Just a quick writeup I did on the tropical disturbance heading into the GOM. I left some tings out so this wouldn't be too long. I also broke it down into 3 categories.
Debby to Make A Debut In the Gulf Soon?
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 10:00pm ETFROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERCURRENTLY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.
WIND SHEAR...AS OF TODAY, WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH GREATLY REDUCES LITTLE IF ANY ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST. WIND SHEAR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN VERY HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, NORTHWESTERN CUBA, AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS REGION.
SEA SURFACE TEMPS...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF, TEMPS ARE RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80s EVENTHOUGH WE ARE ONLY 19 DAYS INTO HURRICANE SEASON. THIS IS WELL THAN ENOUGH FUEL FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO FEED OFF OF, BUT WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF WIND SHEAR NOT BEING FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM, SST WILL DO VERY LITTLE IN GETTING THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZED WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
RAIN/FLOODING PROSPECTS...WHETHER WE HAVE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, A TROPICAL STORM DEBBY, OR JUST AN OPEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS EARLY AS TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES COULD OCCUR FROM A LINE OF FORT MYERS TO FORT PIERCE, FL SOUTHWARD. AN ISOLATED AREA OF 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTH OF FORT PIERCE TO FT MYERS TO A TAMPA TO ORLANDO LINE CAN EXPECT TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 2 INCHES, A TRACE TO 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTH TO THE TAMPA/ORLANDO LINE ACCORDING TO THE HPC. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AREAS SUCH AS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON QUICKLY DISSIPATING IN IN THE EVENING. IF YOU LIVE IN A LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREA PLEASE TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY AND IF YOU'RE DRIVING AND OBSERVE FLOODED ROADWAYS, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
SUMMARY...OVERALL, I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO TRANSFORM INTO A TROPICAL STORM DEBBY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. I GIVE THIS DISTURBANCE A 20% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS AND A NEAR 0% CHANCE OF BECOMING DEBBY OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GOOD NEWS IS I EXPECT FLORIDA, PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME WELCOME, APPRECIATED RAINFALL OVER THE DURATION OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
