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Author Topic: Tropical Depression 2  (Read 4995 times)

Offline TWCToday

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Tropical Depression 2
« on: July 04, 2010, 01:46:57 AM »
Another day.... another invest.
Quote
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Sorta reminds me of Alex
« Last Edit: July 07, 2010, 11:07:50 PM by Martin »
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Offline gt1racerlHDl

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2010, 11:18:37 AM »
We may have Bonnie on our hands, but it's too early to tell.
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2010, 05:03:30 PM »
Up to 30%...
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Offline gt1racerlHDl

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2010, 09:34:52 PM »
up to 50%!

Quote
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2010, 09:37:13 PM by Gt1racer47HD »
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Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2010, 11:10:54 PM »
Wow...if this develops into something, the western Carribbean sure won't have much of a break from Alex. :blink:
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Offline Al

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2010, 11:44:58 PM »
looks like if this thing keeps it's act together, it could make a Texas landfall...should be interesting.
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2010, 06:46:40 PM »
Looks a but more organized today.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2010, 06:22:43 PM by Martin »
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Offline Mike M

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2010, 07:21:12 PM »
Now a 30-50% chance of development:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2010, 06:23:05 PM »
A TCFA has been issued
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2010, 08:44:04 PM »
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2010, 10:36:39 PM »
Yeah, this was the big topic on WC tonight...NHC has raised the formation chance to 80%. Oddly enough, this looks like it will be taking the same path as Alex. :thinking: So what, is all the tropical activity for Hurricane Season 2010 going to hit Texas and Mexico?
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Invest 96L
« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2010, 10:50:53 PM »
We should have TD2 at 11!
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Tropical Depression 2
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2010, 11:08:24 PM »
Yep. TS warnings up. Looks like it should barely reach TS status before making landfall a bit north where Alex came ashore
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Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Tropical Depression 2
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2010, 11:19:25 PM »
Wow...it sure seems like this developed into something fast. :o This is kind of another scary situation to think about what this really could evolve into if it had more water space to intensify.
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Offline TWCToday

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Re: Tropical Depression 2
« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2010, 11:22:08 PM »
Quote from: WeatherWitness on July 07, 2010, 11:19:25 PM
Wow...it sure seems like this developed into something fast. :o This is kind of another scary situation to think about what this really could evolve into if it had more water space to intensify.
Still poorly organized. Its barely going to reach TS status. Breezy conditions and rain mostly
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