Hurricane Alex

[toxictwister00]

Say hello to Tropical Storm Alex! 

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 84.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST.  ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER OF ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxmediafan]

It will be interesting to see what Alex does in the Gulf of Mexico.  I had not had time to watch TWC in the last few days and on Thursday I had a visit with the local National Weather Service and he said that models had a hurricane coming in next week! I was surprised hearing that.  However, with the track it is going (if it does go straight down the middle), I think that the chances of Alex becoming a hurricane are slim, but it could happen with those warm tropical waters.

Definitely going to be an interesting if this affects the oil spill.

[WeatherWitness]

Well, Alex does not look like it will have much "water space" to intensify into a hurricane (or anything greater than a Cat 1). Also, will this affect the oil spill, because according to the projected path above, it looks like Alex will take a turn to affect Mexico and southern Texas. Maybe it could stir up some trouble, though...IDK...projected paths always change.

[gt1racerlHDl]

My Thought is Alex will become stationary by next advisory and start to move North.

[twcfan68]

Well, it looks like the U.S. will be spared from the worst of Alex. I doubt it'll even reach hurricane strength because it's not even very well organized yet; and all land it's going to cross will only continue to hinder its organization. (Of  course, watch it contradict everything I said...lol.  )

[WeatherWitness]

Well, TS Alex is certainly taking a turn for the [best or worst]...your call. According to NOAA's and TWC's projected paths (Tavores' map above has been updating automatically), Alex may not even hit the US at all (or if it does, it will be Brownsville, TX). I guess this won't be the storm to "test" the oil spill.

[wxmediafan]

Definitely good news it is not headed to the US.  We do not need anything or anyone messing with that oil spill other than BP!

The water is really warm there, and it does look like it might slow down a little, giving it some more time to develop.  We will have to see what he decides to do after he gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

[WeatherWitness]

Hmm, the track has now been pushed a little further north now. I still don't know if this will have any affect on the oil spill. But according to these projected paths, Alex will reach hurricane strength by Tuesday morning-afternoon.

[phw115wvwx]

It looks like Alex will be hitting eastern Mexico or southern Texas around Thursday morning, and it'll likely be a Category 1 hurricane according to NHC at landfall.

[WeatherWitness]

According to TWC's map (which has data provided by the NHC), Alex may become a Cat. 2 hurricane before hitting land! This storm is certainly taking a more northern track than was predicted yesterday.



But I guess we should remember that deviations in track and/or intensity from current projections could result in significant differences from the information on this graphic.

[phw115wvwx]

Alex's winds are up to 60 mph as of 11 AM EDT, and a hurricane watch has been issued for the coastline between La Cruz, Mexico and Baffin Bay, TX.  No changes were noted at the 2 PM EDT intermediate advisory.  Alex is only moving at 5 mph, so it's allowing more time to strengthen over the very warm Gulf waters.  NHC has bumped up their 48-hour forecast to 100 mph winds.  I'm now starting to get worried.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Due to Texas getting most likely hit directly i decided to make this

WeatherScan with Hurricane Watch in South Texas: Eyes on Alex part 1

i will make more videos of this area when Alex is close approaching.

[TWCToday]

Due to Texas getting most likely hit directly i decided to make this
i will make more videos of this area when Alex is close approaching.

Very cool! I did this the past year or so when we had land falling systems. If by chance can you make the 8th reporting obs the same as the CC and provide me the ID?

Models continue to show a bit more of a north trend with the track.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Due to Texas getting most likely hit directly i decided to make this
i will make more videos of this area when Alex is close approaching.

Very cool! I did this the past year or so when we had land falling systems. If by chance can you make the 8th reporting obs the same as the CC and provide me the ID?

Models continue to show a bit more of a north trend with the track.

ID: gt1racer47 and 8th CC changed to Brownsville

[Bryan]

I watched TWC a couple days ago and said it was not likely to develop into anything.