Hurricane Central 2012

[TWCCraig]

OOO!!! Wow, can't wait to see what happens! Most tracks take it to the northeast! 

[Mr. Rainman]

Still not going to make a topic, but Hurricane Bud in the Pacific is about to become quite a headache for our pals down in Mexico. Here's the track.

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect.

[Mr. Rainman]

Double post, sorry. But, did the Atlantic Basin EVER get the memo that the hurricane season didn't start until June 1st? We now have a 40% chance of development there. It looks like something could form on Saturday.

[Localonthe8s]

Since development is starting earlier and earlier by the years, maybe the hurricane ppl should move the Atlantic season start from June 1st to may 1st or somewhere in between

[TWCCraig]

Since development is starting earlier and earlier by the years, maybe the hurricane ppl should move the Atlantic season start from June 1st to may 1st or somewhere in between

I don't think that's likely to happen. The only reason why this season started early was because of favorable upper level environments, (except the fact that there's been a lot shear). SST's are just slightly above average in the Caribbean. In Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog, he said that it's more likely that this early season start is because of favorable environments. IMO, there's not enough support to push the season start day back a whole month. 

[toxictwister00]

Since development is starting earlier and earlier by the years, maybe the hurricane ppl should move the Atlantic season start from June 1st to may 1st or somewhere in between

I actually had the same thought a couple of times, but it might be better to leave it as is.

[phw115wvwx]

Here's my meteorological answer regarding what to do with the hurricane season dates:  Get rid of them altogether, because there is no such thing as a hurricane season!  The atmosphere will allow the development of a tropical cyclone whenever conditions are right irregardless of the time of year.  In the history of records kept for the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone has existed in every month of the year.

[Eric]

Here's my meteorological answer regarding what to do with the hurricane season dates:  Get rid of them altogether, because there is no such thing as a hurricane season!  The atmosphere will allow the development of a tropical cyclone whenever conditions are right irregardless of the time of year.  In the history of records kept for the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone has existed in every month of the year.

I like your thinking!  Except for the word "irregardless." 

[TWCmatthew]

Here's my meteorological answer regarding what to do with the hurricane season dates:  Get rid of them altogether, because there is no such thing as a hurricane season!  The atmosphere will allow the development of a tropical cyclone whenever conditions are right irregardless of the time of year.  In the history of records kept for the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone has existed in every month of the year.

Exactly, and same goes to what some people call "severe weather season."

[phw115wvwx]

A new invest in the Atlantic has a 60% chance of development.  We'll find out tomorrow if anything happens as NHC will release another special outlook on it.

Meanwhile, parts of Mexico are facing a nightmare situation as the second storm of the Eastern Pacific basin, Bud, has intensified to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph.  While it may weaken just before landfall, the NHC track forecast has Bud coming ashore, stalling out over land, and slowly turning around the opposite direction toward the ocean before dissipating just offshore.  There's going to be numerous mudslides, torrential rainfall, and destructive winds throughout this entire weekend for locations near Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.  Hurricane warnings are in effect for that area now, and I fear a lot of death and destruction could occur.

[toxictwister00]

Eerie thing is the GFS "hinted" about Alberto and possibly Beryl, a good 10-12 days out. (Not trackwise but still)

[Mr. Rainman]

That invest in the Atlantic now has a near 100% chance of development, and we could very likely have Tropical Depression 3 or Tropical Storm Beryl.

[Zach]

That invest in the Atlantic now has a near 100% chance of development, and we could very likely have Tropical Depression 3 or Tropical Storm Beryl.

I thought this would be TD1, because our first storm went right to Alberto, right?

[Mr. Rainman]

That invest in the Atlantic now has a near 100% chance of development, and we could very likely have Tropical Depression 3 or Tropical Storm Beryl.

I thought this would be TD1, because our first storm went right to Alberto, right?

Why I said 3, I have no idea. Sorry, TD 1.

[toxictwister00]

I think we'll have Beryl come the next advisory.