Hurricane Central 2012

[TWCCraig]

Has anyone seen the latest GFS run (18z)? We already have TD Five to worry about, but now, the GFS is showing a new storm, possibly a hurricane through the mid to late weeks of August. Now this way to far out to say if this storm will ever form, considering that this also the first GFS run to show this storm. Here's Friday Aug 17th, 18z:

[toxictwister00]

Actually it was on the 6z run also, but much further east out in the Central Atlantic. However, every run since the 18z yesterday is still showing something around the 17th anywhere down near the Bahamas to the Lesser Antilles.

[toxictwister00]

NHC has a CODE YELLOW on another disturbance GFS/ECMWF had shown quickly ramping up into Florence. It looks impressive so far.

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Localonthe8s]

Good to see activity heating up inthe Tropics

[toxictwister00]

Just to update, the Cape Verde disturbance I posted and said was Code Yellow has been upgraded to CODE ORANGE - 30% chance. A CODE YELLOW - 10% chance has been added for the disturbance over the Bahamas also.

[phw115wvwx]

Just to update, the Cape Verde disturbance I posted and said was Code Yellow has been upgraded to CODE ORANGE - 30% chance. A CODE YELLOW - 10% chance has been added for the disturbance over the Bahamas also.

The Cape Verde tropical wave looks more interesting to me than Ernesto.  Go figure.

[Mr. Rainman]

Both invests in the Atlantic have increased chances of development. The invest close to the Southeast coastline has been bumped up to 20% because of improved conditions in its path over the weekend. The Cape Verde disturbance is bumped up to 50%, but it is important to note that this invest has a shortening window of oppurtunity before dry air downstream begins to affect it.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 91L has my interest...at least maybe it'll bring some welcome rains to areas that need it. I'm losing patience with Ernesto already.

[TWCCraig]

I'm not surprised about the new invest. I saw that same system on the NAM making landfall in Florida. Might not develop into much though.

[Mr. Rainman]

Florida invest remains at 20%. It's window of oppurtunity is shrinking as it continues to near land.

The Cape Verde disturbance remains the star of the show, with chance of develop now at 70%. NHC may begin issuing advisories on it tonight if current organizational trends continue. Again, dry air looks to be a factor in a few days regardless of earlier development.

[Donovan]

Feeling the impacts this morning from the tropical wave that was over the Bahama's earlier this week. Rain showers all over the place and a bit breezy.

[TWCToday]

Feeling the impacts this morning from the tropical wave that was over the Bahama's earlier this week. Rain showers all over the place and a bit breezy.

It sure has been humid thats for sure! Yuck!

[toxictwister00]

Fwiw, the 00z GFS still shows there is a Hurricane (probably major status) affects the East Coast between August 20-22. Again, WAY out there, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me. We have plenty of time to watch it starting as early as this Friday as that's when the wave exits off the African coast. It also turns it into a tropical storm as soon as it's out in the water.

[toxictwister00]

New area of interest...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[TWCCraig]

Fwiw, the 00z GFS still shows there is a Hurricane (probably major status) affects the East Coast between August 20-22. Again, WAY out there, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me. We have plenty of time to watch it starting as early as this Friday as that's when the wave exits off the African coast. It also turns it into a tropical storm as soon as it's out in the water.

I saw that same system days ago on the GFS impacting the east coast and made a post of it earlier in this thread (top of the page), it's been showing up on almost every GFS run so I'm confident in it's formation, not so confident on it's track, I give it a 40% chance of impacting the east coast.