Hurricane Central 2011

[toxictwister00]

Fast Bloomer...very little wind shear to tear it apart and no dry Saharan air in it's way. Not necessarily a bad thing, it might mean a fish if it develops too quickly. We'll see...if it develops maturely, it'll receive the "K" name "Katia".

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Mr. Rainman]

That invest just shot up to near 100% chance of development. Katia should be here by tomorrow.

[Localonthe8s]

Katia? Katrina much?

[Trevor]

Rita has become Rina
Wilma has become Whitney

[gt1racerlHDl]

now that the probability just shot up to about 100% i wonder what the track would look like.

[WeatherWitness]

As far as the names go, this hurricane season is pretty much caught up with the 2005 season. The sixth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's landfall (in Louisiana) is tomorrow, and we may have our "K" storm forming very soon.

Greek alphabet again, anyone?

[toxictwister00]

now that the probability just shot up to about 100% i wonder what the track would look like.

FISH, but always subject to change. if we end up with a set up like we had w/ Irene, it's gonna be a double whammy for the east coast.


12z/18z GFS - Out to Sea (Atlantic High is very weak, curve north/NNE)


12z European - Out To Sea (Hits Bermuda hard though)


Just a reminder: Both models showed Irene hitting somewhere in the GOM around this time range...

[toxictwister00]

"Lee" or "Maria" should be here by the weekend from the way it appears to be now.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

[phw115wvwx]

No one is allowed to post about a new storm topic until it has been officially declared by NHC through a public advisory.  It creates mass confusion and sets up for some legal issues if anyone tries to beat the only official source for tropical cyclones.  I am putting this suggestion into effect immediately.

[WeatherWitness]

Wow, from what the current paths show, it looks like Lee and Katia are going to run into each other towards the end of the week! I guess Lee will be post-tropical and will be "overthrown" by Katia if she does hit land, but areas such as NC and VA may want to watch out for two possible storms.

EDIT: Scratch that idea. From the models that Alex posted in the other thread, it looks like I'm completely wrong. Most models have Katia turning far north before it even comes to the U.S.

[toxictwister00]

Were not done yet folks! Maria may be coming soon.

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Early Models for Soon-To-Be Maria

[toxictwister00]

September is picking up where August left off. If we manage to get to the "O" name this month we'll be a month ahead of 2005 when in October that year "Ophelia" formed and hit NC. Also I believe we'll have TD 14 by the 5pm update.

[toxictwister00]

Invest 96L will probably be "Nate" by the 5pm advisory.

[toxictwister00]

I think we may have a good shot at making it all the way to the "W" storm this year which would be Whitney (Wilma's replacement). September looks to be active near the latter part of the month and I wouldn't be surprised if October is active also.