Hurricane Central 2016

[toxictwister00]

This year's Atlantic Hurricane Season ramped into full gear officially yesterday, but you could argue it's been in full gear since the record and historic early start in January. That's the same month we had the first named storm (Alex) to eventually become the first hurricane of the season.

Of course we just had Tropical Storm Bonnie (which the NHC has re-activated updates on again as of 11am ET this morning) impact the Carolinas over the Memorial Day holiday weekend and this week.

Fortunately (and unfortunately depending on how you look at it), we may have "Colin" by this time next week impacting Florida (specifically north/central FL). The global models (GFS, Euro, Canadian) for several days have strongly hinted at this possibility.

00z European Model - Impacts FL, goes wide right/east out to sea



6z (12z not completed yet) American GFS Model - Hits Central FL, goes northeast out to sea


00z Canadian Model - Solid C. FL hit, brushes the GA/Carolinas coast afterwards)

[toxictwister00]

An update on what could become Tropical Storm Colin soon...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized.  This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Beven

Source (National Hurricane Center): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[toxictwister00]

These next few weeks are going to take us into the peak of hurricane season and tropics as of this moment aren't failing to disappoint. We have two areas of interest, not including TD Fiona.

We have Invest 99L and recently within the hour Tropical Depression 7 (which is expected to become Gaston).

Invest 99L is expected to strengthen and possibly be named Hermine.

Here's the current model(s) track for Invest 99L ("Hermine") This storm is most likely to affect the US by next week as of right now.


Forecast Intensity (various models)


Tropical Depression 7 ("Gaston")

Forecast Intensity