Tropical Depression Five

[toxictwister00]

I'm surprised noone has started a thread on this since it's right in our backyard, but the disturbance near FL has a 40% chance of becoming our Danielle unless the disturbance in the Central Atlantic beats it to the punch first, but nonetheless I think this will either be our Danielle or Earl over the next couple of days. 

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area2#contents



The 18z DGEX is very aggressive with this disturbance blowing up in the GOM with a pressure of at least 980mbs! It wants to create a moderately strong Cat 1 hurricane! 

[TWCToday]

At this point I want a D storm just so we can move onto the next name

[WeatherWitness]

Tropical Depression 5 has formed! Could this be Danielle? It doesn't have much time or room to stregthen.



P.S. This thread's topic needs to be changed.

[Al]

considering that the gulf has very warm waters, and there is no shear...i do believe this can be our next named system.

guess we'll have to wait and see. 

[phw115wvwx]

I've taken care of the topic title change for you guys.   However, there is some shear expected later on for this system, so it may reach tropical storm status but not go much further before heading inland over the Southeast.

[TWCToday]

It will barely reach TS status, enough to get TWC all up in a hissy fit. I am curious what the storm does after landfall. Models have been everywhere with it

[wxmediafan]

It will barely reach TS status, enough to get TWC all up in a hissy fit. I am curious what the storm does after landfall. Models have been everywhere with it

I am waiting for it. 

Very unorganized system right now.  Like Martin said earlier, let's just get the D-storm here and move on.

They just mentioned on TWC that hurricane hunters are going in at 1PM to investigate, and if they find nothing, the depression will be downgraded by the 5PM advisory.  Interesting.

[Localonthe8s]

So so far, we've only had one 1 hurricane? And the rest of the storms are "hit-and-miss storms" where they form briefly and dissipate soon after?

[ruhgster]

Yes, either the storms are hitting land too soon or they're encountering too much shear to really develop.  We're now in La Nina which should reduce the amount of shear over the Atlantic, and that, along with warm water temps, is why NOAA still predicts an active season, but we shall see about that.

My forecast for this season: Between 3 and 50 named storms, with between 1 and 25 becoming hurricanes. 

[ruhgster]

I don't know about you, but reading this section from the latest advisory, esp 1st and last paragraph, makes me think they have no clue what the storm will do.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
87.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DEPRESSION REACHES THE
COAST.

[toxictwister00]

I think it would be amazing if this thing could pull off a Humberto, but I know it won't though. I could care less if it's a depression, storm, or hurricane. I want it to take that sharp turn right and bring us some needed rain and relief. With La Nina coming back it won't be too long before the "D" word comes back into play.

[WeatherWitness]

I think it would be amazing if this thing could pull off a Humberto, but I know it won't though. I could care less if it's a depression, storm, or hurricane. I want it to take that sharp turn right and bring us some needed rain and relief. With La Nina coming back it won't be too long before the "D" word comes back into play.

Which "D" word are you talking about.

[toxictwister00]

I think it would be amazing if this thing could pull off a Humberto, but I know it won't though. I could care less if it's a depression, storm, or hurricane. I want it to take that sharp turn right and bring us some needed rain and relief. With La Nina coming back it won't be too long before the "D" word comes back into play.

Which "D" word are you talking about.

Drought, we went through an extremely severe three year drought that ended last year because of La Nina.

[phw115wvwx]

Well, you can forget about this one becoming a tropical storm.  Once again, there was too much hype over a weak system that was entering a more sheared environment than people thought.  Tropical Depression #5 lost its surface circulation and most of its convection.  As a result, NHC issued their last advisory at 5 PM EDT.  It will simply be a rain maker for the Southeast.  I saw a map showing 15-20 kt of wind shear over the northern Gulf this afternoon, which made me realize this storm was dead.  Wind shear matters way more than sea surface temperature, folks.