Hurricane Central 2012

[Zach]

I guess that includes me

[toxictwister00]

Very much so at the moment.

EDIT: Up to 70% now, wouldn't be surprised if we have a depression or "Debby" by tomorrow or Saturday at this rate.

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[TWCCraig]

Have you guys seen the 06z GFS run? Two lows????
EDIT: I know Tavores also brought this up earlier

[toxictwister00]

GFS is doing some peculiar things the past couple of runs. 00z run last night stalled "Debby" along the Gulf Coast for an entire week dying out because it's stuck between a ridge and a trough. I hope that doesn't happen, the immediate GC doesn't need that kind of rainfall for that long period of time. 

[Eric]

I hope that doesn't happen, the immediate GC doesn't need that kind of rainfall for that long period of time. 

I don't think any location needs a week's worth of heavy rainfall in a single go ever!

[Zach]

Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.

[toxictwister00]

What a hot mess.

[TWCCraig]

Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.

Zach, might I ask where did you get that KML?

[Zach]

Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.

Zach, might I ask where did you get that KML?

Gosh, I've had that KMZ file for so long I cant remember Sorry

[TWCCraig]

Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.

Zach, might I ask where did you get that KML?

Gosh, I've had that KMZ file for so long I cant remember Sorry

Hey! I found it, didn't take much either, nothing but a simple search on Google for "google earth weather kmz". Thanks for trying though 

[TWCCraig]

Sorry for double post

NHC now giving it a 90% chance of development.

[toxictwister00]

It looks better than it did this time yesterday. A buoy ENE of the supposed center reported winds at tropical storm force so it might skip depression status whenever it gets upgraded.

[toxictwister00]

  Expect Debby by 5pm advisory

AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,

[toxictwister00]

I hate to make a third consecutive post, but I noticed another area of interest has popped up in the Atlantic. Our First Cape Verde Disturbance to monitor.




1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[phw115wvwx]

The Atlantic basin is completely quiet, but there are two active storms in the Eastern Pacific basin right now.  Daniel became a Category 3 hurricane last night, but it appears to be weakening today.  Emilia will become a hurricane later tonight into tomorrow.  Both storms do not pose a threat to land, but they will both dissipate by the time they pass south of Hawaii.