Hurricane Central 2012

[toxictwister00]

Going long range, August looks to likely pick up where May/June left off. 00z GFS last night showed two Cape Verde disturbances and both look to develop to at least TS status ("Ernesto" was a Fish storm this run while "Florence" looks like it could pose a threat to landmass further downstream that run)With that being said however, anything showing up on the Global models so far out is mainly nothing but gossip at best.

[Mr. Rainman]

Yeah, GFS likes to start daydreaming like crazy after about a week out. In the short range, though - 40% chance of development in the open Atlantic.

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT
GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[phw115wvwx]

If we move into an El Niño pattern this fall as indicators in the Pacific are hinting now, you're not going to see August or the rest of the season be fairly active in the Atlantic.  We would be looking for one big storm out of a few to hit us.  The Eastern Pacific would take off in activity for this situation.

[toxictwister00]

I mentioned how the GFS was showing Cape Verde disturbances from now going into early August. Looks like we got one with a lemon drop on it. This is also the one the GFS has been showing slowly developing somewhat before basically disappearing into oblivion once it's in the Central Caribbean.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[phw115wvwx]

It seems like both basins have come to a halt lately.  We may be waiting until August for some reemergence of activity.

[Mr. Rainman]

Not so fast...

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[TWCCraig]

If this area of low pressure were to develop in to something, we could have Ernesto soon. Here are the spaghetti models:

 

[TWCToday]

If this area of low pressure were to develop in to something, we could have Ernesto soon. Here are the spaghetti models:

 

Fond memories with the last Ernesto in 06.
https://public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pDvTTeVdV7eiglBPi116fTqR_2Fqh4UkKnOdha4qIonFH0LaqDaXSTYkZzGpz-isk5xBB-B8ihTV81DE1kOJP8w/waves%20forecast.gif

[toxictwister00]

Not that this means anything, but below is a list of hurricanes/tropical storms that were in the current track/position of where invest 99L is right now, there are some interesting ones listed too. I'll redo this list and narrow it if/when we have a TD that has developed.
NOTE: I only visited the years of the 1981-2011 period. I also want to make it clear that even though there are some scary names listed, I'm not using this list to say this invest will turn into any of these tropical cyclones, this list is based on tracks ONLY.

Hurricane Karen (2007)
Hurricane Emily (2005)
Hurricane Ivan (2004) - Formed further east (around 32W)
Tropical Storm Nicholas (2003)
Tropical Storm Dolly (2002) - Formed further east (around 30W)
Hurricane Bertha (1996)
Tropical Storm Bret (1993) - There are a couple of GFS ensembles that have a similar track which is why I'm including this one.
Hurricane Andrew (1992) - The Canadian yesterday I believe showed a similar track to this one, but I don't think it had the invest hitting FL or the SE coast for that matter.
Tropical Storm Danny (1991) - Formed further east (around 30W)

Out of all of these, I personally think Hurricane Emily and Tropical Storm Bret would be the best analog tracks going by the ensemble model tracks right now.

Hurricane Allen (1980) is another good analog track, it's similar to Hurricane Emily; I also think this type of track is feasible.

[toxictwister00]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[gt1racerlHDl]

Here's where i think the Invest will go

[Trevor]

I disagree. All of the models are trending for a landfall in the Gulf. I think overall that it is far too early to come to conclusions on paths.

[Mr. Rainman]

I disagree. All of the models are trending for a landfall in the Gulf. I think overall that it is far too early to come to conclusions on paths.

You also have to keep in mind until hard-core data on a system and a true center of circulation is found, models can only be taken with a grain of salt.

[TWCToday]

Anybodys guess at this point but its fun to try and predict it this far out It would be fun to see Ernesto II hit the same areas

[toxictwister00]

Here's where i think the Invest will go

Not to be a debbie downer on you Alex, but I think that type of track is the least likely to happen eventhough I see the 00z ECMWF shows a track like that much further west and closer to the east coast and that's only because it shows a stronger storm. This invest would have to be a lot stronger than it is so what weakness there is from the CA high can pull it northward in that direction so since it's still relatively weak it should continue to travel along the steering currents westward. The bigger question here is not where it's going, but will it survive getting there? Models still show this invest being killed like pesticide once it's in the Caribbean. (ECMWF kills it once it's in the Bahamas) CMC still wants to keep it going at hr 144 it's in the Bahamas.

EDIT: 6z GFS showed a Hurricane Dean (2007) type track, taking the invest into the Yucatan/Mexico. It also showed a fish storm "Florence" floating around in the the Central Atlantic.



CODE RED NOW

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

EDIT #2: 12z GFS still aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula as the prime landfall target.