Hurricane Central 2014

[toxictwister00]

Models hinting at "Cristobal" by this time next week...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

GFS 18z Run (American Model)


GEM 12z Run (Canadian Model)


Current Intensity Forecast (time sensitive)

[toxictwister00]

Current Model Guidance tracks are keeping Invest 96L north of Hispanola enough to avoid any significant land interaction. Also attached below is the current intensity forecast from these model guidance. 

I don't even want to post an image of what the 18z HWRF showed, it's truly a textbook example of a worse case scenario. Plus I'm sure it's all hype given we still don't have a definite accuracy of the center of circulation yet.

[esc1010]

The storm is getting more organized and a rotation may be present on radar:

[toxictwister00]

We now have Tropical Depression Four. (Soon expected to become Cristobal)

[WeatherWitness]

Wasn't sure if I should make a new topic on this or not, but...

Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific is yet another major hurricane in that region - a strong Category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph!  Looks very pretty on satellite.  The storm is not expected to impact any land, however.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Latest adv on Marie 918MB with 160mph winds http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-108.71,17.25,2048

[toxictwister00]

Howdy Dolly? Perhaps Edouard and Fay as well...



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.  Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[toxictwister00]

TD 6 has formed. Expected to become Edouard later today...No threat to land is expected as it will remain a fish storm.

[phw115wvwx]

Well, the Atlantic hurricane season was indeed rather quiet as predicted.  The Eastern Pacific season was way more active, which means that the Atlantic's activity will suffer due to increased wind shear from the outflow of those tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific.  I'll lock this topic as the seasons are long over now.