Hurricane Central 2012

[toxictwister00]

On a side note: It can't be me, but I think this invest might be one to reckoned with despite being a long ways off, The US doesn't seem to have the best luck when it comes to "I" named storms. (ex: Isodore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Irene, etc.) Igor (2010) is an exception being it was a major hurricane and remained a fish.

And of course I would run across this at another forum.

[Donovan]

Spending a short amount of time looking over models tonight. Noticing that the Invest 94L appears to track near the East coast of the US, but it's way too early to tell right now. However, if this track did play out, wouldn't be so good for some of us.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 96L will probably become TD 10 or "Joyce" in a couple of days. Up to 60% (CODE RED) as of the 8am TWO. I don't expect 95L to become nothing more than it is now, I'm surprised it's still a CODE ORANGE.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Invest 96L will probably become TD 10 or "Joyce" in a couple of days. Up to 60% (CODE RED) as of the 8am TWO. I don't expect 95L to become nothing more than it is now, I'm surprised it's still a CODE ORANGE.

I can't wait to see Invest 96L's model runs.

[Mr. Rainman]

We should probably see it as a blessing, but just to note that the Atlantic has not seen a Category 5 hurricane since Felix, which was back in 2007. We'll have to keep watch on things for the rest of the year, but assuming nothing big really blows up, we could go 5 years without a Category 5 hurricane.

[TWCToday]

We should probably see it as a blessing, but just to note that the Atlantic has not seen a Category 5 hurricane since Felix, which was back in 2007. We'll have to keep watch on things for the rest of the year, but assuming nothing big really blows up, we could go 5 years without a Category 5 hurricane.

Time sure does fly!

[toxictwister00]

Haven't been watching this one, but it could be fun (or a headache looking at the models).

[gt1racerlHDl]

Could we have Leslie in the next 2 days? 50% Orange Chance

[Localonthe8s]

This year IMO, has become more like last year. Lots of fish storms. Hard to believe Irene struck the Mid-Atlantic last year at this time. Irene was something our area was NOT prepared for

[gt1racerlHDl]

70% for Leslie

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[toxictwister00]

Not that it matters much because it's going to be a fish, but here's Invest 99L, it may have a chance at becoming Michael.

[phw115wvwx]

Here's the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far by the numbers:

Tropical Storms:  13  (Average:  11)
Hurricanes:  7  (Average:  6)
Major Hurricanes:  0  (Average:  2)

This season is officially above average, and we're only halfway done!  Micheal may become the first major hurricane, so we may start adding to that last row soon.  I don't think any of us expected these results at the halfway point!

[TWCToday]

Here's the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far by the numbers:

Tropical Storms:  13  (Average:  11)
Hurricanes:  7  (Average:  6)
Major Hurricanes:  0  (Average:  2)

This season is officially above average, and we're only halfway done!  Micheal may become the first major hurricane, so we may start adding to that last row soon.  I don't think any of us expected these results at the halfway point!

Its been an odd year. A lot of relatively small storms. The ACE values so far have been dead low. Around 50 last time I looked. Michael will surely help boost it a bit but its one of the lowest storm to ace ratios that I have seen.

[phw115wvwx]

Its been an odd year. A lot of relatively small storms. The ACE values so far have been dead low. Around 50 last time I looked. Michael will surely help boost it a bit but its one of the lowest storm to ace ratios that I have seen.

ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy if anyone else is wondering) is really the product of duration and intensity as the formula takes the sum of the square of all wind speeds for all active storms every six hours throughout an entire season.  The longest-lived storm so far is Isaac, but it only lasted 9.5 days.  Most storms this season haven't lasted a week and have been relatively weak.  Add in the fact that we have yet to record a major hurricane, and now you see why the ACE is so low.

[toxictwister00]

Not sure what to make of this one yet...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH
AND MONDAY.