TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: SamRichardson92 on May 12, 2014, 07:01:30 AM
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I know it's early but The Weather Channel Professional Services Division has already put it's forecast out so.
(http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/04/ffab38bf-c542-4081-b974-7871b3a15fc4_320x180.jpg)
(http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/03/0372da35-ef16-4c6a-9ab2-b97cdb81844a_320x180.jpg)
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Wow! :blink: Clearly TWC and CSU are predicting for El Nino to be in place, making this a relatively inactive hurricane season. (Now watch both of them blow it the other way... )
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Wow! :blink: Clearly TWC and CSU are predicting for El Nino to be in place, making this a relatively inactive hurricane season. (Now watch both of them blow it the other way... )
Oh no, I hope not. :no: I hope they are right.
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El Nino does typically lower chances of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, however, if there is to be any development this season with an El Nino present I would look to homebrew stuff in the Gulf. Nothing major, but I can see a few tropical storms or maybe a weak hurricane spinning up there.
Also correct me if I'm wrong, but I think either an El Nino was developing or already in progress during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season wasn't it? If so, both of those seasons were very active and record breaking. So an El Nina or La Nina doesn't 100% determine how bad the season will overall be. Heck, look at the past 5 years where a La Nina was around and we couldn't get crap to form because of a barrage of dry air and wind shear stagnating the Atlantic Basin.
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El Nino does typically lower chances of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, however, if there is to be any development this season with an El Nino present I would look to homebrew stuff in the Gulf. Nothing major, but I can see a few tropical storms or maybe a weak hurricane spinning up there.
Also correct me if I'm wrong, but I think either an El Nino was developing or already in progress during the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season wasn't it? If so, both of those seasons were very active and record breaking. So an El Nina or La Nina doesn't 100% determine how bad the season will overall be. Heck, look at the past 5 years where a La Nina was around and we couldn't get crap to form because of a barrage of dry air and wind shear stagnating the Atlantic Basin.
No, actually a La Nina typically enhances tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, there was neither La Nina, nor El Nino last year. There was a La Nina in 2010-2011 and a weaker one in 2012. As for the the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, a weak La Nina was in progress for 2005. There was indeed an El Nino during the 2004 season, but it was weak and not strong enough to limit the activity in the Atlantic.
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NOAA is also predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.
(http://s30.postimg.org/rv3m1xurl/NOAAHurricane2014.jpg)
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Maybe they have always done this and I never paid much attention to it before, but why is the range for predicted named storms below and above average? That doesn't make any sense, seems like they're trying to have it both ways. Also the named storms this year is practically a carbon copy of 2008 tic for tac. Only Ike, Gustav and Paloma were retired and replaced.
(http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/images/2014_14OFT.jpg)
There are some memorable names on this list though: Dolly, Fay, Hanna, Marco (Polo). I'll never forget Marco because of how it was super tiny!
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/Tropical_Storm_Marco_on_October_6_2008.jpg/640px-Tropical_Storm_Marco_on_October_6_2008.jpg)
NOTE: Yes, I looked at the pie chart, but still...I would think the range would have been 8-11, not 8-13.
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NOAA is also predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.
([url]http://s30.postimg.org/rv3m1xurl/NOAAHurricane2014.jpg[/url])
I hope their forecast is absolutely correct. Now granted, it only takes one (such as Andrew) to make landfall, and have a major impact on an area.
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They've finally caught up to reality and started forecasting below-normal hurricane seasons. The last few above-normal seasons that have been predicted washed out, so to speak, so the below-average forecast is quite believable. I note that I'm not necessarily rooting for more hurricanes; they can be impressive to watch on radar out over the ocean, but they wreak havoc when they hit land.
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They've finally caught up to reality and started forecasting below-normal hurricane seasons.
I think they actually want above average seasons so they can say that it's due to man-made global warming/climate change.
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(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropprjpath01_ltst_5nhpao_enus_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropical/map_tropinfo01_ltst_5nhpao_enus_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-02_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
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Compared to Amanda at her peak of 155mph (190mph)
Advisory #12 - 8am PDT
Wind Speed: 155mph (Gust 190mph)
Movement: N at 2mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 932MB
Location: 11.8° N, 111.1° W
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1. Updated: Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland. However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight. Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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Short lived TS Christina has formed!
(time sensitive)
(http://s.imwx.com/dru/2014/06/6092781e-9a54-4864-83cc-3755a4b7017d_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-05_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-06_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
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Arthur in the works?
1. A broad low pressure area located about 120 miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with
a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of
Melbourne, Florida. However, surface pressures are falling, and
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days. A tropical depression is
likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward and northeastward near the
southeastern United States coast. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Graphical changes coming to the TWO on the NHC website effective tomorrow afternoon btw...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140630_pa_FiveDayOutlookGraphic.pdf (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140630_pa_FiveDayOutlookGraphic.pdf)
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First Tropical Depression of the Atlantic Hurricane season has arrived.
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Deja Vu?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
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Deja Vu?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
Well, according to this, it doesn't look like we'll see Bertha anytime soon, at least not in the near future.
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.
1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts
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Interest in an Eastern Atlantic tropical wave is awakening...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave is located about 420 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. The associated shower activity is limited
and disorganized, and development should be slow to occur over the
next couple of days. By the middle of this week, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
gradual development over the central tropical Atlantic as the
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Roberts
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The wave has a high (70%) chance of developing into a Depression or storm.
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Yea, we may have Tropical Storm Bertha in a few days. Models are picking up on this invest, some more aggressive than others in the long range.
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Agreement of at least a moderate TS (50-65 MPH winds). Some models make it a borderline Cat 1 hurricane.
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Double Post: Cooler waters and a hint of dry air have just destroyed the convection.
Non time-sensitive image: (http://i.imgur.com/47xu76i.gif)
Convection GONE
Water Vapor: (http://i.imgur.com/ri6ya9T.gif)
Lots of dry air and not much moist air
Wind Map: (http://i.imgur.com/Sq12MlZ.gif)
Note a clear circulation but has weak winds. Also the convection has been destroyed by the dry air in image two.
Take a vote: In 36 hours what will it be? TD #3, TS Bertha
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I still could see a TD #3 out of this, but I'm not too confident in a "Bertha" right about now. :no:
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BTW, I did static non updating images because I like to comeback and look at them.
EDIT: Update on images tomorrow morning... or when I get to them.
Edit2: The storm's convection has not increased but is steady.
EDIT3: This is very intresting.... http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/archive.asp?product=mpswtcke&storm_identifier=AL932014 (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/archive.asp?product=mpswtcke&storm_identifier=AL932014)
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Double Post:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
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We got Bertha! :dance: 45 MPH Winds, 1008 MB pressure.
Official Topic: https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/tropical-storm-bertha-%282014%29/ (https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/tropical-storm-bertha-%282014%29/)
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Models hinting at "Cristobal" by this time next week...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
GFS 18z Run (American Model)
(http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif)
GEM 12z Run (Canadian Model)
(http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014081912/gem_mslp_uv850_96L_33.png)
Current Intensity Forecast (time sensitive)
(http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962014_inten.png)
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Current Model Guidance tracks are keeping Invest 96L north of Hispanola enough to avoid any significant land interaction. Also attached below is the current intensity forecast from these model guidance.
I don't even want to post an image of what the 18z HWRF showed, it's truly a textbook example of a worse case scenario. Plus I'm sure it's all hype given we still don't have a definite accuracy of the center of circulation yet.
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The storm is getting more organized and a rotation may be present on radar:
(http://i.imgur.com/U03IxuF.gif)
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We now have Tropical Depression Four. (Soon expected to become Cristobal)
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Wasn't sure if I should make a new topic on this or not, but...
Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific is yet another major hurricane in that region - a strong Category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph! Looks very pretty on satellite. The storm is not expected to impact any land, however.
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13E/imagery/vis-animated.gif)
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13E/imagery/rb-animated.gif)
(http://s29.postimg.org/eioq73tiv/144944_W5_NL_sm.gif)
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Latest adv on Marie 918MB with 160mph winds http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-108.71,17.25,2048 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-108.71,17.25,2048)
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Howdy Dolly? Perhaps Edouard and Fay as well...
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Forecaster Blake
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TD 6 has formed. Expected to become Edouard later today...No threat to land is expected as it will remain a fish storm.
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Well, the Atlantic hurricane season was indeed rather quiet as predicted. The Eastern Pacific season was way more active, which means that the Atlantic's activity will suffer due to increased wind shear from the outflow of those tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. I'll lock this topic as the seasons are long over now.