Hurricane Central 2012

[phw115wvwx]

I'm waiting until anything develops before giving any confidence whatsoever on a tropical cyclone impacting us later in August.  All the models are horrible with predicting tropical cyclone formation and track until you actually have an organized cyclone develop where you can input data from reconnaissance flights and ship reports.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 92L is looking more interesting. The GFS gets to about 80W in the Caribbean, the key thing is it keeps it in tact that far west, just two days ago it lost it once it got to about 40W (which it's not far from right now)

[Trevor]

Here's where i think the Invest will go

Not to be a debbie downer on you Alex, but I think that type of track is the least likely to happen eventhough I see the 00z ECMWF shows a track like that much further west and closer to the east coast and that's only because it shows a stronger storm. This invest would have to be a lot stronger than it is so what weakness there is from the CA high can pull it northward in that direction so since it's still relatively weak it should continue to travel along the steering currents westward. The bigger question here is not where it's going, but will it survive getting there? Models still show this invest being killed like pesticide once it's in the Caribbean. (ECMWF kills it once it's in the Bahamas) CMC still wants to keep it going at hr 144 it's in the Bahamas.

EDIT: 6z GFS showed a Hurricane Dean (2007) type track, taking the invest into the Yucatan/Mexico. It also showed a fish storm "Florence" floating around in the the Central Atlantic.



CODE RED NOW

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

EDIT #2: 12z GFS still aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula as the prime landfall target.

All I have to say is, props to you, Tavores. You hit the nail on the head!

[toxictwister00]

Thanks Trevor, but I don't think I did anything different from what others were expecting/forecasting. 

In the meantime check out this huge, vigorus wave about to emerge into the Atlantic. Looks like a TD already. This is the best one I've seen since the Cape Verde storms have gotten started up.


EDIT: I'm still waiting this Invest, although it's long term future is somewhat bleak...

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[WeatherWitness]

***
Hi everyone:

This is just a quick note reminding you all NOT to change the title of a tropical cyclone topic when you post.  From what I have seen on the topics for specific storms previously, this is what we have done in the past.  When a tropical system has been updgraded from a depression to a storm and/or a storm to a hurricane, then an admin/moderator or the topic's starter may change the name on the first post, thus affecting all the subsequent posts.  However, when a storm has been downgraded, please do NOT change the topic title (on your single post or on the first post in the topic) back to storm and/or depression.  This is so we can keep track of the strongest intensity the storm reached in its lifecycle.

I hope this made sense.  It's a little hard to explain, but since we've done this in previous years, I think most of you know what I'm talking about.  Thanks.
***

[Mr. Rainman]

We should have Gordon soon.

1. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Trevor]

I see Gordon taking a similar track as Ernesto, if not a little farther north. Maybe a landfall on the TX/Mexico border. Not completely sure yet. I guess time will tell.

[toxictwister00]

For Invest 92L

A fairly wide spread, but most still take it in the direction of the Caribbean or the direction of the Bahamas. Only a couple tank it into Central America. A couple look like they are going in the direction of recurving


Mostly recurves/fish storms from these set of top 10 analogs (NOTE: These will be updating just like the 1st and 3rd maps)


Most get this to a least a TD or TS in about 2 days.

[Mr. Rainman]

Well, I didn't expect this. Despite increasing signs of El Nino, NOAA revised its season predictions upwards.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/09/noaa-raises-prediction-for-named-storms/?hpt=hp_t1
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120809_atlantic_hurricane_season_update.html

Prediction Revision
12-17 Named Storms
5-8 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

Orginal Revision
9-15 Named Storms
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes

[toxictwister00]

That's actually not far off from my preliminary prediction of 15 I believe it was. It wasn't an "official" forecast however so here it is below.

My 2012 Hurricane Season Forecast
14 Total storms
6 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

So far...
6 tropical storms
2 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes

EDIT: Wasn't there a developing El Nino during the 2004 Hurricane Season? I would have to take time to check to make sure, but I'm pretty sure there have been seasons that were active/above average with an El Nino developing in the shadows.

[gt1racerlHDl]

50% Chance of Development

2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA.  THE LOW IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[toxictwister00]

The tropics are about to fire up once again starting with a CV storm about to exit the African Coast in a couple of days. This system specifically looks to be a fish, but something I found interesting from the 12z GFS today is it starts to try to build a ridge back to the west in the Central Atlantic forcing potential "Helene" more WNW towards the East Coast of the US, but then it breaks down and "Helene" recurves avoiding a East Coast Hit.

We still have about 8-10 days to watch and see how this evoles before worrying about this. It's gonna depend largely on how the ridges/troughs work in tandem with eachother once we reach this timeframe. So for now this is all just gossip.

Trackwise, the 12z ECMWF is on par with the 12z GFS with system, but the ECMWF goes more ballistic on strength and blows this up into a 968mb hurricane by day 10 (which obviously takes some credence away from it being that it's so far out)

EDIT: Keep an eye on something homebrewed in the Gulf as well by former Tropical Depression 7, NHC has this area at 40% chance of regeneration. This COULD become "Helene" or "Issac".

[gt1racerlHDl]

I checked the Falmers Almanac and was surprised to see this

September 12th-15th. Hurricane threat Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts.

16th-19th. A tropical disturbance dawdles off the coast. Rain, then fair, and cooler

Hurricane Joyce?

[toxictwister00]

Invest 94L I suspect will be "Isaac" by this time tomorrow or Monday. It's really getting it's act together. 
I believe RECON is planning to investigate the invest tomorrow.

WARNING: THIS IS STILL IN THE FANTASY RANGE 12z GFS today shows this as being a Carolinas hit and basically running parallel right up the East Coast as a strong hurricane similar to Irene (2011) track wise. Last night the Canadian was on team GFS, we'll see if it's the case today and whether or not the Euro joins. There was MAJOR disagreements between the GFS/Euro last night, the 00z Euro decided to keep this invest as an weak storm/open wave traveling through the Caribbean and into the Central Gulf.

On a side note: It can't be me, but I think this invest might be one to reckoned with despite being a long ways off, The US doesn't seem to have the best luck when it comes to "I" named storms. (ex: Isodore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Irene, etc.) Igor (2010) is an exception being it was a major hurricane and remained a fish.

[Zach]

You know, maybe NOAA upped their named storm predictions for our Atlantic basin because the next one down the line is Isaac and it was around this time last year when Irene formed..