Hurricane Central 2014

[SamRichardson92]

I know it's early but The Weather Channel Professional Services Division has already put it's forecast out so.

[WeatherWitness]

Wow!   Clearly TWC and CSU are predicting for El Nino to be in place, making this a relatively inactive hurricane season.  (Now watch both of them blow it the other way... )

[Lightning]

Wow!   Clearly TWC and CSU are predicting for El Nino to be in place, making this a relatively inactive hurricane season.  (Now watch both of them blow it the other way... )

Oh no, I hope not. I hope they are right.

[toxictwister00]

El Nino does typically lower chances of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, however, if there is to be any development this season with an El Nino present I would look to homebrew stuff in the Gulf. Nothing major, but I can see a few tropical storms or maybe a weak hurricane spinning up there.

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but I think either an El Nino was developing or already in progress during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season wasn't it? If so, both of those seasons were very active and record breaking. So an El Nina or La Nina doesn't 100% determine how bad the season will overall be. Heck, look at the past 5 years where a La Nina was around and we couldn't get crap to form because of a barrage of dry air and wind shear stagnating the Atlantic Basin.

[Lightning]

El Nino does typically lower chances of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, however, if there is to be any development this season with an El Nino present I would look to homebrew stuff in the Gulf. Nothing major, but I can see a few tropical storms or maybe a weak hurricane spinning up there.

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but I think either an El Nino was developing or already in progress during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season wasn't it? If so, both of those seasons were very active and record breaking. So an El Nina or La Nina doesn't 100% determine how bad the season will overall be. Heck, look at the past 5 years where a La Nina was around and we couldn't get crap to form because of a barrage of dry air and wind shear stagnating the Atlantic Basin.

No, actually a La Nina typically enhances tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, there was neither La Nina, nor El Nino last year. There was a La Nina in 2010-2011 and a weaker one in 2012. As for the the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, a weak La Nina was in progress for 2005. There was indeed an El Nino during the 2004 season, but it was weak and not strong enough to limit the activity in the Atlantic.

[WeatherWitness]

NOAA is also predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.

[toxictwister00]

Maybe they have always done this and I never paid much attention to it before, but why is the range for predicted named storms below and above average? That doesn't make any sense, seems like they're trying to have it both ways. Also the named storms this year is practically a carbon copy of 2008 tic for tac. Only Ike, Gustav and Paloma were retired and replaced.



There are some memorable names on this list though: Dolly, Fay, Hanna, Marco (Polo). I'll never forget Marco because of how it was super tiny!


NOTE: Yes, I looked at the pie chart, but still...I would think the range would have been 8-11, not 8-13.

[Lightning]

NOAA is also predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.

I hope their forecast is absolutely correct. Now granted, it only takes one (such as Andrew) to make landfall, and have a major impact on an area.

[Metarvo]

They've finally caught up to reality and started forecasting below-normal hurricane seasons.  The last few above-normal seasons that have been predicted washed out, so to speak, so the below-average forecast is quite believable.  I note that I'm not necessarily rooting for more hurricanes; they can be impressive to watch on radar out over the ocean, but they wreak havoc when they hit land.

[Lightning]

They've finally caught up to reality and started forecasting below-normal hurricane seasons. 

I think they actually want above average seasons so they can say that it's due to man-made global warming/climate change.

[SamRichardson92]

[gt1racerlHDl]

Compared to Amanda at her peak of 155mph (190mph)

Advisory #12 - 8am PDT
Wind Speed: 155mph (Gust 190mph)
Movement: N at 2mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 932MB
Location: 11.8° N, 111.1° W

[toxictwister00]

1. Updated:  Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland.  However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight.  Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[SamRichardson92]

Short lived TS Christina has formed!

(time sensitive)

[toxictwister00]

Arthur in the works?

1. A broad low pressure area located about 120 miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents