Hurricane Central 2011

[Pop Light Brown]

This is quite an observation...and you can see it on the Brownsville radar:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROM
THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED
MESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION.

From the forecast discussion of the 4 pm advisory.

[toxictwister00]

Not one, but two disturbances to keep us entertained!

Invest 91L - Up to 50%


Another disturbance - Only 0%

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.   

2. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Mr. Rainman]

The majority of the models are picking up 91L quite well...and the intensity models are in good agreement that this disturbance should achieve winds of 40 mph 24-36 hours from now.

[Eric]

Only 0%

Am I the only one who finds it impossible to read yellow text in here?

[toxictwister00]

Only 0%

Am I the only one who finds it impossible to read yellow text in here?

Sorry about that, I didn't think it would be that bright. It says Only 0%.

[Eric]

Only 0%

Am I the only one who finds it impossible to read yellow text in here?

Sorry about that, I didn't think it would be that bright. It says Only 0%.

Well, you never know until you try. 

[toxictwister00]

Much more organized this morning, I hardly recognize it from last night. We may have our "Emily" before today is over.

70% - HIGH Chance of Development

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOW
IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.   

[gt1racerlHDl]

i see Emily taking a similar path like Bill or Earl's Track but staying offshore.

Early prediction of Cat 3-4

[Eric]

That's generally what the models are saying, especially given the big high pressure in the Atlantic that's going to steer the storm as you indicated.

[toxictwister00]

There's still the scenario that the storm could remain a weak or moderate tropical storm which in that case would mean it won't be influenced steering wise by the trough that will settle into the Eastern portion of the US by late next week. It would head westward until it reaches the GOM, where it goes from there is a question mark. I'm hoping for the latter if it will mean Texas getting another chance at rainfall.

[Mr. Rainman]

Now 80% from NHC. Tropical depression possible in the next couple days.

That scenario for a move to the west is still around, but looking at the models again, they are starting to get more and more consistent with the turn to the northwest. They all generally agree on a landfall near the Windward Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic, before heading northwest. There are a few models that suggest a westward movement, so we'll see what happens.

Early prediction of Cat 3-4

I'm not so sure about that, actually...the models take it up to a borderline Cat 2, but then level it off or weaken it a little bit...assuming because of interaction with the Dominican Republic. Again, not sure. It'll be interesting, though...shear is almost non-existent in its path, and ocean temperatures are more than favorable for development of this thing.

[Eric]

Even though, as of the most recent report, the tropical wave that could become Emily had a 90% chance of developing into at least a depression, I'm starting to think that we'll have to wait a little longer than expected to see any real development.  I just looked at the latest satellite imagery, and the wave has lost a lot of convection over the past couple of hours.  We'll have to wait until tomorrow when the Sun comes back to see if this trend reverses itself.  Granted, since these expectations are given for two days out, it could still keep its 90% chance, but I think it's lost itself some time tonight.

[Mr. Rainman]

It's likely going through a cycle...it's been doing that quite a few times over the last few days. I don't think you really have anything to worry about...you'll likely see a tropical depression tomorrow sometime, possibly early Monday.

[Mike M]

If this storm's track holds true we may get some impact from this.

[Eric]

If this storm's track holds true we may get some impact from this.

Right now, the track is supposed to bring future-Emily just to the east of Florida.  Just like Bret, it will be far enough away so that we escape any actual impact, but it will be dragging drier air in around it.  Bret came just after I arrived in Florida, and, as a result, we really haven't had all that many of the thunderstorms that are supposed to be typical of Florida in the summer.  And, as a result, it has just been muggy as all get out, and the sun is just... brutal!