Hurricane Central 2014

[toxictwister00]

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with
a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of
Melbourne, Florida.  However, surface pressures are falling, and
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days.  A tropical depression is
likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward and northeastward near the
southeastern United States coast.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[toxictwister00]

Graphical changes coming to the TWO on the NHC website effective tomorrow afternoon btw...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140630_pa_FiveDayOutlookGraphic.pdf

[toxictwister00]

First Tropical Depression of the Atlantic Hurricane season has arrived.

[toxictwister00]

Deja Vu?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Lightning]

Deja Vu?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

Well, according to this, it doesn't look like we'll see Bertha anytime soon, at least not in the near future.

[toxictwister00]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

[toxictwister00]

Interest in an Eastern Atlantic tropical wave is awakening...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is located about 420 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. The associated shower activity is limited
and disorganized, and development should be slow to occur over the
next couple of days. By the middle of this week, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
gradual development over the central tropical Atlantic as the
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[esc1010]

The wave has a high (70%) chance of developing into a Depression or storm.

[toxictwister00]

Yea, we may have Tropical Storm Bertha in a few days. Models are picking up on this invest, some more aggressive than others in the long range.

[esc1010]

Agreement of at least a moderate TS (50-65 MPH winds). Some models make it a borderline Cat 1 hurricane.

[esc1010]

Double Post: Cooler waters and a hint of dry air have just destroyed the convection.

Non time-sensitive image:
Convection GONE

Water Vapor:
Lots of dry air and not much moist air

Wind Map:
Note a clear circulation but has weak winds. Also the convection has been destroyed by the dry air in image two.

Take a vote: In 36 hours what will it be? TD #3, TS Bertha

[toxictwister00]

I still could see a TD #3 out of this, but I'm not too confident in a "Bertha" right about now.

[esc1010]

BTW, I did static non updating images because I like to comeback and look at them.
EDIT: Update on images tomorrow morning... or when I get to them.
Edit2: The storm's convection has not increased but is steady.
EDIT3: This is very intresting.... http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/archive.asp?product=mpswtcke&storm_identifier=AL932014

[esc1010]

Double Post:

Code: [Select]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday.  However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[esc1010]

We got Bertha!  45 MPH Winds, 1008 MB pressure.
Official Topic: https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/tropical-storm-bertha-%282014%29/