Hurricane Central 2012

[Eric]

Flooding isn't a good thing, but a drought isn't, either.  There's obviously no such thing as "ideal" in real life, but I'd personally like to see a little more rain than parched land and wildfires all over the place.

[toxictwister00]

I couldn't sleep tonight so I figured I would provide an update on what some of the models are showing.

Potential "Debby" Update
Thursday, June 21, 2012 7:00am
0z GFS - Basically the same as the 12z run, but I noticed a secondary low shows up behind what could be "Debby" traveling a similar track across Central Florida. "Debby" is weak when it travels across FL, in fact it doesn't really intensify until it's out in the Atlantic, a few hundreds of miles off the East Coast.

Two lows? - Hour 108 Monday, June 25, 2012


0z Euro - Didn't waffle much from the 12z run. It stills shows a 988mb low heading for FL. An East Coast Trough blocks "Debby" from getting any further north and west. It rides along the periphery of the trough before pulled in NW into New England/Canada at the end of the run. "Debby" bombs down to an impressive 970mb low at it's peak! Everyone on the shores of FL to NE would need to be vigilant on the high risk of rip currents "Debby" would cause in this scenario. Something else to note, the EURO is much slower than the GFS by about 3 days, "Debby" wouldn't directly make landfall over FL until next Thursday, while on the GFS, it would be next Monday.

Striking FL (North of Tampa) - Hour 168 Thursday, June 28, 2012


A Tease for those of you in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic...
Saturday, June 30, 2012



And Lastly the 0z Canadian: The total opposite of the EURO in terms of track.
I gotta give it to the Canadian, it's holding it's ground in sending "Debby" to Texas/Mexico. You're probably wondering, "Why is the Canadian so different from the GFS/EURO on the track?" It's mainly because of the position of the ridge across the Central Plains. "Debby" tries to undercut that ridge by traveling around the southern periphery of it even though a trough along the Eastern US moves in, it's later than the GFS/EURO and "Debby" is too far west to be influenced by the incoming digging trough and be pulled NEward towards FL. "Debby" at her peak bombs down to 975mb and that's only about four hundred miles off of the TX coast!



Thanks for reading and I hoped you all enjoyed.

[Trevor]

988mb, 970mb, and 985mb are all fairly impressive pressures for a tropical system. As Denis Phillips would say, I don't think it's anything to write home about just yet. Just keep an eye on it. It is a week away, but it does look interesting.

[Zach]

I'm not sure if this applies to tropical storms and depressions, but as a reminder, pressure has not had an impact on categorization of a storm since 2010, but instead, just the winds.

OT: Trevor, how do you know about Dennis Phillips?! If you're referring to the chief meteorologist of WFTS in Tampa that is.

[toxictwister00]

Yep, plenty of time to watch especially with all the model disagreement on the track and strength. NAM/UKMET are on the CMC's team while the NOGAPS is on the GFS/EURO's team. Hopefully some of this will start ironing out once there's actually some form of a closed circulation in the Gulf to track. If the EURO and CMC are showing pressures that low this early, it makes you wonder if that turns out not to be deep enough if it gets a good amount of time to get going in a favorable environment... 

I'm not sure if this applies to tropical storms and depressions, but as a reminder, pressure has not had an impact on categorization of a storm since 2010, but instead, just the winds.

OT: Trevor, how do you know about Dennis Phillips?! If you're referring to the chief meteorologist of WFTS in Tampa that is.

I'm aware of that , I hope my post from earlier doesn't give the impression of that being the case. We've had plenty of examples of this in the past and funny enough the ones I can think of off the top of my head are "I" storms (Ike, Ida, Irene, etc) I was just intrigued by how low it gets on the EURO/CMC considering it's not well defined yet.

[Localonthe8s]

We now have Hurricane Chris as of the 11am advisory

[toxictwister00]

We now have Hurricane Chris as of the 11am advisory

Really? Heh, I thought this thing was gonna be long gone by now. I haven't been paying it much attention anyway.

[Mr. Rainman]

Invest in the Atlantic is now up to 50% and conditions are looking good for continued development in the long term. This could get interesting for the Gulf Coast.

Looks like Hurricane Amnesia is finally over. Three storms so far with 2 affecting the U.S. with either heavy rainfall or gusty winds, and if Debby forms...well.

[Trevor]

OT: Trevor, how do you know about Dennis Phillips?! If you're referring to the chief meteorologist of WFTS in Tampa that is.

Haha, I heard about his nightly weather chats off of Mike's weather page. I watch his live stream almost every night.

[toxictwister00]

I'm thinking this Hurricane Season will be above average. One reason being because El Nino hasn't kicked in yet, were still in Neutral conditions.

Just a Preliminary Prediction...
16 storms
10 Tropical Storms
6 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

Also this is way, way out there, but the GFS keeps showing Cape Verde disturbances for the latter end of this month into the first week of July. Just something to think about once we get to that time period.

[Trevor]

The area in the Caribbean is now officially Invest 96. Spaghetti models should come soon.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Here's the updated spaghetti models

[toxictwister00]

Gotta love model madness, EURO jumped ship with the Canadian, now it wants to send the Invest to TX, but it's a good 7mb weaker than the 12z Canadian. (12z Canadian = 986mb and the 12z EURO = 993mb)

[Mr. Rainman]

Most intensity models take this thing to a strong tropical storm, but not to hurricane status.

[phw115wvwx]

NHC has increased the chances up to 50% of the new invest developing into something over the next 48 hours.  Here is one I would be worried about if I lived along the Gulf Coast.