TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on July 04, 2010, 01:46:57 AM
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Another day.... another invest.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010
...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl2.gif)
Sorta reminds me of Alex
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We may have Bonnie on our hands, but it's too early to tell.
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Up to 30%...
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up to 50%!
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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Wow...if this develops into something, the western Carribbean sure won't have much of a break from Alex. :blink:
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looks like if this thing keeps it's act together, it could make a Texas landfall...should be interesting.
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Looks a but more organized today.
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Now a 30-50% chance of development:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
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A TCFA has been issued
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Yeah, this was the big topic on WC tonight...NHC has raised the formation chance to 80%. Oddly enough, this looks like it will be taking the same path as Alex. :thinking: So what, is all the tropical activity for Hurricane Season 2010 going to hit Texas and Mexico?
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We should have TD2 at 11!
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Yep. TS warnings up. Looks like it should barely reach TS status before making landfall a bit north where Alex came ashore
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Wow...it sure seems like this developed into something fast. :o This is kind of another scary situation to think about what this really could evolve into if it had more water space to intensify.
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Wow...it sure seems like this developed into something fast. :o This is kind of another scary situation to think about what this really could evolve into if it had more water space to intensify.
Still poorly organized. Its barely going to reach TS status. Breezy conditions and rain mostly
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It remains at 35 mph at the 5 AM EDT advisory, and it needs to get a little more organized convection for it to become the second tropical storm of the season before making landfall near Brownsville, TX in about 12 hours.
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Tropical Depression 2 has made landfall as of 10:15 AM CDT. It will be a major flooding threat to the cities of South Texas, such as Brownsville, Laredo, and even San Antonio and Houston.
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Too bad it couldn't form into BOnnie.
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Tropical Storm Warning still in effect from Baffin Bay, TX to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. This will likely be lifted later today.
Latest advisory as of 11am EDT/10am CDT:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL CROSS THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND
WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.
WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
TODAY.
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Final NHC advisory - all warnings dropped:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
98.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.
WIND...WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
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Too bad it couldn't form into BOnnie.
Not to worry. From the looks of the GFS model its likely she will form soon