TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on June 13, 2010, 06:09:10 PM
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CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Looks like it's trying to get healthy.
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A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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It would be quite a feat to have a Cape Verde tropical storm forming so early in the season, but it sure looks promising from satellite so far.
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It would be quite a feat to have a Cape Verde tropical storm forming so early in the season, but it sure looks promising from satellite so far.
It sure would be, I have a good feeling when we wake up in the morning this thing will at least be a tropical depression. ;)
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Looks very well organized right here
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html)
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It would be quite a feat to have a Cape Verde tropical storm forming so early in the season, but it sure looks promising from satellite so far.
Indeed! SSTs are crazy warm out there too
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This system is probably the most promising this year as of yet (that REALLY doesn't say much! ;)), but I do see a lot of potential in the storm. I'm going to be shocked if this isn't TD One by the next update. And it also looks like several vaguely reliable models say winds will peak at (at least) 55mph...meaning we'll have Alex.
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Not as healthy today:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.
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It doesn't look as good on satellite today after showing some organization yesterday. Only the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico is where most June storms are formed, so it's really fighting the climatological odds way out in the Atlantic.
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I think it'll still make it regardless of how it's looking today. I would be really surprised if it didn't at least make it to depression status.
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According to the wording of the latest statement put out by the NHC, the storm is in a marginally conducive environment and will continue to move into more difficult environment. I'm doubtful on this storm forming into Alex.
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If we don't see much redevelopment tonight Ill throw in the towel.
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Exposed low, 20% chance. NEXT!!