Hurricane Central 2015

[toxictwister00]

Were still a few weeks from the official start of hurricane season, but we already have moderate interest churning off the SE coast that could affect folks from GA to NC by this Mother's Day weekend. If it receives a name, it will be "Ana".

From the National Hurricane Center

Code: [Select]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of
Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an
upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the
northwestern Bahamas.  The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been cancelled.  However, conditions are
expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northward.  A
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday,
and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should
monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8
PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Forecaster Brennan
6z GFS (American Model)


0z ECMWF (European Model)


0z GEM (Canadian Model)


6z NAM (American Model)


0z UKMET (British Model)

[SamRichardson92]

Here's the live radar.. this should auto-update.

[toxictwister00]

18z Model Tracks


18z Intensity Forecast

[Eric]

Within the hour the NHC will start issuing updates on Subtropical Storm Ana.  It's a very early start to what's predicted to be a near-record setting quiet season.

[Lightning]

There was previously a pre-season storm named Ana back in 2003, an interesting note.

[Eric]

There was previously a pre-season storm named Ana back in 2003, an interesting note.

Interesting coincidence!

[crazybangles]

It was interesting to have a tropical storm a month before tropical storm/Hurricane season.

[toxictwister00]

Could we have a "Danny" sometime this week? I believe this is our first legit Cape Verde disturbance (Eastern Atlantic). Let's see if it can survive the trip west.

CODE ORANGE: 50% Chance of development within 2 days, 60% chance within 5 days

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave and a surface low pressure system located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are producing a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, which are beginning
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
could form by midweek as the disturbance moves westward at around 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Stewart