2 before it makes landfall? :dunno: I know there is little time left, but my FOX4 weatherman was saying that such strengthening could happen.
Your theory is Correct Andy, Alex now Cat 2 @ 100mph with 950mb pressure
Welcome back Hurricane Dolly from 2008
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Hurricane Alex has made landfall near Soto La Marina, Mexico around 10 PM EDT. This town is about 110 miles south of Brownsville, TX. The winds have peaked at 105 mph, and the pressure is 947 mb. That pressure reading is really low for a Category 2 hurricane. It could have been a scary situation if Alex had more time over water as it was really picking up intensity the last few hours.
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Hurricane Alex has made landfall near Soto La Marina, Mexico around 10 PM EDT. This town is about 110 miles south of Brownsville, TX. The winds have peaked at 105 mph, and the pressure is 947 mb. That pressure reading is really low for a Category 2 hurricane. It could have been a scary situation if Alex had more time over water as it was really picking up intensity the last few hours.
Wow!!! :o You're right, Patrick. I didn't think Alex was going to be anywhere near a Cat. 2 after yesterday's information, but it indeed was. Good thing it didn't have more time to intensify, or it could have become a major hurricane.
We're feeling the very outer rain bands here in Dallas...we got a soaker about a few hours ago, and we'll be staying wet for the next several days.
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Hurricane Alex has made landfall near Soto La Marina, Mexico around 10 PM EDT. This town is about 110 miles south of Brownsville, TX. The winds have peaked at 105 mph, and the pressure is 947 mb. That pressure reading is really low for a Category 2 hurricane. It could have been a scary situation if Alex had more time over water as it was really picking up intensity the last few hours.
A couple of the local meteorologists here were really surprised how low that pressure was. They were saying that the pressure was more like a Category 4 hurricane! Crazy.
As mentioned earlier, beautiful storm on the satellite.
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The pressure was very bizarre (NOTE: Topic title will reflect the strongest point at which a storm reached at landfall)
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Alex has now dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico. We'll see what happens with the rest of the season as the United States certainly dodged a bullet here.
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Surprised the NHC was still issuing advisories even over a day after landfall. Usually they hand it over to the HPC about 12 hours or so after landfall.
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Surprised the NHC was still issuing advisories even over a day after landfall. Usually they hand it over to the HPC about 12 hours or so after landfall.
It goes by when a system finally weakens to a tropical depression once it has made landfall. It took Alex a while to weaken all the way down to that point, so NHC couldn't give hand it over to HPC right away.