Invest 05L

[gt1racerlHDl]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 60
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
NNNN

[WeatherWitness]

If TD 5 redevelops into a tropical cyclone, will it be TD 5 again or TD 6? I'm surprised that it is gaining strength again like this, though. Didn't think it could happen.

[phw115wvwx]

If TD 5 redevelops into a tropical cyclone, will it be TD 5 again or TD 6? I'm surprised that it is gaining strength again like this, though. Didn't think it could happen.

If NHC is certain that it's the same system with nothing new morphed into it, it would regenerate back to TD #5 again.  The wording of that text product indicates that they believe it's the case.  Only when systems can't be traced back directly are they assigned as new storms.

[gt1racerlHDl]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
NNNN

[Mike M]

This reminds me of a similar case with Ivan in 2004. Although that storm went off the Atlantic coast first and didn't regenerate until it reached the Gulf about a week or so after it made its first landfall in Florida. That was pretty interesting to watch.

[TWCToday]

This has little room to develop, like most of the systems we have had this year